BJP Enters Kerala Via Thrissur, Congress Wins 18 Seats: Here Are Key Takeaways

In a first, actor Suresh Gopi won Thrissur by a margin of over 74,000 votes.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has finally opened its account in Kerala – a state that has, for the longest time, remained out of its grip. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has clinched one seat – Thrissur – as counting is underway for the Lok Sabha elections on Tuesday, 4 June.

(Photo: PTI)

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has finally opened its account in Kerala – a state that has, for the longest time, remained out of its grip. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) clinched one seat – Thrissur – where actor Suresh Gopi won by a margin of 74,686 votes.

In Thiruvananthapuram, NDA candidate and Union Minister of State Rajeev Chandrasekhar conceded defeat after a neck-to-neck fight with three-time Congress MP Shashi Tharoor, who won the segment with a margin of 16,077 votes. Chandrasekhar had been leading in the initial rounds of counting.

The party has also improved its overall vote share in Kerala – from 15.64% in 2019 to 16.68% in 2024, as per the latest Election Commission figures.

The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), however, continued to maintain its upper hand in the state by winning 18 seats. In the 2019 elections, the UDF swept 19 out of 20 seats in the state, with the Left Democratic Front (LDF) winning just one seat – Alappuzha.

While the UDF has wrested this seat back from the Left with KC Venugopal's win by a margin of 63,513 votes, the LDF's K Radhakrishnan won in Alathur this time, upsetting the UDF's only woman MP Ramya Haridas.

The big winners in Congress also include Rahul Gandhi, who won Wayanad for a second time by a margin of over 3 lakh votes.

Why the Win is a Big Deal for BJP

In Kerala's 68-year-old history, the BJP has not been able to make inroads in the state, except in 2016 when the party's O Rajagopal won the Nemom Assembly segment in Thiruvananthapuram (which it lost in 2021).

Kerala's resistance to the BJP has been nothing short of baffling for the party all these years, considering that the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) has been active in the state since the 1940s and has over 5,000 shakhas.

The inability of the BJP to make electoral gains in Kerala could be attributed to the presence of two major political fronts, the UDF and the LDF, which are deeply entrenched in the political psyche of the state.

The state's high population of Christians and Muslims, too, has been an impediment for the party, coupled with the lack of Hindu consolidation of votes in a highly literate society.

During the 2018 Sabarimala protests over the LDF government allowing women to enter the hill shrine, the party attempted to drum up Hindu support. While the movement did help the party increase its vote share in the Pathanamthitta Lok Sabha constituency in the 2019 elections, it was the UDF that won the seat.

So, what changed now for the BJP?

What Worked for BJP in Thrissur?

The BJP's gamble to field former Rajya Sabha MP Suresh Gopi for the third time in Thrissur paid off. In the 2019 Lok Sabha and 2021 Assembly elections, Gopi managed to increase the party's vote share in the constituency, though he came third both times.

Hailing from the Nair community, Gopi could manage to sway upper-caste voters in Thrissur, which is known as the cultural capital of Kerala. The BJP, realising that the party also needed the support of Syrian Christians (who make up about 25% of the population), ensured that Gopi frequented churches and met church leaders during his campaigns.

Several church leaders in Kerala have, in fact, been growing close to the BJP over the years, with the Archbishop of Thrissur even meeting senior leaders like Amit Shah in recent times.

Another factor that appears to have worked out for Gopi is the Congress fielding K Muraleedharan, who was the Vadakara MP and the son of former chief minister of Kerala K Karunakaran. Known among party leaders as a 'giant killer', Muraleedharan is known to contest in 'difficult' seats.

However, Muraleedharan, also a Nair, hoped for the support of the same vote base as Gopi – upper castes and Christian voters, who have traditionally supported the Congress in the state. While the CPI's Sunil Kumar has more or less kept his vote share this time – which includes minority, Dalit, and OBC voters – Muraleedharan was pushed to the third place. This means that the BJP has eaten into the Congress' vote share.

More importantly, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had visited Thrissur thrice this year, including for Gopi's daughter's wedding in Guruvayoor temple. He had also promised a Union Minister post to the actor-politician, a promise.

Thiruvananthapuram: A Close Fight

Though Shashi Tharoor won the constituency for a fourth time, Thiruvananthapuram saw a very close fight, signifying the growing presence of the BJP in this seat.

Tharoor has generally enjoyed the support of upper-caste and middle-class voters owing to his 'urban and articulate persona'. But Rajeev Chandrasekhar – a Nair who was born and raised abroad like Tharoor – attempted to woo the same sections in his campaigns, diminishing Tharoor's appeal among the urban and apolitical voters.

This was evident in the way that Tharoor was trailing behind Rajeev Chandrasekhar in several rounds of counting.

Like Gopi, Rajeev Chandrasekhar was also propped up as a potential Union Minister by the BJP.

Tharoor has significant sway in the coastal community of Thiruvananthapuram, which is a UDF bastion (as far as Lok Sabha elections are concerned). The community, which is made up of Latin Christians and Muslims, helped him defeat O Rajagopal in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Rajagopal had been leading in the urban areas of the constituency in the initial rounds of counting.

It appears that history has repeated itself this time, as it is in the final rounds of counting – when votes in the coastal belt of Thiruvananthapuram were being counted – that Tharoor began leading against Chandrasekhar.

This is despite the fact that the Vizhinjam protests of 2022, led by the fisherfolk, had created some anti-incumbency against Tharoor. However, the sentiment against the BJP among the Latin Christians (especially in light of the Manipur conflict), perhaps, pushed the community to choose Tharoor for the fourth time.