Assam Politics Heats Up: This Election Is Going to Be Cut-throat

Assam Assembly Poll 2016, here’s everything you need to know.

The Sonowal versus Gogoi battle in Assam is a do-or-die for the BJP & the Congress. (Photo: The Quint)

Buoyed by the success of Mission 272+ in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP was quick to launch Mission 84+ for the 2016 Assam Assembly elections. In 2014, the party won seven seats out of the 14 in Assam, its best ever performance in the northeastern state. So the stakes are high in 2016 and of the five states going to the polls, Assam is the BJP’s only bet and the Congress’s do-or-die.

After back-to-back humiliating defeats in Delhi & Bihar, the not-so-upbeat-anymore BJP announced Union Minister Sarbananda Sonowal as the chief ministerial candidate and entered into an alliance with the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) a fortnight ago. The BJP-AGP alliance has been bogged down with internal rifts and revolts. Some disgruntled leaders have even joined forces with the Congress.

Meanwhile, with the blessings of Rahul Gandhi, Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi is leading the Congress in its run for the fourth term and is going in alone.

Opinion Polls Predict Change in Guard

(Infographic: Rahul Gupta/The Quint)

The C-voter opinion poll (conducted before the BJP-AGP alliance was stitched up) suggests that power will change hands. The poll predicts a 4% fall in the vote share of the Congress. The polls suggests that from 68 seats, the Congress will be down to 34 in the 126-member Assembly.

Essentially, pollsters believe that if the AGP does well without splitting the anti-Congress vote, then there could be a BJP-led government in the state. However, the BJP with its alliances is predicted to win 57 seats, still short of the half-way mark.

But Assam is Anybody’s Game

In August 2015, Himanta Biswa Sarma, a Congress minister, crossed over to the BJP with nine sitting MLAs. (Photo: Himanta Biswa’s Facebook page)

Though the opinion polls suggest that the BJP is in advantage, it is still anybody’s game. In August 2015, Himanta Biswa Sarma, an influential minister in the Congress government, led a rebellion and crossed over to the BJP with nine sitting MLAs. The BJP had struck gold. Himanta was said to be the man behind the Congress’s astounding victory in the last election when it won 79 of the 126 seats.

While the attempt to topple the Congress government didn’t succeed, political pundits started to write the grand old party’s obituary. But now the same pundits say a lot of water has flown down the Brahmaputra since and Assam 2016 could be anybody’s game.

Alliances and Possibilities

BJP’s pact with AGP has caused a lot of heartburn on both sides. (Photo: Assam BJP Facebook page)

The BJP, in its bid to wrest power, has formed a pre-poll alliance with the AGP and the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF). Even though it was reported in mid-February that owing to the stiff resistance among the party cadre, the AGP was unlikely to go ahead with the alliance, a vertically-divided AGP went ahead with the tie-up anyway. What followed was the ransacking of party offices, lock-downs, burning of effigies and an alliance bogged down by internal differences.

Congress to go it alone. (Photo Courtesy: Gaurav Gogoi’s Facebook page)

The Congress has decided to fight it alone, though with minor parties. The All Bodo Student’s Union (ABSU) and the United People’s Party (UPP) have allied with it.

In a state where there are as many as 40 Muslim majority constituencies, Badruddin Ajmal’s AIUDF could emerge as a key player and if not king, the party could very well emerge the king-maker.

The Season of Separation?

BJP announced its list of 88 candidates and sources say the AGP has managed to strike a bargain on 25-28 seats. A section of disgruntled AGP leaders have split from the party and two MLAs have joined the Congress. Two BJP leaders have also joined the Congress. In addition, two expelled AIUDF MLAs have joined forces with the Congress.

Sources also suggest that the BJP-AGP alliance, which was forged by Biswa Sarma, did not have the blessings of Sonowal because the AGP is influential in north Assam which is also Sonowal’s stronghold. While the BJP-AGP alliance has caused heartburn, sources say Sonowal and Biswa Sarma don’t get along, one is the face and the other, the engineer of the campaign.

So while the Congress is battling a 15-year anti-incumbency, the BJP’s pre-poll alliance is bogged down by internal pressure. The Assam election is going down to the wire!