On James Mattis’ India Agenda: F-16s, Af-Pak and South China

Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will meet her American counterpart General James Mattis on 26 September.

File photo of US Defence Secretary James Mattis.

(Photo Courtesy: Twitter/Political News‏)

Hard-selling obsolete F-16s and security challenges in Afghanistan and the South China Sea will dominate the agenda of the 26 September meeting between Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and her American counterpart General James Mattis.

The delegation-level meeting follows Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Washington in June to meet President Donald Trump.

Apart from Sitharaman, Mattis is also scheduled to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval.

Also expected soon in New Delhi is Energy Secretary Rick Perry and Trump’s daughter, Ivanka, who will also attend the Global Entrepreneurship Summit, likely to be held in Hyderabad this November.

Also Read: Pakistan, China, Afghanistan Dominated Mattis-Doval Meet: US

The Af-Pak Challenge

General Mattis retired after 44 years in the Marine Corps. His last assignment was serving as the head of the US Central Command (Centcom), the American military’s wing in charge of all its Middle East forces.

He was credited for bringing US-Pakistan relations back on an even keel in the aftermath of the arrest of CIA contractor Raymond Davis and the killing of Osama bin Laden.

Although New Delhi was not part of the Centcom’s reach, Mattis recognised that “Pakistan’s long standing tensions with India are an important part of Pakistan’s strategic decision-making calculus and military force posture.”

“However, the presence of extremist sanctuaries in Pakistan significantly impacts our progress in Afghanistan, and with the Pakistan military’s help, we are taking important steps to improve cross-border operations,” he had said.

India can also take comfort in Mattis’ view on continued US military presence in Afghanistan. In 2013, he had recommended that 13,600 American soldiers remain in Afghanistan instead of the proposed 9,800.

Also Read: How Will Trump’s India Card Play in the Afghan Great Game?

Two years later, he wrote:

In Afghanistan, we need to consider if we’re asking for the same outcome there as we saw last summer in Iraq if we pull out all our troops on the Administration’s proposed timeline. Echoing the military advice given on the same issue in Iraq, gains achieved at great cost against our enemy in Afghanistan are reversible.

However, Pakistan insisted the US help restrict India’s role in Afghanistan. Specifically, India’s support to the Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP), which is accused of perpetrating terror in Pakistan.

Mattis’ request that India moderate its support for TTP will put New Delhi in a fix because TTP is useful as an Indian counterpart to the Hizbul Mujahideen, Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad employed by Pakistan’s ISI, Bharat Karnad wrote in Hindustan Times.

Severing relations with TTP will mean India surrendering an active card in Pakistan and a role in Afghanistan as TTP additionally provides access to certain Afghan Taliban factions.

Bharat Karnad in <i>HT</i>

Also Read: How Will Donald Trump’s Cabinet View South Asia?

Hard Selling F-16s

Though the US has got defence contracts worth more than $15 billion since 2007, it is looking to capture a larger share of the Indian market. General Mattis will hope to get India to commit to purchase the Lockheed Martin F-16 Block 70 aircraft under the bilateral Defence Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI).

The US Air Force stopped buying F-16 fighter planes in 1999. Ever since, the production of the fighter jets has been steadily declining. According to The Hindu Business Line, Lockheed Martin has committed to offering India the most upgraded version of the fighter jet – F-16 Block 70 – the production line of which will be established in India in collaboration with Tata Advanced Systems Ltd, while shutting down its assembly line in Fort Worth, Texas.

However, since the company is unlikely to transfer proprietary technologies or even guarantee the performance of any Indian-made F-16, it is unlikely to sit with Indian negotiators.

Incidentally, Pakistan got China to study its F-16s and reverse engineer many of its technologies. Even the upgraded F-16 Block 70 may not pass muster in comparison to the Pakistan Air Force’s version.

Not surprisingly, the F-16 was the first to be dropped by the Indian Air Force while shortlisting aircraft for Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) acquisition.

The other contender is Sweden’s SAAB with the Gripen E, which made it maiden flight in June 2017. But, Bharat Karnad notes how Washington could veto Sweden’s sale.

Depending on how keen the Trump Administration is to close US’ $24.3 billion 2016 trade deficit with India, Washington could veto Sweden’s sale of Gripen aircraft and technologies as 35 to 40 percent of the components of this aircraft are sourced from the US.

Bharat Karnad in <i>HT</i>

Deal For The Sea Guardian Drone?

According to an NDTV report, the sale of 22 Sea Guardian reconnaissance drones to India would be discussed on priority during the Defence Secretary's visit. The potential acquisition of these remotely-piloted vehicles assumes significance in the context of maritime security, especially considering China's muscle-flexing in the Indian Ocean with submarines.

Regarding this, officials were quoted by NDTV as saying:

Sea Guardian is top of Secretary Mattis’ agenda...Maritime security is of common interest due to Chinese aggression with submarines in the Indian Ocean, so this platform is a military and diplomatic message to all.

Power Games in South China Sea

While speaking at the annual Shangri La Dialogue, General Mattis quoted Prime Minister Modi as he put forth his point on freedom of navigation in the South China sea.

“We recognise India as a strategic partnership and it’s role in stabilising the region.”

Describing India as a key piece in the “jigsaw puzzle” for the US, top American think tank Atlantic Council urged the Trump administration to prioritise its ties with India.

Given the advancement China has made both economically and militarily, the US will need to channel considerable resources to assert its global and regional primacy… To accomplish this, India remains a key piece in the jigsaw for the US President Trump will need to assure India that it is not merely a regional prop to balance Beijing’s power in the region, but a top priority for US foreign policy under the Trump administration.

Atlantic Council

Would it Live up To Expectations?

Underplaying the above aspects, an Indian Express report, citing sources, points out how the “only tangible outcome” of the visit might be the announcement of a bilateral maritime exercise between the navies of the two countries, in which the emphasis would be Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR).

Not much movement can be expected on aspects such as the sale of F-16s and the Guardian drones, the report indicates.

In the case of the latter, a source claimed that "the two sides are still trying to reconcile the differences" and "are not on the same sheet".