IMD Forecasts Normal Monsoon for Third Straight Year

Between 96 and 104 percent of the long-period average is considered a normal monsoon.

Image used for representational purposes.

(Photo: Reuters)

India’s monsoon rains, that provide water to half of the country’s cultivated land, will be normal for the third straight year aiding a rebound in growth.

India will receive 97 percent of the long-period average rainfall this year, according to the Indian Meteorological Department. “We feel that India is going to experience a third successive normal monsoon,” KJ Ramesh, director general of meteorology at the IMD said in a media conference.

There is a very less probability of deficit monsoon to be experienced by India during 2018.

KJ Ramesh, Director General of Meteorology, IMD

Between 96 percent and 104 percent of the long-period average is considered a normal monsoon, and the margin of error is 5 percent.

More than 70 percent of India’s yearly rainfall occurs between July and September, making monsoons a key factor for the rural economy as agriculture and allied activities, according to the Economic Survey, account for half the employment and contribute 16 percent to the nation’s gross domestic product. Moreover, a revival in rural consumption is crucial to boost growth after the twin shocks of demonetisation and the Goods and Services Tax.

(Photo: BloombergQuint)

IMD said that it will come out with its next assessment of the monsoon in June. It will release an assessment of the onset of monsoon in Kerala on 15 May.

Last year, India just about managed to receive normal rainfall – 95 percent of the long-period average. 

The distribution was uneven though with only the southern states receiving normal rainfall. East, north-east, north-west and central India received rainfall that was lower than the long-term average.

(This article was originally published on BloombergQuint)