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In the first phase of voting in Madhya Pradesh's civic body elections on Wednesday, 6 July, casting of votes is underway for 11 municipal corporations, including Bhopal, Indore, Gwalior, Khandwa, Burhanpur, Jabalpur, Chhindwara, Ujjain, Sagar, Singrauli, and Satna.
The elections are being held in two phases for 16 municipal corporations (tier 1 bodies), 99 nagar palika parishads (tier 2 bodies) or municipalities, and 298 nagar parishads (tier 3 bodies). The second phase of polling will be held on 13 July, and counting of the votes will be done on 17 July.
Most of the 11 municipal corporations in the first phase are witnessing a bipolar fight between the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress, except for the seats of Singrauli and Satna with the entry of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in the former and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in the latter.
So, which party has better odds? Let's take a closer look.
Political experts believe that although the Congress has fielded better candidates than the BJP, the organisational support from the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) for the latter will "give them an edge towards victory."
At the same time, not having "anything extraordinary" can have serious ramifications for the BJP.
For one, the state is witnessing monsoon, and with waterlogged localities, the voter might just get frustrated and decide to vote against the BJP, the journalist adds. "The issues of improper drainage, waterlogged roads, floods and problems might not allow the whole pro-Hindutva notions to ride through, and for once the voter might just decide to vote against the problems being faced on a daily routine," he adds.
Another senior journalist from the state, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, says both the BJP and the Congress are considering these elections as precursor to the 2023 Assembly elections. As a result, they have "put the best face and the strongest fight."
The most complex scenario for the mayoral seat is Singrauli, where the entry of AAP has spruced up the fight. It is the only civic body where Delhi Chief Minister and the party supremo Arvind Kejriwal did a roadshow on 2 July, putting his weight behind their candidate Rani Agarwal.
Agarwal had finished third with 21.59 percent votes in the 2018 Assembly polls. The BJP's Ram Lallu Vaishy secured the win with 24.63 percent of votes, and the Congress' Renu Sahu ranking second with 22.13 percent vote share.
Kejriwal, during his recent campaign for Agarwal, said that his party works not to amass wealth, but to put wealth in the common man’s pockets. He promised free electricity, water, and a better education system.
While in Satna the Congress rebel Saeed Ahmad has made the fight more interesting. Saeed is contesting the mayoral election on the ticket of Bahujan Samaj Party against Congress's current candidate Siddharth Kushwaha and BJP's Yogesh Tamrakar.
In Satna where the mayoral seat is reserved for the Other Backward Classes (OBCs), the BJP is looking to retain power. The Congress is facing serious challenge here due to the rebel candidate Saeed.
Locals say that both the BJP and the Congress paved way for discontent in Satna due to the ticket allotment and that is what the BSP has targeted as its winning medallion.
AIMIM's Asaduddin Owaisi campaigned in Madhya Pradesh before the first phase of elections and alleged that Congress and BJP had a secret "arrangement." AAP's Kejriwal also said that there is a "setting" that operates between the two parties.
What is set to be a nail-biter for both the Congress and the BJP in the backdrop of newly introduced OBC reservations in local civic bodies, the entry of both AAP and AIMIM in the elections may lead to unexpected results in certain constituencies.
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