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At least 90 fishermen dead, 821 rescued and 661 still missing. More than 10,000 houses destroyed.
Thousands distraught. Rescue operations underway. Indian Navy, Indian Coast Guard and Indian Air Force at work. Kerala government seeks Rs 7,340 crore in relief. Tamil Nadu government wants Rs 9,300 crore.
This is what Cyclone Ockhi has left in its wake.
A 2016 World Health Organisation (WHO) report, which was quoted in the Rajya Sabha in 2017, says 12 crore Indians are already exposed to coastal floods and cyclones each year.
Let’s examine what went wrong during Cyclone Ockhi by asking questions which place the latest guidelines on cyclone management against ground realities.
1. Was There a Delay in Sounding Alert for Cyclone Ockhi?
Well, officially no.
Home Minister Rajnath Singh said in Lok Sabha on 23 December 2017, "The IMD issued a warning on 29 November itself, and bulletins were issued every three hours. It was a rare storm which developed from deep depression to lethal cyclonic storm in only six hours."
According to the IMD website, cyclone warnings come in four stages. The first warning known as the "pre-cyclone watch" is to be issued 72 hours in advance, followed by the cyclone alert issued at least 48 hours in advance, and the rest of them every few hours.
Devasahayam, a former IAS officer, said that there is a need to revisit the cyclone warning system.
Speaking to The Quint, Peer Muhamad, who is Convenor of Rebuild Kanyakumari Movement, said the warnings came too late. Also adding that there was sufficient information to sound a warning days before, considering how fishermen venture into the sea for more than a month at a stretch.
“Fishermen pack supplies and go into deep into the sea. For them a cyclone alert that sounded 48 or 24 hours in advance holds no relevance whatsoever. It was definitely too late,” he said.
“Even the warning issued on 29 November by the fisheries department merely said that the seas are rough and winds will blow at 70km/h. This is not a good enough warning. By 30 November, the cyclone had already devastated Kanyakumari,” he said.
Muhamad says that if rescue operations had started a week in advance, the Indian Navy and Coast Guard could have gone up to 200 nautical miles and escorted the fishermen to safety.
2. Was there adequate co-ordination to ensure a speedy response and rescue?
In the eight chapters of the NDMA’s 2005 guidelines, all aspects of cyclone management – which include warning, structural mitigation measures, management of coastal zones, awareness generation up to response, etc – have been discussed in detail.
Each chapter in the end lists a few ‘Major Action Points’.
Former NDMA member Mohan Kanda, who retired as the chief secretary of Andhra Pradesh, told The Quint that:
He went on to say that during Cyclone Huhud, which hit Vishakapatnam and other coastal states in October 2014, the co-ordination was far superior. “But, this is utter failure. The co-ordination is anchored by the NDMA body headed by the PM of India. Where were they?” Kanda said.
Devasahayam says the body responsible for co-ordination has been lying defunct.
“The NDMA is headed by the PM and they should hold quarterly review meetings with representatives of these ministries. But the body is not functioning. The body has been considerably downsized from eight people to four, and the post of its vice-chairman was abolished.”
While the NDMA’s performance in the last few years has not been up to the mark, India’s track record of managing the aftermath of devastating cyclones over the last five decades has been questionable. Here’s why:-
Yes, almost 50 years ago.
After two cyclones struck Andhra Pradesh in 1969, the Government of India appointed the Cyclone Distress Mitigation Committee (CDMC) in 1970. This committee made 59 recommendations which were valid for all states vulnerable to cyclones.
The CDMC was only the first of many committees appointed to this job.
Eight years later, Andhra Pradesh was hit by another cyclone in 1977. But what was the reason to worry? We had 59 solid recommendations made which would come to the rescue.
After the cyclone caused devastation, the government decided to see if the 1970 recommendations were even implemented or not. For this, another committee was set up. (Please keep count).
Ok, so let's get this straight.
Now, a second committee was set-up to ensure the implementation of recommendations made by the first committee. Why? Why can't we just implement the recommendations straight off and not get engrossed in the clerical spiral of committees considering the unpredictability of natural disasters.
It was in 1978 that that government also realised there was a need to use science and technology to come up with the best solutions. Alright, but did this ‘realisation’ lead to better performance? Let’s see.
In 1979, a decade after the 1969 Andhra Pradesh cyclone, the secretary of the Department of Science and Technology brought the cyclone issues to the notice of another committee, which one this time? The National Committee of Science and Technology (NCST).
The secretary said a Cyclone Review Committee (Fourth one, keep up the count) be set up under the NCST to carry out a complete review of all aspects of cyclone management. The committee submitted its report along with recommendations in 1984. And guess what?
A high-powered committee (fifth committee in 30 years) was constituted in 1999 to prepare a comprehensive plans for the management of disasters at the national, state and district levels.
These recommendations were used by state governments to set up:-
i) State Crisis Management Groups
ii) Relief commissioners
iii) Put in place state/district contingency plans
iv) Set up a Calamity Relief Fund, etc
After five committees under various departments gave their guidelines, another action plan was issued by the NDMA in 2005. What was the need when we already had guidelines in place?
Well the NDMA says: "The paradigm shift in the Government of India’s focus from the earlier rescue and relief-centric approach to a holistic approach covering all aspects of disaster management has been the thrust of this effort to evolve national guidelines for the management of cyclones."
What is clear is that existing guidelines need a revamp, and co-ordination between ministries have to be smoother. “The government has not shown the kind of initiative needed to save lives, only lethargy and laziness,” said Peer Mohamad.
To reduce tragedy to another clerical round of committees would expose the government’s lack of initiative or pure disinterest, or has it already?
(At The Quint, we question everything. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member today.)