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The Reserve bank of India (RBI) has estimated that Indian banking system’s “bad loans” could see a sharp jump by September. This is reportedly owing to present macroeconomic climate.
Further, in what is being dubbed the “worst case scenario”, the gross bad loans could go as high as 14.8 percent by the second quarter of Financial Year 2021-2022. This would be the highest level it has gone upto in two decades, reported BQ.
According to BQ, gross bad loans stood at 7.5 percent in 2019.
RBI has reportedly said that gross Non Performing Assets (NPAs) have been tumbling consistently over the last two years. In July-September 2020, gross NPAs reportedly stood at 7.5 percent.
Further, the slippage ratio has come down to 0.15 percent as of September.
This improvement, according to the RBI report, “was aided significantly by the regulatory dispensations extended in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.”
Further, according to BQ, the RBI report projects the system level adequacy ratio to drop from 15.6 percent to 14 percent in September 2021, under the baseline scenario. Under the severe stress scenario, RBI projects it to drop to 12.5 percent.
The RBI also said that overall the banking system’s capital base may be able to tolerate the stress caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. However, some individual banks, according to RBI, may need support through phase wise infusion or other such measures.
In his forward to the financial stability report, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, according to ANI, said that even though the Indian banking system faced the coronavirus pandemic with reasonable capital and liquidity buffers, “the pandemic threatens to result in balance sheet impairments and capital shortfalls, especially as regulatory reliefs are rolled back."
According to Livemint, he also said:
(With inputs from BloombergQuint, IANS and Livemint.)
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