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It has been quite an experience, for more than one reason, to read reports and columns by veteran journalists, calling the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections in favour of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). One such column appeared in the Hindustan Times on Friday.
The arguments are mostly the same – the BJP has stitched together a broad, and seemingly invincible, coalition of upper castes, extreme backward classes and non-Jatav Dalits. These journalists argue that sheer numbers have placed the BJP at pole position.
Do we need to remind seasoned opinion makers that people vote differently, and for different issues, in the Lok Sabha and the Assembly elections?
The data suggests that in 2012, the polity was fragmented. Travels across western UP (where elections have already been held) and eastern UP (where polling is scheduled for 4 and 8 March) indicate that voters were, and remain, unsure about which party to vote for – some of the responses may be attributed to hedging, or even a polite refusal to disclose preference.
Are there no state-level issues that will play on voters’ minds before they cast their ballots?
While much has been said and written about the SP-Congress alliance and its fortunes, the BSP is no bit player. It enjoys substantial support among the Dalit community, especially the Jatavs, across all districts of UP.
The Mayawati-led party has certainly been hit by demonetisation, but in western UP, it could well end up with the bulk of the seats in its kitty.
The rational voter will also consider what the BJP has to offer, save for its intermittent deployment of shrill and subtle Hindutva rhetoric, bordering on the communal.
Besides, the BJP’s campaign is devoid of the development word, with even a desperate Modi and many others taking all opportunities to give vent to not-so-subtle communal rhetoric. A bigger problem for the BJP, however, is that in district after district, the party is faced with internal dissension, characterised by dissatisfaction over ticket distribution.
Seven-time BJP MLA Shyamdeb Roychowdhury’s anger with his party speaks for itself.
The BJP tried to have more of the same in Bihar and failed. And the party has been trying to, without much success, forge such a dream coalition in UP for more than two decades now. The group of EBCs consists of a multitude of castes with varying aspirations. Similarly, the non-Jatav Dalits group is not a monolith.
Predictions make for interesting reading when backed by some numbers and empirical evidence – the number of people spoken to from such broad caste groups, for instance. What has been predicted may well turn out to be true.
Post script: One newspaper column used wrong data on the BJP’s vote in the 2015 Bihar assembly elections. In Bihar, the BJP’s vote share was not 34 percent, but merely 24.42 percent. Social science research methods tell us that data, especially quantitative data, must not only be reliable but also valid.
(At The Quint, we question everything. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member today.)