UP Rajya Sabha Elections: Who Will Cross Over, Who Will Walk Over?

The UP Rajya Sabha polls will be a face off between the BJP on one side and the SP, BSP and Congress on the other.

Mayawati, Yogi Adityanath and Akhilesh Yadav.

(Photo altered by The Quint)

With the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on one side and the Samajwadi Party (SP), the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Congress on the other, Uttar Pradesh is all set to decide on 10 of 31 Rajya Sabha seats on Friday, 23 March.

To ensure a smooth victory, each candidate needs 37 first preference votes.

Here is what the numbers suggest:

• The BJP and its allies have 324 seats in the state Assembly, after the death of its Noorpur MLA. Thus, arithmetically, the BJP can easily win eight of the 10 seats.
• The SP has 47 MLAs, out of which, it has decided to divert 10 surplus votes to the BSP. Nitin Agarwal, son of Naresh Agarwal, however, is expected to vote for the BJP.
• With 19 MLAs, the BSP is short of 18 first preference votes. It is banking on 10 surplus votes promised by the SP, besides seven votes from Congress and one from Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) to reach the magic figure of 37.

Samajwadi Party Meet: Absentees or Deserters?

Ahead of the polls, SP chief Akhilesh Yadav on Wednesday, 21 March, held a crucial meeting with party MLAs and discussed its strategy.

After its victory in the Phulpur and Gorakhpur bypolls, SP has decided to divert 10 of its surplus votes in the Assembly to BSP candidate Bhimrao Ambedkar.

However, seven MLAs were missing from Wednesday’s meet. Apart from Nitin Agrawal, another SP MLA who skipped the meeting is Shivpal Yadav who was reportedly in Etawah.

Senior party leader Azam Khan, his son Abdullah Azam, Hariom (lodged in jail) were also absent from the meeting. Although party leaders asserted that all SP MLAs are firmly within the party fold and expressed confidence that their candidate would emerge victorious in the Rajya Sabha polls.

According to News18, an independent MLA from Kundla, Raghuraj Pratap Singh, or Raja Bhaiyya as he is more popularly known, was also present at the dinner.

The presence of Singh as a replacement of Nitin Agarwal’s lost vote rekindles hope for the BSP.

BJP Sure of Victory, but Still up for Mischief?

Yogi Adityanatha at a party meet on 21 March.(Photo Courtesy: ANI)

The BJP and its allies have 324 seats in the Assembly, which ensures a cakewalk victory for eight of the 10 seats.

BJP’s ally – the Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party (SBSP) – which has four MLAs in the 403-member UP Assembly, holds key to the success of its ninth nominee.

The SBSP sent shockwaves in the ruling dispensation when the party made public its displeasure with the BJP by skipping the celebrations held on the completion of one year of the Yogi Adityanath government.

Giving the saffron party anxious moments, the SBSP also threatened that its MLAs would boycott the Rajya Sabha elections in case the "big brother" does not redress the party's problems.

The BJP, however, successfully mollified the SBSP whose four votes could be crucial.

Thus, the BJP cannot only easily win eight of the 10 seats, but will also be left with 28 surplus votes, with the SBSP now deciding to go with the BJP.

The BJP has fielded Anil Kumar Agarwal, a businessman, as its extra candidate, and forced a contest.

As he held a meeting with SP MLAs, Akhilesh Yadav attacked the BJP, claiming it would not have fielded nine candidates if it "cared for democratic values".

"If the BJP had any morality and cared for democratic values, it would not have fielded the ninth candidate. It seems the BJP does not mind malpractices and is functioning in an autocratic manner," Akhilesh said addressing party leaders in Lucknow.

The BSP in Soup?

With 19 MLAs, the BSP is short of 18 first preference votes, and with Nitin Agarwal voting for the BJP, the task will become difficult for Mayawati’s candidate Bhimrao Ambedkar.

Riding on her new bonhomie with the SP, Mayawati is banking on the 10 surplus votes of Akhilesh's party, besides seven votes of the Congress and one of the RLD to reach the magic figure of 37.

However, with the Nitin Agarwal factor and the BJP fielding a ninth candidate, the BSP is in choppy waters.

However, the presence of independent MLA from Kundla, Raghuraj Pratap Singh, at the SP dinner on Wednesday night might be a saviour for Mayawati. According to News18, he spent most of the evening speaking to SP candidate Jaya Bachchan.

SP leaders expressed confidence they would emerge victorious.

"We know how to contest polls. Our candidate is winning and we are also going to ensure victory of the other (BSP) candidate," senior SP leader and MLA Parasnath Yadav told reporters.

Congress to Come to BSP’s Rescue

At least four Congress leaders will remain present in the state capital to ensure polling in favour of BSP nominee Bhimrao Ambedkar.

Senior leaders Pramod Tewari, PL Punia, Sanjay Singh and Raj Babbar will stay put in Lucknow to assist Congress Legislature Party leader Ajay Kumar Lallu for the Rajya Sabha polling, Tewari said.

The Congress, with seven MLAs, has already decided to back the BSP candidate, paving way for the coming together of anti-BJP parties.

"We have decided to join hands with the secular forces against oppressive and communal politics and have decided to vote for the BSP candidate," Lallu stated.

Pitted against an aggressive BJP out to foil the unity bid of the SP, the BSP and the Congress, especially after electoral reverses in the just-concluded Lok Sabha bypolls in Gorakhpur and Phulpur, the opposition parties are making all out efforts to ensure that all their MLAs vote in favour of the two candidates fielded by the SP and the BSP.

(With inputs from PTI and News18)