2024 Lok Sabha Elections: Can BJP Maintain its Winning Streak in North Bengal?

The saffron party had won seven out of the eight seats in the region in 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

When Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a rally in Siliguri recently, Leader of Opposition in West Bengal, Suvendu Adhikari, said that North Bengal has always been "the Prime Minister's bastion".

(Photo: PTI)

When Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a rally in Siliguri recently, Leader of Opposition in West Bengal, Suvendu Adhikari, said that North Bengal has always been "the prime minister's bastion".

"North Bengal has been in Prime Minister Modi's favour since 2014. In 2019, his vote percentage increased, and in 2021, his support base in North Bengal was intact. Here, people respect him, love him, and consider him to be their own," Adhikari remarked on 9 March.

Adhikari was not entirely wrong in making that claim.

There are eight seats in the region – Darjeeling, Cooch Behar, Alipurduar, Jalpaigudi, Raiganj, Balurghat, Malda North, and Malda South.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) bagged seven out of the eight seats. During the 2021 Assembly elections, the saffron brigade bagged 30 of the 54 Assembly seats in the region.

Writing about his visit to North Bengal recently, Sutanu Guru, who is the Executive Director of the CVoter Foundation, noted that he "saw saffron flags fluttering everywhere."

"My sense sitting in Delhi was that the Ram Temple 'hype' was a North Indian phenomenon. But North Bengal surprised me," he noted.

On the other hand, the Trinamool Party (TMC) has struggled to make inroads into the region which has some of the state's poorest districts.

In this article, The Quint decodes the reason behind the BJP's winning streak, what makes the region complex, and what are the prospects of the BJP in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.

What Explains the BJP's Hold Over Region?

"The North Bengal region till about the 2014 elections had largely been a Left bastion (barring Darjeeling which had swung between different parties). But unlike the rest of the state, when the winds of change arrived and the TMC started taking over the Left bastions, the same did not happen in North Bengal," political analyst Professor Samiran Paul told The Quint.

"Instead, the power shifted from the CPI(M) to the BJP. The 2019 Lok Sabha and 2021 Assembly election results are a proof of that."

Paul explained that the BJP's strong footprint was to do with its organisational presence in the region. "Unlike in Kolkata or 24 North Parganas, when it comes to street and muscle power in North Bengal, the BJP is more or less evenly matched to the TMC," he explained.

Meanwhile, experts blame the TMC – and its supremo Mamata Banerjee – for not delivering on their promises.

"In 2011, when Mamata Banerjee came to power, she had promised more industries, and more jobs. However, 12 years down the line, no substantial development has taken place," Anil Bhuimali, a professor of economics at the University of North Bengal in Siliguri, told The Quint.

A Siliguri-based senior journalist, who did not want to be named, said, "As a result, there are no jobs, and youths from the region have to migrate outside to earn a living. For instance, some villages in Darjeeling are turning into ghost villages with the entire population abandoning their homes and migrating outside for jobs. There are households where the only people living there are the elderly people."

The Wire reported last year that between 2001 and 2011, one lakh people had migrated out of West Bengal, but in the following eight years, the number skyrocketed to 11 lakhs.

As per the 2011 Census, West Bengal ranks at the fourth place among states which see the highest migration of people for employment every year.

Bhuimali told The Quint that outward migration from North Bengal, especially from the tea garden belts, has been a reality for long now. There are approximately 450 tea gardens spread out in the Darjeeling hills, Terai, and Duars region.

"Nothing substantial has been done to improve the tea industry in these areas – and there are no other industries that can provide jobs to the youths. So, most migrate outside to states like Uttar Pradesh, Kerala, and others to work as daily wage labourers," Bhuimali added.

What Makes Administering North Bengal Tough?

Professor Paul argued that one of the reasons that makes the region tough to administer is its complex demographics.

The eight districts of the region are home to various tribes, castes, and ethnicities.

