Someone Is Preparing For The Worst After 2019 Elections

Options traders made two bets: Nifty Index won’t fall below 9,000 and the index will decline below 10,500 in June.

A broker laughs while speaking to a colleague, as they trade on their computer terminals at a stock brokerage firm in Mumbai, 4 March 2015. 

(Photo: Reuters)

Some hedgers are bracing for a slide in the Indian markets once the results for the 2019 general election are out in May.

Options traders made two large bets: That the Nifty Index won’t fall below 9,000 and the index will decline below 10,500 in June — the closest long-dated option available around the poll results.

While it’s not possible to identify the trader or traders, Bloomberg’s Block Trade Monitor shows a notional amount of more than $52 million was wagered in two put spreads. It’s an option spread strategy when equal number of put options are bought and sold simultaneously.

The trader(s) bought put options at 10,500 strike price while simultaneously selling put options at 9,000 strike price, aggregating to a notional $52.80 million. The trader(s) will profit if the index stays below 10,500 (the higher strike minus the premium paid), which is roughly 10,175 level on the index.

The trade is an example of someone looking to protect equity holding against a fall of more than 5 percent from the current levels.

(Source: BloombergQuint)

With the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party losing in all three states of Hindi heartland, there is a growing uncertainty about Prime Minister Narendra Modi getting a second term. That made traders and investors cautious and they are looking at strategies to protect their portfolio.

Option trades like the one mentioned earlier are executed to hedge against a decline in underlying values. The aggregate premium for the trades was about $1.56 million, or 2.95 percent of the notional amount at risk.

(This story was originally published on BloombergQuint)