Hindu Card to Hardik Factor, What Worked This Gujarat Election?

What led to actual gains in vote share and seats in the toughest electoral battle Gujarat has seen in 22 years?

In 2019, will the Gujarat election result be seen as a turning point or a blip in the Modi juggernaut? 

(Photo: The Quint)

The 2017 Gujarat Assembly election was the toughest electoral fight the state has seen in the last 22 years. The campaign witnessed the redefining of caste identities, the forging of new alliances , the emergence of young local leaders and the Congress playing a gamble that could’ve gone both ways.

But what led to actual gains in vote share and seats? Here’s the lowdown of what worked for the Congress and the BJP this Assembly election.

Did Caste Equations Impact the Poll Result?

The election campaign in Gujarat was driven by the demand for caste-based reservation. Be it Hardik Patel’s Patidar annamat andolan, Alpesh Thakor’s OBC Ekta Manch or Jignesh Mevani’s Rashtriya Dalit Adhikar Manch – identity politics ruled the campaign narrative. But did it impact the election result?

In one word? No.

BJP’s victory in the state indicates that the caste rumblings in Una, Mehsana and Gandhinagar did not impact the overall result. It did, however, allow three under-30, local leaders to break new ground in the political arena of a state dominated by two national parties.

Did the Hindu Card Work for Rahul Gandhi?

Rahul Gandhi set the campaign agenda with the clear aim to target rural Gujarat and shed the anti-Hindu image of the Congress party. The Congress president’s ‘temple run’ – a whirlwind tour of 21 temples, including Somnath – is among the factors that helped the Congress increase its seat and vote share.

Not only has the Congress retained its three seats in Somnath district, it has replaced the BJP in Kodinar to take control of all four assembly segments.

Rahul Gandhi kicked off his election campaign at the Dwarkadhish Temple, visited a Navratri pandal in Jamnagar and was seen wearing a red tilak at several public appearances. In what is a clear break from the 2002, 2007 and 2012 campaigns, not once did the newly inducted Congress president mention the 2002 riots, in any of the 30 rallies that he addressed this election.

In 2012, the Congress party won 60/182 seats in the Gujarat assembly with a vote share of 38.9%. In 2017, the party has won 80 seats with a vote share of 41.4%.

The Congress has increased its vote share by 2.5% in the last five years.

In 2012, the BJP won 116 seats with 47.95 vote share. In 2017, it’s set to form government with a 49% vote share and 99 seats.

On the face of it, the BJP too has marginally increased its vote share, but a look at the numbers since 2007, would indicate the Congress has steadily chipped away at the BJP’s core support.

In 2007, the BJP won 117 seats with 47.9% vote share. The Congress won 59 seats with a 36.63% vote share. The gap in vote share was 12.49%.

In 2012, the Congress narrowed it down to 9%. This year, the Congress has further narrowed the gap to 7.6% – the lowest, since 1995.

Did the Pakistan Rhetoric Prove to be a Fail Safe for BJP?

The BJP’s high-pitched campaign just before the second round of voting on 14 December, seems to have worked to the party’s advantage. In 2012, the BJP won a tally of 52 seats from the region. In 2017, the party was leading in at least 59 seats.

Addressing a campaign rally in North Gujarat on 10 December, PM Modi had asked if there was any link between the Gujarat elections and a dinner meeting at Congressman Mani Shankar Aiyar’s house that was attended by Pakistan’s former high commissioner, Pakistan’s former foreign minister, India’s former vice-president and former prime minister Manmohan Singh.

The speech provoked a reaction from Mani Shankar Aiyar who referred to PM Modi as a ‘neech kism ka aadmi’, which was spun as a caste jibe by the BJP.

Modi invoked Gujarat’s ‘asmita’ and warned of serious electoral consequences for the Congress.

Did the Hardik Factor Work?

Together, Saurashtra and Kutch account for 54 seats in the 182-strong Gujarat assembly. In 2012, BJP won 34 seats in the area. In 2017, the BJP is leading in 20 and the Congress in 34 seats. The Patidhar agitation and dissatisfaction among farmers have significantly impacted the BJP’s prospects in the region.