Debate | Will Nitish’s Flip Flip Cost JD(U)-BJP Alliance in Bihar?

Will Modi-Nitish duo be a tough challenge for the RJD-Congress combination? Has RJD been too generous with allies?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi with Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) chief Ram Vilas Paswan and others being felicitated during an election rally, ahead of the Lok Sabha polls, in Bhagalpur. Image used for representation. 

(Photo: PTI)

Bihar, with 40 seats, is turning out to be one of the most difficult states to predict in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

Though there are two camps – NDA on one side and Mahagathbandhan (grand alliance) on the other – so many players have switched sides in the last four years that making the calculation of a possible outcome is a tough job.

Without overshadowing Nitish Kumar, who switched from NDA before 2014 to RJD and split again only to join BJP, several small players have also been found flip-flopping.

Where does that leave the complex situation of vote tally in Bihar? Will the Modi-Nitish duo be a tough challenge for the RJD-Congress combination? Has RJD been too generous with allies?

Talking to BloombergQuint, Satyavrat Mishra, Senior Principal Correspondent from Business Standard in Patna recalled the shifting dynamics of Nitish’s political relationship with PM Modi.

“This is the first time Nitish Kumar is canvassing Bihar for Narendra Modi as Prime Minister. If you remember, almost 10 years ago, he had banned Narendra Modi from entering Bihar,” Mishra said.

‘Where are the Jobs, People Want to Know’

“One thing I have found remarkable is that people are asking about jobs and that why do they have to migrate from the state. People are asking questions about the performance of govt in terms of irrigation capacity, education and health services,” Mishra told BloombergQuint.

Associate professor of Political Studies at Central University of South Bihar, Praveen Shahi, said that while Nitish is canvassing Bihar for Modi for the first time, it must be noted that this is not for the first time that JD(U) and BJP are coming together.

“My understanding is that perhaps in the way in which RJD has tried to distribute seats among their allies within the grand alliance has to do something with the realities of ground. This same challenge can be faced with JD(U)-NDA alliance,” Shahi said.

“Every state has its dynamics compared to the national level issues which may come into play. As far as Bihar is concerned, certain development issues may be a concern but most political parties are still banking on caste factor (for seat distribution). This possibility cannot be ruled out,” Shahi said, explaining the factors influencing seat distribution among alliance in Bihar.

How Campaigning Has Unfolded in Bihar so Far?

Campaigning ended on Tuesday for the second of seven-phase Lok Sabha polls in Bihar covering 5 of the 40 seats in the state.

In the second phase, polls will be held in the Bhagalpur, Banka, Katihar, Kishanganj and Purnea constituencies.

The first phase of polls for 4 seats was held on 11April in Gaya, Nawada, Jamui and Aurangabad parliamentary constituencies. All of these are areas affected by Maoist violence.

The over two-week long campaigning saw canvassing by top leaders of the ruling NDA - BJP, JD(U) and LJP, and the Opposition grand alliance of RJD, Congress, RLSP, HAM and VIP.

Besides, the six Left parties, the BSP and Pappu Yadav's Jan Adhikar Party also hit the campaign trail.

The campaigning witnessed war of words, and was occasionally marred by personal attacks to score points. The run-up to the election saw hectic campaigning by star campaigners like Prime Minister Narendra Modi, BJP President Amit Shah, Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar.

Congress President Rahul Gandhi, former Chief Minister Rabri Devi of the RJD, Leader of Opposition Tejashwi Yadav, RLSP chief and former Union Minister Upendra Kushwaha and former Chief Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi were among the other prominent campaigners.

More than 85 lakh voters are eligible to decide the fate of 68 candidates in the second round of polling on Thursday.