Bengal Elections: Exit Polls Show Slim Margin Between TMC & BJP

It seems to be a clear contest between the two parties.

West Bengal Exit Polls

(Photo: The Quint)

As the month-long, eight-phased West Bengal elections come to an end, the exit polls for all five poll-bound states have been declared.

For West Bengal, all exit polls show a small margin of victory between the reigning Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Let's take a look at what the different exit polls have to say about the state's electoral prospects.

C Voter: TMC Over Half Way Mark, But Sharp Fall From 2016 Numbers

The C Voter survey has predicted a victory for the Trinamool Congress, but also massive gains for the BJP from its 2016 numbers.

The survey predicts 158 seats for the TMC and 115 seats for the BJP out of the 294 seats in the West Bengal assembly. Of this, 292 polled in this election. The Sanjukta Morcha, consisting of the Left, Congress and the Indian Secular Front (ISF) has been given 20 seats.

In terms of vote share, C Voter shows a negative 2.6 percent swing for the TMC from the 2016 elections, taking its vote share to 42.1 percent. The BJP, on the other hand, is expected to have a positive swing of about 30 percent from 2016, taking its vote share to 39.2 percent.

Republic-Jan Ki Baat: BJP Win By Big Margin

The Republic-CNX survey predicts a sweep for the BJP with a seat range of 162-185. The survey pits the TMC at 104 to 121 seats and the Sanjukta Morcha between 3-9 seats.

It also predicts a vote-share of 44 percent for the Trinamool Congress.

Republic-CNX Shows Hung Assembly

The Republic-CNX poll on the other hand shows a hung assembly. It shows a slight edge for the BJP, however. The poll puts TMC at between 128-138, and the BJP between 138-148.

India Today-Axis My India: Neck & Neck Between TMC & BJP

The India Today-Axis My India poll predicts a neck-and-neck contest between the TMC and BJP. The poll puts the TMC’s seats at 130-156 while the BJP’s at 134-160.

In terms of region-wise share, the polls predict a lead for the TMC in the 108 seats of Bengal's Presidency area with 75 seats.

However, in North Bengal, the survey predicts that all 27 seats will go to the BJP.

In the Malda region, out of 47 seats, the survey gives 31 seats to TMC while 16 seats have been given to the BJP.

News 24-Chankaya: TMC Sweep

The News 24-Chankaya poll predicts a clean sweep for the Trinamool Congress, well beyond the half-way mark.

This is also the only poll which shows the BJP below the 100 marks.

The survey puts TMC at 169-191 and the BJP between 97 and 119.

What Do These Predictions Mean?

The predictions across exit polls show that the turning point for both the BJP and the TMC will be the areas of Junglemahal and North Bengal.

Both these areas saw massive BJP gains in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. These are also areas where the Scheduled Caste and Scheduled Tribe voters play a crucial role.

Both the TMC and the BJP have made a concerted push to win over these social groups.

In North Bengal, it will be interesting to see if the Bimal Gurung factor aids the TMC. Gurung, a leader of the Gorkha Janmukti Morcha (GJM), was underground since 2017 after riots in the Darjeeling hills. He sided with the BJP in the 2019 elections, which led to party winning all hill seats in that election.

However, in 2020, Gurung came out of hiding and pledged support to Mamata Banerjee. It remains to be seen if his followers will switch en masse to the TMC as well.

All eyes now on the results which will be declared on 2 May.