Graphs: How & Why Is Delhi Witnessing India’s Highest COVID Spike

Delhi has the highest number of COVID-19 cases and the highest daily spike in the country.

The national capital is facing sharp in increase in COVID-19 cases. 

(Photo: The Quint) 

Hospitals in Delhi have been witnessing a barrage of COVID-19 cases after the number of active cases in Delhi shot up from 21,490 on 13 October to 44,456 on 14 November.

Earlier this month, the Delhi government said that the national capital was witnessing a third wave. Alarmed by the rapid rise in coronavirus cases in Delhi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah chaired a high-level meeting on Sunday evening, 15 November.

At present, Delhi has the highest number of COVID-19 cases in the country, and since 19 October, it has been recording the highest daily spike in the country.

The Quint analysed the data on COVID-19 cases reported in the capital till 13 November, to understand how it is struggling to fight the virus and how it compares to other cities.

Daily Increase in Cases

A look at the graph on the daily increase in COVID-19 cases reported in Delhi will show that the city is facing a third wave of the infection. Compared to the last two waves, Delhi saw nearly twice the number of cases in the third wave.

To give an example of the spike, in the first 15 days of October, the average number of cases reported daily in Delhi was 2,754. Between 15 and 31 October, this average shot up to 4,104. In the first 12 days of November, this average was 6,693.

How Delhi Compares to Other Cities

The graphs below show a comparison of Delhi with other major metros in the country. During mid-October, Delhi surpassed Bengaluru, which was recording the highest number of daily cases that month. While Bengaluru showed a decline in cases, Delhi witnessed a sharp increase.

Delhi now has the highest number of reported cases in India, as shown in the graph below.

Why Is Delhi Witnessing the Spike?

Experts and the Health Ministry have pointed out that the spike could be owing to the festive season, opening of essential services and allowing movement of people. Delhi Health Minister Satyendar Jain in the past partly attributed this rise in case positivity rate to contact tracing and targeted testing of the population. He also attributed the rise to increase in more RT PCR tests being deployed compared to rapid antigen tests, that throw out more false negatives.

Mortality Rate and Recoveries

Even though Delhi has reported an increase in cases reported daily, the mortality rate in the capital city is dropping as shown in the graph below. However, the number of recoveries are yet to surpass the number of infections in Delhi. Doctors and experts have attributed the low mortality rate to learnings from early days and better preparation.

How Are Delhi’s NCR Neighbours Doing?

Here is how other cities in the National Capital Region (NCR) are doing on the COVID front. Since the number of cases in Delhi is way higher than these cities, they can’t be compared to Delhi. Also, Delhi sees a large influx of patients from neighbouring states to the city's hospitals. Here is a comparison of how these cities are doing.