Maharashtra Exit Polls: Is Split of Shiv Sena & NCP Harming BJP-NDA? 3 Takeaways

As per exit polls, Uddhav Thackeray-Sharad Pawar-led MVA is clearly expected to harm the BJP-led NDA in the state.

(Photo: The Quint)

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The exit poll predictions for Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra are out and the Uddhav Thackeray-Sharad Pawar-led Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) is clearly expected to harm the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the state, as per at least seven exit polls.

According to the polls, the MVA is expected to win between 15-26 of the 48 seats while the NDA is likely to win between 22-34 seats. This is the generic range of predictions across polls.

But the three out of the four key exit polls that The Quint tracked — Today's Chanakya, Republic-PMARQ and India Today-Axis My India — predicted between 15-20 seats for MVA and between 29-34 seats for NDA.

(Photo: The Quint)

One exit poll, CVoter predicted a neck and neck between both sides with the NDA expected to win between 22-26 and 23-25 for the MVA.

According to India Today-Axis My India, the vote share for NDA is approximately 46% while for the INDIA bloc it may be at 43%.

Though these are not the final results, if the numbers on 4 June remain in similar ranges, three key messages that emerge from these figures:

Clear Dent to Devendra Fadnavis-led NDA

The BJP and united Shiv Sena won 23 and 18 seats respectively in both 2014 and 2019 elections, their total tally being 41 in both.

According to most exit polls, the NDA in 2024 is expected to take the lead but its total tally is not predicted to cross 40 despite combined forces of three parties — BJP, Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena, and Ajit Pawar's Nationalist Congress Party (NCP).

According to India Today-Axis My India, the vote share of NDA is predicted to be about 46%, a significant drop from the 51.34% vote share it had in 2019 and 48.4% in 2014.

'United We Stand': Message Clear for MVA

The MVA has clearly given a tough fight, but may fall short of the majority despite the sympathy wave for Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar following the split of the Shiv Sena and the MVA.

The predictions, if they come true, send a clear message that the MVA is stronger only if it remains united.

With several polls predicting the vote share to be a little over 40%, it indicates a significant gain for the Opposition's tally which was a little over 34% in 2014 and about 32% in 2019.

Sena vs Sena, NCP vs NCP: Predictions Unclear

What remains to be seen is which Shiv Sena or which NCP gets the upper hand in the number of seats and the vote share.

While some exit polls have given a slight edge in the number of seats to Thackeray's Shiv Sena and Pawar's NCP, the figures mostly vary.

According to India Today-Axis My India, the party-wise figures are as follows:

• BJP: 20-22

• Shiv Sena: 8-10

• NCP (Ajit Pawar):1-2

• Congress: 3-4

• NCP(Sharad Pawar): 3-5

• Shiv Sena (UBT): 9-11

• Others: 0-2

If one is to consider these figures, a split NCP may gain more seats individually than what a united party got in 2014 and 2019. Meanwhile, the tally of the split Senas may remain more or less around 18-19 seats.

What would be interesting to watch out is the gains of the Congress which won just two and one seats in 2014 and 2019 respectively.