How Accurate Were the Telangana Exit Poll Results in the 2018 Assembly Election?

Telangana: Check what the prominent exit polls had predicted in 2018, and whether they matched the final results.

(Photo: The Quint Lab)

The final results of the Telangana Assembly elections 2023 will only come in on Counting Day, 3 December, but as polling concludes, different pollsters and news channels are releasing their exit poll results.

Exit polls are usually seen as an indicator of polling trends. Sometimes, they have proven to be in sync with the final results, but on other occasions, they have ended up being inaccurate.

So, how accurate were the exit polls in the previous Telangana Assembly election, in 2018?

Here's what the prominent exit polls had predicted in 2018. Let's take a look at the numbers before we get down to the detailed analysis.

How Accurate were Exit Polls in Telangana 2018?

(Photo: Nivedita S)

Poll-by-Poll Analysis: Who Got It Right, Who Was off the Mark?

Times Now's CNX was right in their forecast of the BRS winning a majority. However, it overestimated Congress+ tally by 18 seats and underestimated BRS's tally by 22 seats.

Republic's Jan ki Baat was wrong in their forecast of the range of seats that would be won by the parties. But they were right in predicting the BRS winning the majority and Congress coming in second.

Republic's CVoter was way off on the range of the total seats won by the parties. However, they were accurate in predicting the BRS winning the majority and the Congress emerging in second place.

India Today's Axis My India was spot on, predicting BRS winning within a range of 79-91 seats and BJP winning in between 1-3 seats. It overestimated Congress's haul and underestimated the seats won by Others.

NewsX's Neta was wrong in their forecast of the number of seats won by the parties; giving BRS 57 seats and Congress 46 seats when it won 88 and 19 seats respectively.

So, out of the five polls we looked at, all were right in predicting that BRS would become the single largest political party. Only one was right in their tally for BRS and all of them overestimated the number of seats won by Congress+. Overall, there was a unanimous, clear pick that came through the exit polls of 2018 Telangana elections.

Will the exit polls get it right in 2023? None of us will have the answer to that question till 3 December! But do tune in to The Quint on Telangana's Counting Day as we get you the answer to that question, and much more, with live news, updates and election results analysis.