Scepticism Shrouds Exit Poll Predicting 25 Seats for BJP in K’taka

Exit polls giving BJP 25 seats has come as a surprise as internal survey predicted only 22 seats in Karnataka.

Siddaramaiah (L), Yeddyurappa (C) and Kumaraswamy (R). 

(Photo: Shruti Mathur/The Quint)

The exit poll predictions for the Lok Sabha election results in Karnataka have presented an unprecedented scenario in the state. Most of the polls have given the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) a landslide victory in the state, with the CVoter survey predicting the least number of seats – 18 seats – for the BJP, which is considered a big mandate.

For the 28 seats in Karnataka, Today’s Chanakya and Ipsos gave the BJP 21-23 seats and Axis has given 21-25. These polls predicted the Congress-JD(S) combine winning 6 seats or less. The Nielsen poll predicts 15 seats for NDA and 13 for UPA. CVoter has given 18 to NDA and 9 to UPA.

But, the predictions showing the BJP winning up to 25 seats have come as a surprise because the internal survey of the BJP had only predicted 22 seats for the party, a number quoted often by the BJP state president BS Yeddyurappa. While party leaders and analysts consider 18 seats out of 28 as a possible result, anything over 20 they believe is difficult.

The 50-50 Seats

In the 2014 parliamentary elections, the BJP had won 17 seats in Karnataka. However, in the 2018 bypoll, the BJP lost the Ballari seat to Congress. After the polls in the state, at least five seats including Ballari were considered as 50-50 seats, which could swing either way. These seats included Kolar, Raichur, Chitradurga and Chamarajnagar. However, the polls have given all these 50-50 seats to the BJP, which many believe is a giving an exceeding benefit of doubt.

Also, according to the polls, the coalition could get only 3-7 seats, but the coalition leaders believe JD(S) itself would win at least 3 seats – Mandya, Hassan and Tumkur.

“The fact that the polls are saying former Prime Minister Deve Gowda will not win in Tumkur shows there is something fundamentally wrong with these surveys. Even the Congress has its bastions like Bangaluru rural, Gulbarga etc. So BJP getting more than 20 is stretching the argument.”

A senior JD(S) leader.

The Coalition Has Failed: BJP

However, the BJP claims a massive landslide is justified by the fact that the people of Karnataka are fed up of the ‘unholy alliance’ in the state. They also added that even though the coalition has been denying the existence of a Modi wave in the state, his charisma has worked for the party.

“The coalition claimed that their combined vote share would give them victory, but what has happened is that the BJP was able to make inroads in many seats, where the JD(S) and Congress were traditional rivals. And the party workers who didn’t approve of this ‘unholy alliance’ voted for the BJP,” said an advisor to the Karnataka BJP.

The Post-Poll Scenarios

If the BJP gains a landline majority in the state, as claimed by the surveys, the BJP says it will be a clear indication of the mood of the state. The voters, who are upset with JD(S) and Congress joining hands even though the BJP was the single largest party, have made their decision clear through the Lok Sabha polls, claims BJP.

Yeddyurappa in a recent statement had claimed there is an ‘atmosphere’ for change of governance in the state, indicating the BJP will once against try to topple the government.

Analysts believe that it is possible for JD(S) to break the alliance with Congress and join hands with BJP, since an Opposition government is predicated to come to power at Centre with a comfortable majority.

But these scenarios will work only in case of a landslide victory, where the BJP would get more than 22 seats in the state. While the BJP winning up to 18 seats in the state is considered a possibility, anything beyond that is looked at with scepticism in the state.