Bihar Elections: Exit Poll Round-up on English News Channels
Who is winning Bihar? Is it Nitish’s Grand Alliance or Modi-led NDA? We bring you what all the exit polls say.
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The biggest takeaway from the exit poll results is that the difference in vote share between the Grand Alliance and the NDA is not more than 2-4 per cent.
Chanakya is the only one that stands at the opposite end of the spectrum, giving the NDA 144 -166 seats. The halfway mark in the Bihar assembly is 122 and absolute majority is 162 seats. So if Chanakya does get it right, the NDA could well be forming the next government in Bihar.
At the other end of the exit poll spectrum is the ABP that gives the NDA 108 seats and the Grand Alliance 130 seats.
Will Nitish Kumar retain his throne or will the Modi wave send him to the Opposition benches in the Bihar Assembly? We will know when votes are counted this Sunday, November 8.
“No matter who comes to power, this is a victory for the voter because they have voted for development. Their vote was either for Nitish’s development or Modi’s proposed development,” says Zafar Sareshwala, Chancellor of Hyderabad-based Maulana Azad National Urdu University (MANUU).
Both Sides Say Confident of Two-thirds Majority
It is common for politicians to appear confident during elections. And irrespective of what the exit polls indicate, our politicians seem to be keeping this tradition alive.
JDU chief Sharad Yadav says he is confident that the Grand Alliance will get two-thirds majority and form the government.
BJP’s Shahnawaz Hussain has the same prediction for the NDA.
BJP President Amit Shah currently at 7 Race Course Road to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi after exit poll results are announced. Amit Shah retweeted Chanakya’s exit poll figures which give NDA the edge.
Hits and Misses by NDA and the Grand Alliance
“If Chanakya is right, it means both ‘mandalisation’ & ‘polarisation’ worked for BJP,” Neerja Chowdhury tells Times Now.
Chanakya had given 144-166 seats to the NDA and 64-92 to the Grand Alliance.
Senior journalist Sankarshan Thakur says, “The Bihar campaign has been a huge opportunity missed by the Congress party. They were the tail of a strong coalition. I think the fewer the Congress’ rallies, the better the alliance would do”.
Also Read: Exclusive: Giriraj Singh on Cows, Caste and Politics in Bihar
BJP MP and Union Minister of State for Small and Medium Enterprises, Giriraj Singh is no stranger to controversy. From telling those opposed to Narendra Modi to shift to Pakistan to alleging that all terrorists belong to one community to commenting on the colour of Sonia Gandhi’s skin, Singh fits right in the BJP’s long list loose tongues. In an exclusive interview to The Quint, Singh talks about beef, caste, BJP and Bihar.
Modi Not a Natural Choice: Surjit Bhalla
Psephologist Surjit Bhalla says, “How many voters who chose Narendra Modi as Prime Minister in the 2014 Lok Sabha election will go for him again? I would say zero. Now you go ahead. Do the math”.
Chanakya sticks its neck out, gives the NDA 144-166 seats and the Grand Alliance 74-92 seats.
Others will get anywhere between 2-8 seats.
Vote Percentage:
BJP+ 46% ± 3%
JDU+ 39% ± 3%
Others 15% ± 3%
In the final phase of polling, Bihar recorded 60 per cent voter turnout. This takes the overall turnout across five phases to 56.80 per cent.
The turnout in 2010 was 52.65 per cent.
NDTV reports that this time around the number of female voters was higher by 6 per cent compared to the number of male voters.
NDTV’s poll of exit polls predicts:
JDU+ 125 seats
BJP+ 110 seats
Others 8 seats
(based on data till 3 pm and three different polls)
The NewsX - CNX post poll survey prediction is out.
India Today - Cicero Exit Poll: Advantage JDU+
Out of the 243 seats, the India Today - Cicero exit poll predicts the Grand Alliance will be ahead in the race. This is according to figures as per 3 pm.
Total Tally:
BJP+ 101-121 seats
JDU+ 112 - 132 seats
Others 6 - 14 seats
Times Now - CVoter Exit Poll Result Out
Including the fifth phase of voting in Bihar till 2 pm, CVoter puts Nitish Kumar ahead in the race.
Seat Share:
BJP+ 111
JDU+ 122
Others 10
Vote Share
BJP 41%
JDU 42%
Others 17%
CVoter predicts Nitish Kumar is set to remain Bihar Chief Minister although BJP will emerge as the single largest party.
Nitish Kumar Thanks the Electorate
Breaking News: Clashes between workers of Nitish Kumar’s Grand Alliance and Modi’s NDA in Alinagar in Darbhanga.
Security forces have been called in.
What do the people of Bihar want? Will they choose Nitish Kumar as Chief Minister yet again or will they give Modi’s NDA a chance?
This is what the exit polls are saying as the fifth and final phase of polling comes to an end.
The fifth phase witnessed a turnout of over 60%. In the first phase, voter turnout was 57%, in the second 54.82%, it was 53.85% in the third phase and 58% in the fourth.
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Published: 05 Nov 2015,05:07 PM IST