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"My entry into politics is certain.”
With these words, Rajinikanth answered the million dollar question on Sunday that many in Tamil Nadu have been asking for several decades now. In a state that has seen a symbiotic relationship between cinema and politics, neither the question nor the answer come as a surprise, really.
No, says journalist Kavitha Muralidharan, to the question of whether Rajini can chart an MGR-esque course.
As for Jayalalithaa, senior journalist Maalan says, “By the time Jayalalithaa joined politics, she had almost quit films. She also had the blessing and support of MGR’s fans. She converted that to political strength.” He goes on to add:
“Only Vijayakanth succeeded to some extent,” says political analyst Gnaani. “And that’s because Vijayakanth’s political message was being an alternative to the DMK and the AIADMK,” he says.
But surely the star power, the familiarity, and the status of a demigod matters? Gnaani disagrees.
And whether Rajini can deliver, observers say, is still unclear – especially since Rajini is seen as a ‘reluctant politician.’
“He has always been silent on many issues that have politically affected Tamil Nadu. His real interest in coming to politics is unclear,” says Kavitha. “He has also not been very active or vocal even within the film world. There have been issues within Tamil cinema that have not been addressed and he’s always remained aloof,” she adds.
Many believe that Rajini’s entry into politics is too late.
She adds that a fan base does not always equal a voter base, “Rajinikanth fans are in their late forties or early fifties. He has failed to capture the imagination of the young voters in the state.”
Gnaani however points out, “While a fan base doesn’t automatically turn into a voter base, it is useful in creating a party structure. You need a party structure for delivery. At the booth level, you need a committee everywhere. That party structure can be provided by a fan base.”
Maalan also adds that Rajini may be able to give some credibility to the non-Dravidian, nationalist ideology that the BJP is finding difficult to sell in Tamil Nadu.
And being Rajinikanth does come with its own advantages, Maalan points out.
He adds, “But now, almost all ideologies have become irrelevant in electoral politics. Game of electoral politics is being played with caste, coalition arrangements, money power, ground work, etc. Rajinikanth will be able set a discourse on national versus Dravidian politics.”
But these exact factors could also flip on him, Maalan cautions. While it is apparent that Rajinikanth’s ideologies may be more of a natural fit to the BJP at the Centre, if he does choose to ally with them, this presents a direct contradiction with the Tamil voter.
“BJP may think Rajini is very suitable for them and a popular back to ride on – but for that Rajini has to first join the BJP. His fans don’t want him to join another political party. His fans want him to float his own political party. If Rajini joins the BJP, most Rajini fans would desert him, because his fans are drawn from different political ideologies,” he adds.
On the other hand, he may not be able to make a dent independently either, says senior journalist Ramakrishnan. “I’m not sure he’ll make a big dent as an independent political entity. The DMK and the AIADMK have been the principal political forces in the state and they will remain so for many years to come,” he says.
So will there be a Rajinikanth vs Kamal Haasan in the coming years? Only time – and the two actor-politicians – can tell.
(This article was originally published on The News Minute and has been republished here with permission)
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