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Contrary to popular belief, coalition governments are generally stable and usually last their full term. What has unfolded in Scotland therefore requires some explaining.
Broadly, First Minister Humza Yousaf of the pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP) abruptly terminated an agreement with his governing partners, the Scottish Greens, before they had a chance to do the same. The move backfired almost immediately, and Yousaf ended up resigning.
But how did he get into this situation in the first place?
In the Scottish election of 2021, the SNP won 64 out of 129 seats in parliament – one shy of an overall majority. A minority government was a feasible option (and had been how the SNP governed following similar results in 2007 and 2016).
From the Greens’ perspective, too, a coalition made sense. The SNP’s one-seat gain meant an effective government-opposition tie in parliament, diminishing the ability of opposition parties to influence legislation.
An agreement seemed the best chance for impact. The two parties therefore drew up the Bute House agreement – a loose coalition which included junior ministerial positions for the Greens and a shared policy platform, but substantial opt-outs.
Things began to go wrong for the coalition in February 2023, after the fall of Sturgeon. Her sudden departure removed a linchpin from the party and left no clear successor.
A dearth of talent at the top of the SNP was exposed and the leadership campaign ended up in a close match between Yousaf (as the “Sturgeonite” social democratic candidate) and former finance minister Kate Forbes.
Forbes represented the party’s right wing, which was hostile to the Greens as too economically leftist and socially libertarian (especially on transgender rights), arguing that their positions alienated voters. Yousaf eked out a narrow victory and the Greens agreed to continue in office.
The leadership election had exposed deep rifts in the SNP and emboldened right-leaning critics of the deal. Increasingly, the SNP began to act unilaterally. A key example was the scrapping of proposed reforms to council tax in October 2023, following a Labour by-election victory.
A spooked Yousaf returned to the SNP’s previous policy of council tax freezes (despite a spiralling local government funding crisis), leaving a trail of angry Greens in his wake.
During this period the SNP leadership seems to have taken onboard media and opposition narratives that the Greens’ policies and presence in government were dragging down the SNP’s poll ratings.
This narrative also overlooks the huge hit to the SNP’s reputation from a string of scandals, as well as growing failings in the NHS and cost of living issues.
The immediate trigger for the crisis came on 18 April, when the government announced it was scrapping the highly ambitious climate targets written into the Bute House agreement, again with seemingly minimal consultation with the Greens. For the Green membership, that was the final straw.
Party co-leaders Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater announced they would ask Greens members to vote in May on whether the party should continue in the coalition.
Instead, mystifyingly, Yousaf chose to ditch the Greens before they had chance to ditch him. Seemingly, he must have imagined that this would make him look decisive and that it would give the impression that he had calculated that the Greens would return happily to their 2016-21 role as a friend but not partner to the governing party.
If this was his intention, it is bizarre that he made no effort to negotiate an end to the coalition and sound out the Greens on a looser arrangement. He instead briefly informed them of the agreement’s termination. Not entirely unreasonably, the smaller party was apoplectic.
If they joined the opposition in voting in favour of the motion – which they swiftly confirmed they would – he would be forced to stand down.
The only way for Yousaf to secure his position would be to strike a deal with the only MSP from former SNP-leader Alex Salmond’s Alba Party – something which he could not countenance.
A day later, Scottish Labour tabled a second vote of no confidence – this time in the government as a whole. The consequences of this passing would be even more severe for the party as a whole, and Yousaf was left with little choice.
With the Yousaf-era ending, speculation is now rife over his successor. John Swinney, a key figure under Sturgeon, is rapidly emerging as the frontrunner. In many ways, his appointment would shows lessons learnt from Yousaf – he would be a leader with a recognised track record of ministerial competence and political nous.
But while Swinney may restore some of the SNP’s much-tarnished reputation for governing competence, the problem of securing reliable parliamentary allies has not been faced.
(This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same. This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article here.)
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