Akhilesh, Ram Gopal Out: 3 Likely Political Scenarios Emerge in UP

The old guard versus the new guard tussle is out in the open in the Samajwadi Party – yet again. (Photo: Hardeep Singh/The Quint)

The tension in Uttar Pradesh’s Samajwadi Party has been simmering for the last few months, and it was always likely that it will to come to a head.

Samajwadi Party supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav on Friday expelled his son and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav from the party for six years. The reason cited by him was indiscipline. Akhilesh’s staunch supporter and party General Secretary Ram Gopal Yadav wasn’t spared either.

Ram Gopal has harmed the party’s interests through his activities, and has been deliberately creating problems. No one has the right to call national executive meeting.

Mulayam Singh Yadav

Mulayam was reacting to the news of Ram Gopal's decision to call a national convention of the party on 1 January following a rift over the list of candidates to fight Assembly polls. He also accused Ram Gopal of damaging future prospects of his son Akhilesh.

So, what next for Uttar Pradesh – and Akhilesh Yadav? Will he remain the state Chief Minister? Although Mulayam can suspend Akhilesh from the party, he cannot dethrone him from the chief ministership.

Three scenarios may play out in the days to come.

Prove Majority on the Floor of the House

If Akhilesh does not step down as the Chief Minister, a floor test is imminent. Akhilesh will have to prove his majority on the floor of the House with support from at least 202 MLAs in the state Assembly. Only then can he retain his chair.

The Samajwadi Party currently has 229 out of 403 MLAs. Akhilesh is likely to get support from the Congress and the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) during the floor test. And he may still continue as state chief minister if he manages to garner support from other parties, including the RLD, the Congress or even the Bahujan Samajwadi Party.

Also Read: Samajwadi Party’s Self-Destruction Timeline: All You Need to Know

President’s Rule?

There’s a possibility of President’s rule in Uttar Pradesh if the Samajwadi Party splits. If it does, Akhilesh will be asked by Governor Ram Naik to prove majority on the floor of the house. If he fails, Naik may recommend President’s Rule.

Also Read: The Yadav Feud: Who Stands to Gain in UP Politics If SP Splits?

New CM Steps in

Samajwadi Party MLAs can elect another leader as the legislature party leader with Akhilesh no longer remaining as the Chief Minister. As Akhilesh enjoys support of a large number of MLAs, the rule of disqualification won’t be applicable.