All the Moving Parts in Sri Lanka’s Slow-Burning Political Crisis

As Sri Lanka’s political crisis deepens, here’s a quick explainer to get you up to speed on the players & the game.

The collapse of Sri Lanka’s first-ever coalition government, and the events that unfolded after 26 October, has put the island nation back under political turmoil.

(Photo: Aroop Mishra/The Quint)

A power grab and its repercussions are playing out in Sri Lanka as the world watches. It began with Sri Lankan President Maithripala Sirisena sacking Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe on 26 October and declaring former president Mahinda Rajapaksa the new prime minister.

The sacking set in motion both a political and constitutional crisis, with Sirisena then dissolving Parliament and calling for snap elections on 5 January. Both these decrees, however, were overturned by the Sri Lankan Supreme Court on 13 November.

On 14 November, in a floor test to determine majority, the Speaker declared, based on a voice vote, that the Parliament had passed a no-confidence motion against the newly-appointed appointed Rajapaksa government – the Rajapaksa faction denied the result amid chaotic scenes, with members walking out. With both factions claiming the actions of the other are illegitimate and illegal, the country seems set to slip further into turmoil.

As the tussle continues, here’s a look at the key players and the developments so far.

Who Are the Players?

The crisis centres around three main characters: President Maithripala Sirisena, ousted prime minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, and former strongman president Mahinda Rajapaksa.

The three were pitted against each other in a different combination during the last elections that saw Sirisena elected to power.

Sirisena and Wickremesinghe are ideological opponents who had formed a coalition to defeat Rajapaksa in the 2015 elections, and they have now reverted to being on opposing sides.

Rajapaksa, who was president from 2005 to 2015, is considered a hero by some in Sri Lanka's ethnic Sinhalese majority because he oversaw the end of a 25-year civil war by crushing ethnic minority Tamil rebels in 2009. By others, he is considered a strongman who is close to China. His time in power had been marred by allegations of war-time atrocities, corruption and nepotism.

The Build-up

Tensions had been building between Sirisena and Wickremesinghe for some time, as the president did not approve of economic reforms introduced by the prime minister.

Wickremesinghe's government came under fire last year after handing over operations of a port to a Chinese company in a 99-year lease that the previous Rajapaksa government had built in Rajapaksa's home district with Chinese loans.

Rajapaksa described the deal to his left-leaning supporters as a bid by Wickremesinghe to privatise national assets. Wickremesinghe said in an interview with AP that the deal helped the country avoid defaulting on debts accumulated during Rajapaksa's own presidency.

Sirisena has accused Wickremesinghe and another Cabinet member of plotting to assassinate him, a charge that Wickremesinghe has repeatedly denied and that so far has not led to any arrests.

The Powerplay

26 October is when the alliance between Sirisena and Wickremesinghe formally fell apart, with Sirisena naming Rajapaksa the new prime minister and suspending Parliament.

After a week of upheaval, Sirisena announced he was dissolving Parliament and calling snap elections due on 5 January. He later explained in a nationally televised address that he dissolved Parliament out of fear that lawmakers would come to blows over his 26 October decision.

Not Going Quietly

Wickremesinghe had been holed up in the prime minister's official residence in Colombo, surrounded by a skeleton security crew, supporters and Buddhist monks, since he was ousted. He maintains that he is the country's rightful leader and was illegally deposed. He had been repeatedly calling for Parliament to be reconvened so that he could prove his majority support among the country's 225 lawmakers.

He alleged that the snap election was called only when it became clear that Rajapaksa had failed to lure enough lawmakers to his side with offers of cash and jobs and would lose any confidence vote in Parliament.

As It Stands

However, on 13 November, both of Sirisena’s presidential decrees – that Parliament be dissolved and that snap elections be held on 5 January – were overturned by Sri Lanka’s Supreme Court, and a floor test was held on 14 November.

The Speaker of the House declared after the floor test that a no-confidence motion against the appointed Rajapaksa government had been passed, to raucous denials by the Rajapaksa faction. The fact that the Speaker did not count the votes but instead took a voice vote before making the declaration prompted anger in the Rajapaksa camp, with both factions claiming the actions of the other are illegal.

A Constitutional Question

There is debate over whether Sirisena's 26 October move was legal.

He has cited a general clause in Sri Lanka's Constitution stating that the president has the power to summon or suspend Parliament.

Supreme Court petitioners from the Wickremesinghe camp challenging Sirisena's actions argue that a specific clause in the 19th amendment, added in 2015, stipulates that Parliament can't be dissolved until 4.5 years after its election, unless 2/3 of Parliament requests it happen sooner. The current Parliament was elected in August 2015.

So Who's In Charge Right Now?

Sirisena and Rajapaksa formed a Cabinet of party loyalists and government defectors within days of the 26 October shakeup. They quickly cut fuel prices – a popular measure among those who blamed the Wickremesinghe-led government for Sri Lanka's sluggish economy.

The World Watches

The US has said that Sirisena's decision to dissolve Parliament "poses a vital threat to Sri Lanka's democratic institutions." Colombo-based diplomats from Australia, the UK and the European Union also issued statements calling for the country's Constitution and democracy to be respected.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has offered to moderate discussions between Rajapaksa and Wickremesinghe. On Sunday, he urged the government to respect "democratic processes and institutions."

China and India have been careful not to take an overt position in Sri Lanka, which has been a battleground in their struggle for geopolitical supremacy in South Asia.

(With inputs from AP)