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According to the final figures put out by the Election Commission (EC), the voter turnout in the first two phases of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections has stayed at the level we had seen in 2014. While the turnout inched up marginally – by a measly 0.68 percentage points – in the first phase, the second phase witnessed a minor dip of 0.45 percentage points.
Does the number give any indication of what the eventual outcome is likely to be?
Very little, if we confine ourselves to the all-India picture. However, the overall number hides wide regional variations. Here are some of the highlights based on the final numbers released by the EC on 20 April:
Why should flat to negative voter turnout worry the BJP when the conventional wisdom suggests otherwise? The answer lies in the BJP’s 2014 election verdict.
Here are some of the salient features of the last election verdict, suggesting strong correlation between higher voter turnout and strong performance by the BJP:
The BJP won almost 90 percent of the seats in these states.
Let us recall that the BJP lost its fortress of Gorakhpur Lok Sabha seat after nearly three decades in a bypoll in 2018. Low voter turnout, at just 49 percent, was attributed as the primary reason for the unexpected loss in a seat represented till then by Yogi Adityanath. Other than combined opposition candidate’s formidable arithmetic, what harmed the BJP the most was perceived lack of enthusiasm among its supporters. The BJP, incidentally, had won the seat with a vote share in excess of 50 percent in 2014.
The party suffered the same fate in UP’s Phulpur (voter turnout at a meagre 37 percent) and Bihar Araria (turnout at 50 percent) in bypolls. Political observers attributed the loss to the BJP’s inability to mobilise its core support base to vote.
The BJP and its allies had won 115 out 128 seats in the two states alone.
Let us also recall that despite India apparently shining, Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s BJP’s loss was accompanied by dip in voter turnout from a high of nearly 60 percent in 1999, to little over 58 percent in 2004.
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Published: 20 Apr 2019,10:08 PM IST