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(This article was first published on 11 July 2022. It has been republished from The Quint's archives as India overtook China as the most populated country.)
The 2019 edition of United Nations' World Population Prospects (WPP) predicted that India was projected to surpass China as the world's most populous country by 2027. But the 2022 edition, released on Monday, 11 July, has projected India to cross the milestone four years earlier – becoming the world's most populous country by 2023.
For now, China remains the most populated country in the world with 1,426 million people – and India only slightly behind with 1,412 million. But this scenario is far from the 'doomsday-like' scenario it is being portrayed as, experts tell The Quint.
To put things into perspective – the world population will touch 8 billion by the end of this year, 9.7 billion by 2050, and 10.4 billion 2100, the UN report stated. But this is also happening at a time when the pace of population growth is slowing significantly – as a result of falling fertility rates in various parts of the globe.
Replacement level of fertility is the level at which a population replaces itself from one generation to the other.
"Imagine, India is a country of 10 couples. And eight of them decide to have two children. Then, India will have 16 children. Whereas, Bangladesh is a country of only four couples. Out of which three of them have two children each. Despite falling fertility rate, India's population is bound to increase in absolute terms in the coming years," Singh said.
But this does not mean India starts thinking along the lines of 'Population Control Bills' – ones that aim to enforce a two-child policy, and penalise those who violate the rule. Instead we should focus on demographic dividend and health infrastructure.
A demographic dividend occurs when the ratio of the working-age population is higher, while the dependency ratio in terms of the proportion of children and elderly people is low. When the demographic dividend of the country is higher, it means that more people are there to engage in economic productivity.
But just having the population does not mean that the 'golden period' will be achieved. This needs focused investment in education, skill building, and also creating the right opportunities for the population.
"One way this could already be done is by harnessing India's digital footprint to ensure that India's youth are gainfully employed. Policies and programmes that connect, say, a farmer with technology, mindfully investing in technology for small and medium businesses are some aspects that the government can focus on," Neera Nundy, Managing Partner, Dasra, an NGO that works to help India achieve sustainable development goals, told The Quint.
Ignoring women in workforce, and the lack of policies to encourage them, or to build their skill – will also lead to ineffective utilisation of the demographic dividend.
"There have been several estimates on how India has the lowest women in workforce. It has more to do with gender inequalities in the country, the social and patriarchal norms in our society. But again, now is the time to fix that as well," Singh said.
Between 2010 and 2020, the number of women in India's workforce had already dropped to 19 percent from 26 percent, according to data compiled by the World Bank. The COVID-19 pandemic and the ensuing lockdown announced by the Narendra Modi government in March 2020 accelerated the rate of decrease steeply with more than 100 million jobs lost during this period.
However, it is not to be forgotten that while India may be a 'young' country right now, the case may not be so in the next 20-30 decades – especially in certain states where the fertility rates have already fallen drastically.
According to ‘Youth in India 2022’ report released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Himachal Pradesh are projected to see a higher elderly population than the youth by 2036.
Nundy asserted that India should start devising strong policies and infrastructure for palliative care and community health facilities. She added that while COVID-19 pandemic led to the strengthening of frontline like the ASHA who were most effective in stopping spread of infections, India may have to think along similar lines for caregivers for an ageing population.
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