In Stats: Why India Are Overpowering Favourites For Aus Series

Australia last won a Test match in India in 2008.

The number one ranked Test team in the world, Virat Kohli’s India go in as favourites against Australia. (Photo: AP/TheQuint.LijuJoseph)

Starting Thursday, India and Australia will compete for the Border-Gavaskar Trophy, with the first of the four Tests slotted at the MCA Stadium in Pune.

Trivia

The MCA Stadium will host its first Test match on Thursday, making it the 25th Test venue in India.

For a new venue, the MCA has managed to snap up a ‘dream debut’ into the Test-hosting arena with India and Australia being the two top ranked Test nations in the world. Not just that, both sides feature a whole host of players who occupy top slots in the ICC Player rankings.

The Australian captain Steve Smith is the top-ranked batsman in the world, while his Indian counterpart Virat Kohli is ranked second. On the bowling front, the Indian spin duo of Ravichandran Ashwin and Ravindra Jadeja occupy the top two slots, while the Australian pacer Josh Hazlewood is ranked third.

(Photo: The Quint/Liju Joseph)

India’s Stellar Track Record

Australia haven’t had it easy on their recent tours of India, and their ride isn’t going to be any easy, given the Indian team is playing some exceptional cricket.

Here are a few facts worth reminding:

1. India are unbeaten in their last 19 Test matches – the last time India lost a Test was in August 2015.
2. Team India is also undefeated in their last 20 Test matches at home – a record-equalling stretch.
3. In the current home season, India have won eight of the nine Test matches - having got the better of New Zealand, England and Bangladesh.

(Photo: The Quint/Liju Joseph)

While India have been invincible at home, Australia haven’t been able to win a Test match on their last three visits to India; they were whitewashed on their last two tours of the country, and lost the 4-match series 0-2 in 2008.

(Photo: The Quint/Liju Joseph)

Australia’s Road to India

Australia have had mixed returns of late. They were awful on the tour of Sri Lanka in July-August 2016, following which they lost to South Africa 1-2 at home. Most recently, Australia whitewashed Pakistan 3-0 and therefore find themselves parked at second in the ICC Test rankings.

The series in India presents Australia the opportunity to displace India from the perch of the rankings; but for that to happen they will have to beat the home team by a highly improbable margin of either 3-0 or 4-0.

It is stating the obvious, but still worth mentioning; India start overwhelming favourites. For several reasons too; they have the knowledge of the conditions, they have players who are performing exceptionally, there is plenty of variety in the squad, they have a captain who believes in leading from the front and a captain who only knows to play cricket one way – with the intention of wanting to win. This Indian team is always up for a contest and never gives up!

(Photo: The Quint/Liju Joseph)

On paper, Australia are a formidable unit and should not be discounted. In Steve Smith, they have a captain who is counted among the best batsmen of this generation, in David Warner, they have possibly the most-feared opening batsman of modern day cricket, and in Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood they have two fast bowlers who can test the best batsmen in business.

(Photo: The Quint/Liju Joseph)

There are two areas the Australians are lacking; they have an inexperienced squad – particularly with very little experience of playing in Indian conditions, and don’t have established spinners.

Australia’s squad has a total of 335 Test caps, and only six of their players have previously played Test matches in India. Australia’s spin bowling attack comprises Nathan Lyon, Ashton Agar and Steven O’Keefe – with Lyon contributing to the extent of 63 of the 69 caps between them.

One other thing that stands out is that there are 8 left-handers in Australia’s 16-member squad. This is extremely interesting, given both Ashwin and Jadeja have been exceptional against left-handers in this home season. Ashwin’s average against left-hand batsmen this home season stands at 21.06 (as against 28.16 against RHBs), while Jadeja’s average against left-handers reads 17.50 (in comparison to 31.87 against RHBs).

Virat Kohli during India’s practice session in Pune. (Photo: IANS)

Pitch Prediction

On evidence of pictures emerging from the ground on the eve of the match, the pitch at the MCA Stadium appeared to be dry and abrasive.

Given there is very little history to lean upon as to how the pitch will behave, it will be interesting to see how the teams pick their XIs. Usually, Pune has been a high-scoring venue; so it remains to be seen if the teams go in with the comfort of an additional batsman or lean towards a spin-bowling all-rounder.

Likely XIs:

India: Murali Vijay, KL Rahul, Cheteshwar Pujara, Virat Kohli, Ajinkya Rahane, Ravichandran Ashwin, Wriddhiman Saha, Ravindra Jadeja, Jayant Yadav, Umesh Yadav, Ishant Sharma.

Australia: David Warner, Matt Renshaw, Usman Khawaja, Steven Smith, Shaun Marsh, Mitchell Marsh, Matthew Wade, Steve O’Keefe, Nathan Lyon, Josh Hazlewood, Mitchell Starc.