Why Arunachal Pradesh Is Staring at President’s Rule

What led to the political and constitutional crisis in Arunachal Pradesh and why it spells bad news for India.

How the political and constitutional crisis in Arunachal Pradesh precipitated into a national emergency. (Photo Courtesy: Lijumol Joseph/The Quint)

Arunachal Pradesh is one signature away from President’s rule. Pranab Mukherjee is believed to have demanded an explanation from the Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh on the need for central rule in the Congress-ruled state. Especially, since the matter is subject to the Supreme Court’s consideration.

But how did the internal crisis precipitate in the frontier state that shares a border that is more than 890 kilometers long with China, much of which is disputed?

Nabam Tuki (Centre) is now banking on the central Congress leadership and the Supreme Court to retain his position as Chief Minister (Photo Courtesy: Twitter/@NabamtukiCM)

Internal Bickering

“The only political party that can survive in Arunachal Pradesh is the umbrella party”, jokes veteran journalist and editor of the Arunachal Front, Pradeep Kumar, while speaking to The Quint. His reference is to the political and constitutional drama that unfolded in the capital, Itanagar, on December 16.

Trouble had been brewing since April 2015 when Chief Minister Nabam Tuki dropped Kalikho Pul as the Health and Family Welfare Minister for his “poor performance”. In retaliation, Pul reportedly rounded up considerable support from rebel Congress leaders and tried to effect a change of leadership.

The Arunachal Assembly was at the centre of the constitutional drama on December 16, 2015. (Photo Courtesy: livelaw.in)

BJP Senses an Opportunity

Around the same time, the BJP, riding high on the year-old Modi wave, was ready for mid-term elections, but the idea was dropped after the Congress MLAs, still reeling from the 2014 debacle, failed to match their enthusiasm.

Sensing the Congress’ house in disarray, the BJP demanded that Chief Minister Nabam Tuki prove he still had the confidence of the House. For this, they appealed to the Governor Prakash Rajkhowa to advance the winter session of the assembly.

The Governor allowed the Winter Session of the Assembly to be advanced by a month to December 16. This incensed Chief Minister Nabam Tuki and the Congress Party who saw it as a constitutional overreach prompted by political leanings towards the BJP. It also started a nationwide debate among constitutional experts on the powers enjoyed by the nominal head of a state.

Even as the Congress approached the Guwahati High Court, the Assembly Speaker Nebam Rebia, who remains a Tuki loyalist, ordered the Assembly premises to be locked down.

One Governor, One State, Two Chief Ministers?

Not to be deterred, the rebels comprising 21 Congress MLAs, 11 BJP and 2 independents (a total of 34 MLAs in a 60-member Assembly) decided to follow the order of business in a school building adjacent to the Assembly complex.

Incidentally, of the 21 Congress rebels, 14 MLAs had earlier been disqualified by Nebam Rebia for “participating in anti-party activities” and 2 others had resigned, or as they claim “were forced to hand in resignation letters by the Chief Minister”.

This renegade Assembly impeached Assembly Speaker Nebam Rebia, restored the membership of the 14 MLAs who had been disqualified and later accepted Kalikho Pul as their Chief Minister.

“Law and order is not under control in the state and jungle raj prevails there”, said Arunachal Pradesh Governor (Left) on December 18, 2015. (Photo: IANS)

Had it not been for the intervention of the Guwahati High Court and the Congress workers who blocked the rebels’ route to the Raj Bhavan, Kalikho Pul may well have formed a new government in Arunachal Pradesh.

Financial Embezzlement or Deficit?

The power struggle in Itanagar centers around an alleged Rs 6,000 crore scam.

Shortly after Kalikho Pul was dropped from the Cabinet and expelled from the Congress Party, he accused the Arunachal Pradesh government of financial mismanagement to the tune of Rs 6,000 crore.

The Nabam Tuki government promptly denied the charges but admitted an accumulated deficit of Rs 4,486.74 crore over 10 years. The Arunachal Pradesh government is completely financially dependent on the Centre and claimed that the grants given by the 13th Finance Commission did not cover the salaries and pensions of the 18,863 government employees recruited over the last 10 years.

Rebel Congress leader Kalikho Pul claims to have the backing of 21 Congress, 11 BJP and 2 Independent MLAs. (Photo Courtesy: nelive.in)

Current Status

The Supreme Court is set to take up a bunch of petitions pertaining to the constitutional crisis in Arunachal Pradesh.

There are two moot questions that it’s going to tackle:

Impact on National Politics

The Congress, meanwhile, is set to petition the Apex Court if President’s rule is imposed. It’s anti-government rhetoric was, on Monday, emboldened by the Janata Dal (United) and the Aam Aadmi Party.