Sleight of Data: ISB Students Rate Modi Govt’s Economic Policies

The ISB students strongly criticised the Modi government’s refusal to disclose official data on unemployment.

Students of the outgoing Batch of 2019 at the Indian School of Business in Hyderabad rate the Modi government’s economic policies.

(Photo: Meghnad Bose/The Quint)

We asked students of the outgoing batch (2019) at the Indian School of Business in Hyderabad to rate the Modi government’s economic policies. The students from different parts of the country spoke up about the government’s refusal to disclose official data on unemployment, discussed whether the ease of doing business in India has improved under the Modi regime, and how they view the controversial revision of GDP numbers.

The following are excerpts from the conversation.

How well do you think the Modi government has handled the economy?

Aayushya Kumar, Jamshedpur resident: Look at the GST, which has several slabs. Look at demonetisation, which didn't do anything for us. Even the Ease of Doing Business is not functioning properly because surrounding policies have not been properly implemented. So, even on the count of being this so-called 'pro-economics government', they haven't actually brought any kind of benefit to us.

Shakeel Syed, Guwahati resident: In service, there is one golden rule, and that is, 'under-promise and over-deliver'. I think this government has done the exact opposite.

Jayant Parchuri, Hyderabad resident: Grassroots level economic changes are happening right now in India. In the case of Mudra Yojana, they are giving out loans to bring out entrepreneurs in villages. That's a good scheme. The Modi government has also brought in financial inclusiveness with the Jan Dhan Yojana.

Aayushya Kumar: I think the biggest problem this government has created is the erosion of good faith in the system and holding detractors accountable. I don't think any kind of economic discussion is possible without proper reporting of data. When it comes to total transparency and removing any kind of information asymmetry that exists, I think this government has failed.

Priyam Singh, Patna resident: I think the major issue was in terms of execution and performance measurement. The metrics are not clear.

Where’s the Official Data on Unemployment?

According to a leaked NSSO report, unemployment in 2017-2018 among the labour force was 6.1%, the highest level in India after 1972-1973.(Photo courtesy: The Quint)

There’s a lot that has been said about the jobs crisis and the rate of unemployment in the Modi years. What do you think about the various conflicting claims that have been made in this regard?

Akshay Thakur, Bengaluru resident: We do not know what the NSSO report (on unemployment) says because it hasn't been shown to the public. This is a problem because we can't have a blind debate about jobs.

Snigdha Chaturvedi, Lucknow resident: Regarding increasing the number of jobs, data has been fudged and the measurement metrics have been changed.

Priyam Singh: They're changing them as per their convenience. They are trying to focus on saying that the number of people under the EPFO schemes is increasing. But the whole point is that that is not a metric to judge job creation, but to see how much of it is getting formalised. So, the kind of deviation and distraction that is being created is moving us away from the exact topic that we want to address.

Greater Ease of Doing Business?

Has the Ease of Doing Business improved under the Modi administration?

Shakeel Syed: I believe that the current government has taken some good measures to aid the overall prospects of doing business in our country. Notably, I could name the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code that was instituted by this government. I think the Arbitration Act (amendment) is a very positive step because it induces the element of speed into resolving commercial disputes.

Has the ease of doing business increased?(Photo: iStock)

Vipin Sirigiri, Hyderabad resident: Our unemployment is highest in 45 years, so why is this not matching with the Ease of Doing Business (EODB)? I think, partly, this is attributed to the way in which the EODB rankings have been gamed by the Modi government. For example, there are 10 metrics that World Bank tracks for EODB.

For starting a new business, if you had 11 requirements, you would  be in a different bracket. If you had less than 10 requirements, you would be in another ranking bracket. Just making such small tweaks, such as removing one officer from needing to check for permit, is responsible for the jumps in rankings we saw.

‘Worried by the Rise of NPAs’

Priyam Singh: We need to take care of the fact that the NPA is also doubling. It's become a bigger problem because the amount is increasing and the actions that are supposed to be taken are not being taken. It looks like it is giving a very strong message that it is very easy to do something like this and evade authorities. We see some level of discomfort within the government to take any action, or their inability to process things in a faster way.

‘Implementation of GST a Huge Achievement’

ISB student Akshay Thakur says, “GST will prove to be one of the most consequential and biggest achievements of the Modi government.”(Photo: The Quint/Abhilash Mallick)

Akshay Thakur: The fact that the Goods and Services Tax (GST) has been implemented is a huge thing that the country has been able to do. There were issues initially, when it came to compliance and technology, but these issues have been reduced now. There was a reduction in collection of tax, that has come up now. So, there were growing pains, but in the long term, GST will prove to be one of the most consequential and biggest achievements of the Modi government.

The Controversial Revision of GDP Numbers

The revision of GDP numbers by the Modi government has remained a contentious issue.(Photo: iStockphoto/Altered by The Quint)

“Even on GDP, the government changed the data as per its convenience. The whole idea was to always come out with a rosy picture. I agree that every government wants to do that, but here the effort spent on this was much higher than the effort actually spent on making practical implementations of the policies.”

Priyam Singh, ISB student and Patna resident

Demonetisation Woes

Was demonetisation a prudent economic policy?(Photo: Harsh Sahani/The Quint)

Jayant Parchuri: Demonetisation, at its core, is not a prudent policy decision. 86% of our economy is run on cash. 90% of our workforce is in the informal sector, which is again dependent on cash. So, there were two clear red flags. Removing cash out of the system in such an economy has obviously brought India's economy into a chaotic situation. That shows in the GDP numbers, the growth has stunted.

Your Demands From the Next Government?

Regardless of which party or alliance comes to power, what would your demands from the next government be?(Photo: The Quint)

Aayushya Kumar: Two major demands – first would obviously be to create a reliable data base of reporting so that we stop questioning facts. As has been properly stated, we are entitled to our own opinions, but not to our own facts. The second would be removing the problems which the agricultural sector is currently going through.

Jayant Parchuri: The demand to the next government is that, whoever comes back to power, is that they focus more on sustainable job creation instead of just saying that employment can be of any form.