Monsoon Woes Resurface as August Records Deficiency of 22%

IARI says Kharif food grain production may fall below last year’s level (Photo: Reuters)

Dry Spell

• Monsoon deficiency in August highest in the season so far
• Overall deficiency declines marginally to 11%
• June recorded excess monsoon of 16% while July saw 16% deficiency
• Inflation numbers, particularly food prices, will be key to watch now

After the pick-up in rains in mid-July helped allay fears of drought, worries of a weak monsoon are resurfacing. August has recorded a monsoon deficiency of 22%, the highest in the season so far, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday. The overall deficit declined marginally to 11%.

“This month, the deficiency was 22%,” said Laxman Singh Rathore, Director General of the IMD.

The MET department has already predicted 12% deficiency. This year June witnessed excess monsoon of 16% whereas July recorded a deficit of 16%.

The IMD has predicted an overall deficit of 16% for August and September. With June witnessing excess monsoon, it proved to be a good news for sowing. However, September will be crucial to ensure good food grain production.

Food Grain Production to be Hit?

Indian Agriculture Research Institute (IARI), government’s premier agri-research body said the initial Kharif food grain production may fall below last year’s level of 126.31 million tonnes if crucial September rains are not well distributed.

It will be critical to watch the inflation numbers in the coming months, as food prices are likely to rise, given the deficient rainfall. The Reserve Bank Governor Raghuram Rajan has maintained that any hike in policy rates will be subject to the outlook on inflation.

(With inputs from PTI)