Why BJP Rewarding Congress Defector in Gujarat Could Backfire

What does Kunvarji Bavaliya bring to the table for the BJP in the 2019 elections?

(Right) Kunvarji Bavaliya hands his resignation as Congress MLA of Jasdan Constituency to Gujarat Assembly Speaker Rajendra Trivedi (left).

(Photo Courtesy: BJP Media Centre)

A Cabinet berth and three portfolios – That’s how the BJP welcomed five-time Congress MLA from Jasdan, Kunvarji Bavaliya into its Gujarat government. The party’s generosity to the Koli strong-man from Bavaliya has ruffled more than a few feathers in the party and sparked a flurry of WhatsApp memes.

Bavaliya’s overnight defection did not follow any public declaration of dissatisfaction with the Congress. But sources told The Quint that his move was the result of a two-month long discussion.

Political analyst and Chairman of the Gujarat Sahitya Akademi, Vishnu Pandya says Bavaliya was motivated by his own community, the Kolis, to make the shift.

“He’s been contemplating shifting to the BJP for a while now. He met Chief Minister Vijay Rupani several times and then even met the BJP President, Amit Shah. Finally, it was decided that the announcement would be made after Rupani returns from Israel, where he surveyed desalination plants.”

How Does BJP Benefit from Bavaliya?

1. Lok Sabha Elections
The shift was prompted by the BJP’s dismal performance in Saurashtra during the December 2017 Assembly election. Of the 56 Assembly seats in the region, the BJP could win only 23, down by 16 seats from the 2012 election.

Saurashtra accounts for seven of the 26 Lok Sabha seats in Gujarat. Retaining all 26 of them, is of prime concern for the BJP, as it will be perceived to be a direct referendum on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s performance. Kunvarji Bavaliya, who’s also the president of the Akhil Bharatiya Koli Samaj, is an influential leader who could be crucial in ensuring that the seven Saurashtra Lok Sabha seats remain with the BJP in 2019.

Gujarat Minister of State for Fisheries, Purushottam Solanki(Photo: ANI)

2. Restrict Solanki’s Clout
Speaking to The Quint, political and economic analyst, Hemant Kumar Shah says the purpose of bringing Bavaliya to BJP is to primarily restrict rebel BJP Minister of State for Fisheries, Purshottam Solanki’s clout. Also a prominent Koli leader from the Saurashtra region, Solanki has been held guilty by a trial court in the Rs 400 crore fisheries scam in 2012, wherein fishing contracts for areas around 58 dams were awarded at will, without following any tender-auction process.

After Chief Minister Vijay Rupani formed the government in Gujarat with 99 MLAs late last year, Solanki was again handed the Minister of State for Fisheries portfolio.

But he did not take it lying down. He rallied his brother, former BJP MLA Hira Solanki and other Koli leaders to “petition” for the BJP leadership on his behalf, to clinch “more portfolios”. After the not-so-enthusiastic election win (less than 100 seats, down by 16 seats from 2012 ), BJP swiftly put an end to his rebellion by sending in senior Minister Bhupendrasinh Chudasma to pacify him.

“Besides,” says Hemant Kumar Shah, “95% of the Koli-Patel population resides in Saurashtra, so the BJP’s logic is that having Bavaliya, a Koli-strongman himself, will simply add to their chances of winning in 2019.”

Disgruntled BJP MLAs

But Bhavnagar (Rural) MLA Purshottam Solanki is not too enthused with the idea of sharing his Koli credentials with a Congress defector. A Cabinet minister in the 2012-2017 Cabinet, he’s had to settle for a Minister of State rank this time.

The fact that Kunvarji Bavaliya has been promoted straight from the Congress to three Cabinet berths in a BJP government has also led to some heartburn among other senior BJP MLAs, who despite being consistent election winners and senior leaders in the party, were not even considered for a Cabinet position. Among them are seven-time Manjalpur MLA Yogesh Patel and six-time Vahgodia MLA Madhu Srivastav.

Current BJP State President Jitu Vaghani, who’s been waiting on an invite to join the government, was made to welcome Kunvarji Bavaliya into the saffron fold.

According to Hemant Kumar Shah, the BJP has made an error in welcoming Bavaliya.

There are so many leaders in the BJP who were actively lobbying for a cabinet position. It will now be interesting to see who the Congress fields against Bavaliya as and when the Jasdan bypoll is announced. If he loses, it will be the end of his political career. As for the disgruntled lot within the BJP, they would rather watch from the sidelines, instead of actively contributing to the party’s 2019 general election campaign.

Hemant Kumar Shah, Political Analyst 

But Why Did Bavaliya Ditch the Congress for BJP?

“I was not getting a chance to work the way I wanted to while being in the Congress due to constant infighting in the party,” said Kunvarji Bavaliya on his reasons for leaving the party he served for more than 25 years.

“This (BJP) government is moving ahead with a mission, and I will be able to succeed in fulfilling expectations of the people, the rural populace, poor and farmers... The way Rahulji is playing casteist politics, I realised that I will not be able to succeed in working in the Congress any more... Even in the past, the then chief minister and now prime minister, Narendrabhai was very closely associated with me. He used to tell me that we need people like you. I have been taking note of the way our prime minister has been working. I have supported the direction he has given to the country’s economy.”

Kunvarji Bavaliya

The Madhya Pradesh Election Theory

But that hasn’t helped abate the slew of WhatsApp memes that compared how the BJP, like the rumoured “child abductors”, had “lifted” Bavaliya from the Congress.

The 63-year-old leader’s daughter, Bhavana, responded to the online/WhatsApp commentary to say that her father, despite his age and political stature, had got no respect from the Congress in his decades-long association with the party.

Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan(Photo: PTI)

More interestingly, she said that her father had joined the saffron party on the insistence of Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, who informed the BJP leadership that he would lose the upcoming bypolls if Kunvarji Bavaliya was not inducted into the party.

But political analysts rubbish the theory that Kunvarji Bavaliya could lead to any gain for the BJP in Madhya Pradesh.

“With tribal voters traditionally siding with the Congress party, the BJP has its hands full, but Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan is unlikely to influence the party leadership to induct and promote a five-time Congress MLA to influence what is only a very small community in Madhya Pradesh,” an MP and senior functionary of the Madhya Pradesh BJP told The Quint.

The last attempt by the Shivraj Singh Chouhan government to woo the Kolis, was made in November last year, when President Ramnath Kovind unveiled the statue of Jhalkari Bai, who was an aide of Rani Lakshmi Bai at the Guru Tegh Bahadur Complex in Bhopal. Meanwhile, the Congress in the last 14 years, has never fielded the Koli leader.

“The theory that Kunvarji Bavaliya was inducted into the BJP because of the upcoming Madhya Pradesh election, is being blown out of proportion,” says the BJP MP who requested anonymity.