ABP-CSDS Poll: Akhilesh Will Remain UP CM, SP Will Beat BJP & BSP

The BJP will bag a majority in Uttar Pradesh only if the SP splits, the survey predicts.

The Bharatiya Janata Party will bag a majority in Uttar Pradesh only if the Samajwadi Party splits. (Photo: Rythum Seth/The Quint)

The Samajwadi Party (SP) is expected to win 141 to 151 seats in the upcoming Uttar Pradesh elections, according to the latest ABP News-Lokniti CSDS Opinion Poll. This figure takes the SP’s vote share to 30 percent of the total.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) follows close behind, with the poll predicting the party’s win in 124 to 134 seats (27 percent).

(Photo: Akriti Paracer/The Quint)

Who Will Be UP’s Next Chief Minister?

Current Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav is projected to retain his seat, according to 28 percent of the voters.

(Photo: Akriti Paracer/The Quint)

Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) chief Mayawati comes in at a close second with 21 percent of the votes.

Only 3 percent of the voters picked Akhilesh Yadav’s father, Mulayam Singh Yadav, for the CM’s post.

Yadav vs Modi

Voters felt that Akhilesh's performance as UP CM was better than that of Narendra Modi's performance as the prime minister, with 34 percent picking the former.

(Photo: Akriti Paracer/The Quint)

And the Most Popular Yadav is...

Amid the high drama within the Yadav clan, a whopping 86 percent of the poll respondents picked Akhilesh as their choice for UP CM. Father Mulayam Singh and uncle Ram Gopal only found favour with 6 percent and 2 percent of the voters, respectively.

(Photo: Akriti Paracer/The Quint)

Who Will Muslim Voters Pick?

According to the survey, the SP will bag about 54 percent of Muslim voters. Around 14 percent Muslim votes will go to the BSP, while the BJP and Congress lag behind with 9 percent and 7 percent, respectively.

Interestingly, while support for the SP among Muslim voters appears to have fallen by 8 percentage points from August, the BJP appears to have made inroads with the community in the same time period.

(Photo: Akriti Paracer/The Quint)

Can the BJP Win?

The survey revealed that if the SP splits, the BJP will stand to gain with 27 percent vote share, to emerge the single largest party with 158 to 168 seats.

A split in the SP does not seem to affect the BSP, which is projected to bag 22 percent vote share in either scenario.

(Photo: Akriti Paracer/The Quint)

Caste-based Votes

While the BJP is expected to bag 55 percent of the upper caste votes, the SP is expected to win 75 percent of the Yadav vote. The BSP is projected to win 74 percent votes from the Jatavs and 56 percent votes from the Dalit community.

(Photo: Akriti Paracer/The Quint)

Region-Wise Vote Base

The SP took a lead over the BJP in Poorvanchal or Eastern UP, with a projected vote share of 35 percent, up from 29 percent in August.

(Photo: Akriti Paracer/The Quint)

On the other hand, the BJP appears to be faring much better in the Western parts of UP with 37 percent votes, up seven points from August. The BSP is the front-runner in Awadh, with a 33 percent vote share.

Source: ABP News