While the Nepali-speaking Gorkha community primarily lives in the hilly districts of Darjeeling and Kalimpong, the presence of tribes such as Totos is significant in the Jalpaiguri district and in the foothills of the Darjeeling district. Meanwhile, the districts of Cooch Behar, Jalpaiguri, and Uttar as well as Dakhin Dinajpurs have a large population of Rajbanshi community, who comprise about 30 percent of the electorate in North Bengal.

Additionally, a sizeable population of Muslims live in Uttar as well as Dakhin Dinajpurs along with Malda district.

"It is like a mosaic of ethnicities and identities, and all this diversity has manifested in the demand for multiple statehoods," added Paul.

While the people from the hilly districts of Darjeeling and Kalimpong want Gorkhaland, the Rajbanshis want Kamtapur or Greater Cooch Behar state. There are also Bodos (who are known as Mechs) living in various districts of the region who have been demanding for Bodoland.

"While Mamata Banerjee has time and again reiterated that she is against the division of Bengal, the BJP has tried to woo voters from this region by promising them a permanent political solution for the hills of North Bengal," he said.

Additionally, the journalist, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, added that there has been some resentment among people in the region towards the TMC's "attempt to woo and appease the Muslim community for some votes."

"Many here see the TMC's outreach towards Muslim community as problematic. They have alleged that the TMC is busy making voter ID and Aadhaar cards for illegal migrants, and hence have no time for development. Folks in North Bengal are not willing to accept Rohingya Muslims. They are described as completely 'un-Indian' and alien and also dangerous," he said.

On the other hand, "the BJP is cultivating in into their minds a narrative that these 'illegal migrants' or 'Rohingya Muslims' are taking away their lands, jobs etc. There has been an unease among people because of it and a growing resentment towards the Muslim community, " he added.

What are the BJP's Prospects This Time?

Professor Paul, however, feels that out of the eight seats in the region, the saffron party's prospects seem to be on a weak footing in Raiganj and Darjeeling this time around.

Explaining why, he elaborated, "The people of Raiganj feel that there have been demographic changes in their areas due to 'illegal migration', especially from Bangladesh, and they blame the BJP's inefficiency to tackle the TMC in protecting these illegal migrants."

Paul added that the Centre recently notifying the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) will affect Rajbanshi votes as well.

"In North Bengal, the Rajbanshi community are vehemently opposed to the CAA; they instead want the implementation of the National Register of Citizens (NRC). The BJP, therefore, is facing the challenge of mitigating discontent among the Rajbanshi community."

"Meanwhile, the people of Darjeeling feel the Modi government has failed to deliver on its promise for a 'permanent political solution' for the hills and Scheduled Tribe status for 11 hill communities," he added.

In its 2019 manifesto, the BJP had promised a "permanent solution to the problems that have roiled the Darjeeling hills."

The saffron party was referring to the contentious demand for a separate state of Gorkhaland that the hills of Darjeeling have been demanding since the late 1980s. Since 2009, the BJP has held the Darjeeling seat.

However, Modi recently claimed the BJP was very close to resolving the issue, which more or less means a separate Gorkhaland state.

While the saffron party has fielded Union Minister of State for Youth Affairs and Sports Nisith Pramanik from Cooch Behar for the second time, the TMC has fielded Jagadish Chandra Barma Basunia from the same seat. A prominent leader, Basunia currently holds the position of MLA in the Sitai Assembly.

The BJP is yet to announce its candidates for the Raiganj and Darjeeling Lok Sabha seats.

The TMC has fielded Krishna Kalyani from the Raiganj Parliamentary constituency. The TMC has never won from this seat.

An industrialist as well as social worker, Kalyani in the last Assembly election had contested from Raiganj seat with a BJP ticket and was victorious. He then joined the TMC.

Gopal Lama, a former administrative officer of the West Bengal government, has been fielded from the Darjeeling Lok Sabha seat by the TMC.