ABP-CVoter Opinion Poll: DMK to Win With 162 Seats, AIADMK-BJP 64

This election in Tamil Nadu is one-of-a-kind with no veteran leaders, new players and good old parties rebranded. 

(Photo: Edited by Erum Gour/ The Quint)

The ABP CVoter Opinion Poll for the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections has predicted that the opposition party, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) will come to power, defeating the All India Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK).

The anti-incumbency cycle of the past two elections is culminating into an advantage for the DMK as per the poll.

This comes at a day when several members of the Rajini Makkal Mandram (RMM) and Kamal Haasan’s Makkal Needhi Maiam (MNM) joined DMK.

The Tamil Nadu state Assembly elections are scheduled to be held in April-May 2021 and this is the first election without veteran leaders, Jayalalithaa and Karunanidhi.

Sharp Fall for AIADMK

(Source: ABP CVoter Opinion Poll)

As per the respondents of the survey, the vote share of the UPA (DMK + Congress + Others) will increase by 1.7 per cent. The UPA, which received 39.4 per cent vote share in 2016, is expected to get 41.1 per cent vote share this time.

However, the NDA (AIADMK + BJP + Others) camp could face a setback of a 15 percentage point loss in the vote share. The NDA got 43.7 per cent vote share in 2016 but the projection suggests the alliance will get only 28.7 per cent vote share in 2021.

This election is crucial for the BJP as they want to make inroads into the vote banks of a state, dominated by only two Dravidian parties for decades now.

The UPA is expected to win 162 seats in the 234-member Tamil Nadu Assembly. The UPA had won 98 seats in 2016.

The NDA, which won 136 seats last time, is set to suffer a loss of 64 seats and win in only 98 constituencies.

Sasikala’s AMMK To Damage AIADMK?

The survey also suggests that TTV Dhinakaran and Sasikala’s Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazagam (AMMK) is expected to get a 7.8 per cent vote share, which could eat into the AIADMK vote share.

There is much anticipation riding on Sasikala Natarajan’s political moves once she is released from jail on 27 January, after serving her four-year prison term in the disproportionate assets case.

Now that Rajinikanth has called the quits on politics, BJP could consider using Sasikala as their trump card, a few analysts have opined.

On 14 January, during the 51st Anniversary of Thuglak magazine, Thuglak Editor and RSS sympathiser S Gurumurthy had said, “When a house is on fire you do not wait for water from the Ganges to put out the fire. You will even use sewer water for the purpose. Similarly, whether it is Sasikala or anyone else when you gather as an alliance or a front you can't wait for Ganga water, you have to accept all kinds of water."

That observation is significant as Gurumurthy has been one of the key links for BJP in the state and he had also strongly opposed the elevation of Sasikala as the AIADMK general secretary and then almost becoming Chief Minister before being sent to jail by the Supreme Court in 2017 after Jayalalithaa’s demise. It is also important to note that these statements were made in the presence of the BJP president J.P. Nadda and several state BJP leaders.

MNM - Not Expected to Make a Mark

Political analysts had believed actor-turned-politician Kamal Haasan’a Makkal Needhi Maiam (MNM) could make a significant dent. However, as per the opinion poll, his vote share is expected to be about 6.7 per cent, bagging only two seats.

The 2021 Assembly election is going to be the ground to find an answer to which should prevail – a genuine democracy that upholds the participation of all and respects republicanism or a fake democracy that “sacrifices people for power struggle” within a family, said Deputy Chief Minister Panneerselvam and Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami, in a statement recently.

Meanwhile, if the DMK manages a win with a huge majority, then it will go down in history as it has been years since the party has registered such a huge win.

Puducherry

As for Puducherry, the NDA alliance with AINRC, BJP and ADMK is expected to come to power.

As per the respondents of the survey, the vote share of the NDA will increase by 13.9 percentage points. The NDA, which received 30.5 per cent vote share in 2016, is expected to get 44.4 per cent vote share this time.

The SDA, which received 39.5 per cent vote share in 2016, is expected to get 42.6 per cent vote share this time.

The SDA is projected to win in 14 seats, compared to 17 seats in 2016 and the NDA in 16 seats compared to 12 seats in 2016.