Lok Sabha Election Result: BJP's Loss is Congress' Gain in Haryana; Why BJP Lost

Large scale rural unrest against the BJP due to agrarian distress and lack of jobs may have cut the party's votes.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, all of the state's 10 seats were won by the BJP with a vote share of 58.2 percent. This time, however, the party appears to be losing at least five of these seats.

(Image: The Quint/Kamran Akhter)

As the results for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections began trickling in, Haryana emerged as one of the major turnaround stories, with the Congress leading in five seats out of 10.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, all of the state's 10 seats were won by the BJP with a vote share of 58.2 percent. This time, however, the party appears to be losing at least five of these seats and its vote share has also fallen in a number of seats.

This loss could spell serious trouble for the BJP in Haryana, which is set to witness Vidhan Sabha elections later this year.

Who is Leading/Trailing in Haryana?

Former Haryana chief minister Manohar Lal Khattar is leading with a comfortable margin of at least two lakh votes in Karnal, from where he was elected as the MLA in the 2019 Assembly elections. The seat has been held by the BJP since 2014.

The Congress had fielded President of the Haryana Youth Congress Divyanshu Budhiraja against Khattar, who is contesting the Lok Sabha elections for the first time.

Ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, Khattar had resigned as the chief minister of the state after the fall out with the alliance partner Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), led by Dushyant Chautala. After Khattar stepped down, Nayab Singh Saini, who was the sitting Kurukshetra MP, was appointed as the chief minister of Haryana.

As a result of Khattar vacating his seat, a bypoll was necessitated in Karnal, where Saini is leading by a comfortable margin of over 40,000 votes according to the election commission.

From Kurukshetra, the BJP had fielded industrialist Naveen Jindal, who is now leading with a margin of 20,000 votes. Meanwhile, hoping to make an entry into the state, the Aam Aadmi Party had fielded Haryana's party president Sushil Gupta. Indian National Lok Dal's (INLD) had also fielded Abhay Singh Chautala from the seat.

Both AAP and Congress leaders had campaigned for Gupta in Kurukshetra. It remains to be seen if AAP will be able to make inroads in Haryana ahead of Assembly elections in the state.

In Rohtak, Congress candidate Deepender Singh Hooda is leading with a comfortable margin of over three lakh votes and is set to wrest the seat from the sitting MP Arvind Kumar Sharma.

In Gurugram, BJP candidate Rao Inderjeet Singh is leading by over 87,000 votes, leaving Congress' Raj Babbar behind.

In Sonipat and Ambala, both of which, are seats reserved for Scheduled Cast candidates, Congress candidates Satpal Brahamchari and Varun Chaudhry are leading with over 41,000 votes and over 20,000 votes respectively.

In Sirsa, Former Union minister and Congress Working Committee (CWC) member Kumari Selja is leading against BJP's Ashok Tanwar by a comfortable margin of over 2.67 lakh votes. This is an important seat for the INLD and the JJP.

Possible Factors For BJP's Loss

BJP's loss of at least five seats to the Congress comes when there are reports of large scale rural unrest against the BJP government due to farm distress and acute lack of jobs.

In the run up to the elections, The Quint had visited the ground and spoken to workers, who claimed they hadn't received a single day of work under the MGNREGA job guarantee scheme.

So severe is the lack of jobs that locals have chosen to take up jobs abroad, even if it meant going to war-torn countries such as Israel and Russia.

According to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), Haryana has the highest unemployment in India at 37.4 percent as of January 2023.

It is important to note that Jats form 27 percent of Haryana's population and are a dominant community in the state. A sizeable number of Jats in Haryana engage in agriculture.

As reported by The Quint earlier, Jats have been at the fulcrum of not one but as many as three mass protests against the BJP government - the 2016 Jat reservation agitation, the 2020-21 farmers protest, and the 2023 wrestlers' protest. This combined with the unemployment situation has turned Jats decisively against the BJP.

However, the non-Jat communities too are bearing the brunt of unemployment and inflation, particularly in rural areas. As a result, this has caused disaffection even among OBCs, Dalits and Upper Castes.