Will SP-Congress’ Anti-BJP Politics Become the New Poll Weapon?

The UP electoral campaign could lead to ‘BJP versus the rest’ poll contests in the future, writes Hilal Ahmed.

(Photo: Lijumol Joseph/ The Quint)

The Samajwadi Party (SP)-Congress alliance in Uttar Pradesh should not entirely be seen in relation to the forthcoming state elections. Although the two parties have not yet shown any desire to go beyond the immediate objective of securing a majority in the UP Assembly, the manner in which the campaign has been launched clearly reflects the emergence of a new political language.

Will Anti-BJPism be the New Motto?

In an interview, for instance, Akhilesh Yadav said:

“We have given a message to the country that if there is such an alliance, especially in UP, then I think you will see changes in the country and national politics. If 73 BJP MPs had not won from here then maybe there would not have been such a powerful sarkar in the country.”

The ‘changes’ Akhilesh Yadav spoke about are intrinsically linked to opposition to the BJP. Does this mean that anti-BJPism (like the anti-Congressism of the late 1960s and 1970s) will be the new reference point of politics in the coming years?

This proposition is clearly evident in the SP-Congress’ electoral campaign. The BJP, if not Narendra Modi, has been identified as the prime opponent in the state. Even the BSP, which is often underestimated by political observers, has not yet become the prime target for the SP-Congress alliance. Interestingly, the BSP’s strategy to maintain a critical distance from the SP-Congress also points towards a perceptible opposition to BJP.

(Infographic: Rhythum Seth/ The Quint)

It’s BJP vs the Rest

The SP-Congress alliance’s comparison with Bihar’s Mahagathbandhan is useful here. The JD(U)-RJD-Congress coalition was formed primarily to stop the BJP. Although the caste-religion factors made a decisive comeback in Bihar, especially after the comment made by RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat on reservation, the entire election turned out to be a battle between the BJP and others.

The political scenario in UP is undoubtedly different from Bihar in two respects: the BSP and other smaller parties have not yet joined the main coalition against the BJP; and at the same time, the BSP, one of main stakeholders in the state, is also trying to capitalise on its core constituency, the Jatavs. In this sense, it is clearly a triangular contest.

But BJP’s self-portrayal in the state is equally relevant. The party, it seems, is no longer interested in making long-term coalitions. The BJP brass is still trying to utilise Modi’s brand value to attract the votes of identified communities. This aggressive posturing certainly paves the way for political polarisation between BJP and others, at least in the state.

BJP’s Recent Resurgence

The BJP’s emergence as a major political force is another important aspect for gradual intensification of anti-BJPism as a form of politics. The BJP’s performance in the state Assemblies in the post-2014 general election is a telling example.

The party not merely did well in the states where it already had a significant support base, but successfully registered its presence in Kerala and Jammu and Kashmir.

The BJP’s vote share increased in Assam, Bihar and Maharashtra, while in J&K, Delhi, Jharkhand and West Bengal, it went down considerably. Despite this mixed response to the Modi-led BJP, the party emerged as an important player in most of the Assembly elections.

Political Reluctance of Non-BJP Parties

If the BJP has become a decisive pole of Indian politics, why do other political forces feel hesitant to evoke anti-BJPism as a legitimate slogan? In fact, on the contrary, it is the BJP that has been talking of a ‘Congress Mukt-Bharat’?

The political reluctance of non-BJP parties is understandable. Unlike the late 1980s and early 1990s when the Babri Masjid-Ram Temple issue provided an opportunity to non-BJP parties to come tighter to form a secular camp, the messiness of the post-2014 politics has not yet offered such clear ideological prospects.

Since the secular-communal binary has lost its significance, Indian politics has been searching for new metaphors to organise itself for some time.

Beyond Rhetoric

The emerging rhetoric of ‘opposing BJP’, in this sense, is quite instructive. Bihar and UP have shown two different forms of anti-BJP politics.

The third form emerged in Delhi when AAP fought a virtually one-sided election against the BJP (and this is what they are hoping to do in Punjab as well, though in a different mode). If such political experiments continue to affect state-level politics, anti-BJPism might find a concrete shape in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

However, it depends on the intellectual capabilities of the non-BJP parties. If they fail to provide any persuasive arguments in favour of their opposition to the BJP, they would not be able to make sustainable coalitions. This is also true about the BJP. If the party fails to get rid of Brand Modi in the long-run, or increase its reliance on aggressive Hindutva, it will lose its status as a ‘referent power’ of contemporary Indian politics.

(The writer is assistant professor, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, and Rajya Sabha Fellow 2015-2016. He can be reached @Ahmed1Hilal. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)

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