Which Were the Most Accurate 2019 Exit Polls?

Did the exit polls predict the 2019 results right? Or how much did they miss the mark by?

Each of the major exit polls for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections predicted an NDA victory and Narendra Modi’s return as Prime Minister.

(Photo: PTI)

Each of the major exit polls for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections predicted an NDA victory and Narendra Modi’s return as prime minister. Now that the results are in, we can see that they were right, and how. Here’s a look at which exit poll was most accurate with its predictions.

Exit Polls 2019: Here are the results of the exit polls for the 2019 election.(Photo: The Quint)

The NDA is leading in 347 seats, the UPA in 90 and Others in 105. In terms of the overall numbers, India Today-Axis My India and Chanakya were almost spot on with their predictions. While Axis forecast a range for each category, 339-365 for NDA, 77-108 for UPA and 69-95 for Others, Chanakya had given exact numbers 350 for NDA, 95 for UPA and 97 for Others.

If all current leads materialise into results, Chanakya will only have been 3 seats away from the exact NDA figure, 5 away from the exact UPA figure and 8 away from the Others tally.

Both the UPA and NDA tally are within the range predicted by Axis My India, while their upper limit for Others is 10 short of the Others tally right now. While on air on India Today, Axis My India chief Pradeep Gupta got emotional after seeing that his agency’s exit poll results, which had come in for criticism online, had actually turned out to be very accurate.

How Accurate Have Exit Polls Been in Last Few Lok Sabha Elections?

• In 2004, the exit polls were completely off the mark as the Congress-led UPA defied all the pollsters to oust the Vajpayee-led NDA government from power.
• In 2009, almost all the exit polls gave the UPA a slim lead over the NDA, but the results proved pollsters wrong once again, with the Congress-led alliance securing a lead of more than 100 seats.
• In 2014, all exit polls showed an NDA victory but barring Today’s Chanakya, none of them could correctly predict that the BJP led by Narendra Modi would storm to power with an absolute majority of its own, a feat achieved for the first time since 1984.