The Biggest Challenge for Arvind Kejriwal & Delhi CM Atishi in Next 4 Months

How Arvind Kejriwal and Atishi work in the next 4 months will shape AAP's future.

(Vibhushita Singh/The Quint)

Atishi being sworn in as the chief minister of Delhi is a hugely important moment for the Aam Aadmi Party. What happens in the next four to five months until the Delhi Elections could shape AAP's future as a party.

Ever since AAP first came to power in Delhi in the winter of 2013 and more so after the 2015 win, Arvind Kejriwal has been both the national face of the party as well as the head of the Delhi government.

Now, for the first time, the positions have become split with Atishi now heading the government instead of Kejriwal.

This is both a challenge as well as opportunity for AAP.

The Temporary Successor Dilemma

Appointing a temporary successor is never easy for any political leader. The ideal candidate is a person who would do the job, keep the popularity of the government intact but without challenging the real leader.

Such attempts haven't been successful over the past decade or so. In 2014, Nitish Kumar resigned as CM and appointed Jitan Ram Manjhi in his place, hoping that giving Bihar a Mahadalit CM would be politically beneficial. However, the experiment backfired as Manjhi tried to assert himself at Kumar's expense.

More recently, Hemant Soren appointed Champai Soren as the CM of Jharkhand when he was put under arrest. The two fell out soon after Hemant Soren's return and Champai Soren is now in the BJP.

A more successful experiment was Jayalalithaa appointed O Panneerselvam as CM on three occasions during her arrest, each time for barely a few months. OPS remained loyal to Jayalalithaa till her very end.

Now, Atishi is one of Kejriwal's most trusted leaders in AAP.

In 2015, she made a public statement supporting Kejriwal in his conflict with Yogendra Yadav and Prashant Bhushan. She has been instrumental in forming the education policy that AAP has been showcasing as a key part of its governance model.

(Atishi and Saurabh Bhardwaj are likely to become ministers in the Delhi cabinet, following the resignations of Manish Sisodia and Satyendar Jain)

(PTI)

Sources say that by making an Atishi CM, Kejriwal wants to send the message that AAP is a party that promotes "educated and high performing leaders".

At a time when many in Delhi are feeling that that governance is taking a backseat due to the AAP-Centre tussle, Kejriwal is hoping to make a statement that governance is their top priority.

The Challenge for CM Atishi

Atishi is in an interesting position as she would be presiding over a cabinet in which every minister is older to her in age (Food and Civil Supplies Minister Imran Hussain was born in the same year as Atishi but is a month older).

For a non-dynastic politician this is a significant position to be.

But everyone in AAP knows that she enjoys Kejriwal's solid backing and there are unlikely to be murmurs of discontent from either the Cabinet or the Delhi unit for the party.

The bigger challenge for Atishi would be handling the L-G and the bureaucrats.

It is clear that the Centre isn't going to give AAP any space to maneuver. After having swept Delhi 7-0 in the Lok Sabha elections for the third time in a row, the BJP fancies its chances of finally ending its nearly 26-year-long exile from the Delhi government.

The L-G's position on the AAP government is a matter of public knowledge. In a recent article in The Indian Express, L-G VK Saxena wrote, "The elected government is hostile towards every other administrative agency...Citizens are held hostage. It is high time for introspection and course correction".

What's Arvind Kejriwal's Strategy?

Needless to say, with Kejriwal out on bail and no longer in the CM's chair, his entire priority would be to hit the ground in Delhi and boost AAP's prospects ahead of the 2025 Assembly elections.

No doubt, there is some amount of fatigue among the voters and AAP is no longer the 'challenger' it was in 2015. It is party that has held the reins of the Delhi government since 2015 and the MCD since 2023. It will, therefore, have to answer questions on the governance front.

Sources close to Kejriwal say that he actually feels "liberated" at having given up the Delhi CM's chair, especially with the L-G breathing down his neck and the court laying difficult bail conditions that would have made it difficult for him to work.

The AAP convenor's top priority now is to make the party ready for the electoral battle in Delhi and also boost the AAP nationally.

The party finds that the national context has now changed significantly, with the Congress having much better than expected in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and now on the cusp of a likely victory in Haryana.

AAP's success in Assembly elections in Delhi has greatly depended on winning over a sizable chunk of voters who choose the BJP in Lok Sabha elections and almost the entire set who choose the Congress in Delhi in the Lok Sabha elections.

An aggressive BJP and a resurgent Congress is bad news for AAP and the only person who can win back nationally BJP and Congress leaning voters in Delhi, it is Kejriwal.

Can Kejriwal use his Vanvaas from the Delhi government to strengthen AAP? And can Atishi navigate her way through the Centre's Chakravyuh in the Delhi secretariat?

This is the space to watch over the next four to five months.