AIADMK Post Jaya May Implode, With Political Advantage to BJP

AIADMK faces an existential crisis with Jaya’s passing, writes political analyst Sandeep Shastri.

AIADMK faces an existential crisis as Jaya passes away. (Photo: Rhythum Seth/ The Quint)

Given the demise of Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Jayalalithaa, speculating about the impact on the state’s politics has been the focus of many an animated discussion. Ever since the death of her political mentor MGR, Jayalalithaa had emerged as the unquestioned leader of the AIADMK and led the party with a firm grip, serving as the Chief Minister of the state for 14 years, in five different stretches over the last quarter of a century.

Like her guide MGR, AIADMK represented Jayalalithaa, and Amma symbolised the AIADMK. Her death raises a range of questions for the future of her party and its role in Tamil Nadu’s politics.

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Succession Battle After MGR

One is reminded of 24 December 1987, when Jayalalithaa’s political mentor, MGR, died, and a power struggle had ensued within the party. During MGR’s lifetime, it was clear that Jayalalithaa was groomed by him as the political heir. Jayalalithaa represented the party at the national level and during MGR’s long phase of ill-health, the cadres were readied for her smooth succession.

Things took a sudden turn soon after MGR’s death, when the immediate family of MGR and his political associates who were against Jayalalithaa, attempted to sideline her right from the time of the funeral rituals, eventually choosing MGR’s wife, Janaki as the leader of the party and the Chief Minister to succeed MGR. The party split with Janaki leading one faction, and Jayalalithaa leading another. Janaki was unable to either keep the party together or remain in power and faded away from politics, leaving the two factions in the party to unite under Jayalalithaa.

Jayalalithaa led the AIADMK to power in Tamil Nadu in 1991. Her electoral campaign rhetoric was very much in the mould of her mentor MGR. She also led the party in exactly the same manner as MGR did, assuming full control and being the central focus of all the decision-making.

Her first term as Chief Minister was mired in several controversies involving corruption, nepotism and vulgar display of wealth, especially at her foster son’s wedding. Unlike her mentor who remained undefeated and uninterrupted in power, Jayalalithaa tasted defeat in 1996 when the DMK-led alliance emerged victorious and Jayalalithaa herself was defeated in her constituency.

Anxious supporters of Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa gather outside Apollo Hospital on 5 December, 2016. (Photo: IANS)

Political Highs and Lows

She used her time while in the Opposition to build her party, fortify her control over the organisation, thus commanding unquestioned loyalty from party workers. There were rumours of a small ‘ginger group’ that influenced her decision-making and gradually, the party workers and leaders found it difficult to have access to the leadership.

Her party returned to power in 2001 but she was unable to remain for long as Chief Minister in view of the court strictures and her inability to contest elections. She got Pannerselvam elected as the Chief Minister and he continued until such time as the legal hurdles were cleared and she was able to once again take over as the Chief Minster. The party lost the 2006 elections under her leadership and she remained in the opposition for the next five years.

Also Read: What Made Amma Who She Is? A Look at 10 Defining Moments

Bargaining with the Centre

One lesson she had imbibed from her mentor was to try and maintain good relations with the party in power at the Centre. While MGR supported whoever was in power at the Centre, the political context when Jayalalithaa assumed power was very different. The AIADMK and DMK supported rival alliances at the centre and alternated in governments. The AIADMK did have a brief alliance with the BJP-led NDA, which was called off abruptly in 1999, leading to the collapse of the NDA government. Her assertiveness and bargaining strategy in national politics was often aimed at garnering resources for the populist programmes of the state government but also to shield herself from the range of corruption and nepotism-related cases that had been filed against her.

Jayalalithaa led the AIADMK to victory in the state in 2011, but soon had to relinquish the Chief Ministership on account of Court strictures. When the restrictions were lifted, she once again took over as Chief Minister and led the party to what many thought was a surprise victory in the 2016 Assembly elections.

Also Read: In Jayalalithaa’s TN, It Is Sasikala’s Family That Runs the State

Centralisation of Power

As a leader, Jayalalithaa brooked no dissent. The ministers in her government had very limited autonomy, with decision-making being controlled by a small core group of individuals who enjoyed the leader’s confidence. She astutely used the bureaucracy to manage the administration and all senior officers reported directly to the ‘core group of trusted lieutenants’ who had her ear. It is this facet that was closely observed ever since she was admitted to hospital. The ‘core group’ appeared to exercise power on her behalf and possibly prepare the ground for a post-Jayalalithaa AIADMK.

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Union Minister M Venkaiah Naidu arrives at Apollo Hospital where Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa is admitted in Chennai on 5 December 2016. (Photo: IANS)

Will the Party Implode?

A post-Jayalalithaa AIADMK is actually very difficult to imagine, as there is no second line of leadership. The leadership began and ended with her. The machinations to manoeuvre for power were evident during the last two weeks of her hospitalisation between the close associates – who had little democratic legitimacy – and her senior ministers. How this power struggle unfolds now will be interesting to watch. Given the centrality of Jayalalithaa to the party, there would be a big question mark over the AIADMK remaining united, and many believe it would necessarily implode.

The beneficiaries would clearly be the smaller regional parties and the BJP. It would be difficult to imagine the AIADMK cadres moving towards the DMK given their long-standing rivalry, which pans down to the grass-root levels.

The political developments of the last few years have seen the AIADMK and BJP coming together on a range of issues. It may to their mutual advantage try to come together and work with each other. Beyond doubt, Tamil Nadu politics will witness many a sudden twist and unexpected turn in the weeks and months to come.

(The writer is Pro Vice-Chancellor of Jain University and a keen student of politics and society and a resident of Bengaluru for four decades. He can be reached @SandeepShastri2. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)

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