If Karnataka Exit Polls Come True, What'll Be Cong, BJP & JD(S) Leaders' Future?

Going by the exit polls, Siddaramaiah, DK Shivakumar, and HD Kumaraswamy are the leaders to watch.

Karnataka Assembly Election 2023 Voting Latest Updates

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Prominent exit polls on Karnataka elections 2023 have projected a split verdict in Karnataka, though with a slight advantage for the Congress. India Today Axis Polls, however, has projected a clear majority for the Congress. If the predictions are any indication, will the JD(S) emerge as kingmakers in Karantaka once again? Also, what helped or harmed the Congress and the BJP this elections?

Going by the verdict predicted by the majority of the exit polls, it seems, a political scenario similar to the ones that emerged in 2004 and 2018, when no party crossed the halfway mark of 113 of the total 224 Assembly seats, could be the future of Karnataka.

In 2004 and 2018, the BJP had emerged as the single largest party with 79 and 104 seats respectively. Currently, most projections seem to indicate a similar fate for the Congress.

Elections to the Karnataka Assembly were held on May 10 with the counting of votes to be taken up on May 13. The high decibel canvassing by star campaigners of all the  three parties did not seemed to have enthused the voters to come out in large numbers as the polling percentage was at 65.69 percent at 6 pm. The polling percentage in  2018 was 73.13 percent the highest since 1952.

What do the projections hold in store for the leaders of the Congress, BJP and the JD(S)?

Siddaramaiah, DK Shivakumar May Have Different Takes on JD(S)

If the exit projections turn out to be accurate, it will be the biggest blow for the Congress party, which is seeking to return to power after 2013. A clear, simple majority is what the Congress leaders are hopeful for as this would give the party a fillip to face the Lok Sabha elections in 2024 and wrest the seats from the BJP, which has had a winning spree from 2014.

But, if the state offers a split verdict, both the state leaders of the Congress – former Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC) President DK Shivakumar – will be tested.

Siddaramaiah, who is contested from his old constituency Varuna in Mysuru district, was emphatic in all his public speeches that 2023 was going to be his last foray into electoral politics. If he fails to become Chief Minister in 2023, at the age of 75-years, Siddaramaiah who had presented 12 Karnataka budgets as Deputy CM and CM, will have to face a halt to his political career, perhaps permanently.

Moreso, in the event of the Congress once again deciding to  team up  with the JD(S) to cobble up the numbers to form the government, sources close to Siddaramaiah say he would prefer to opt out of the alliance.

In 2018 too Siddaramaiah was reluctant to agree with the Congress High Command's decision to allow JD(S) leader HD Kumaraswamy occupy the CM’s chair. What ensued was an uneasy relationship between the two Kumaraswamy and Siddaramaiah and in the end when Kumaraswamy had to step down, after 17 Congress and JD(S) MLAs defecting to the BJP, he blamed Siddaramaiah for his fall.

But Congress sources don’t rule out the possibility of 61-year-old KPCC President DK Shivakumar being amenable to the idea of a coalition  government  with the JD(S) in the event of a hung Assembly. Though his relationship with former Prime Minister and JD(S) supremo HD Deve Gowda's family has been temperamental, Shivakumar's flexibility to agree to an alliance with the JD(S) stems from the fact that he has more years to play out in the political field compared to Siddaramaiah.

If BJP Falls Short, Central Leadership May Have To Rethink

If BJP’s juggernaut stops at two-digit figures, as predicted by some exit polls, the failure could reflect poorly on the party’s central leadership. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah and BJP President J P Nadda were the driving forces for the BJP in Karnataka elections 2023, not to mention the public rallies and road shows they held from 29 April to 7 May. Shah, who was the main poll strategist, had given a target of 150 seats to the state leadership of the party by initiating the tagline ‘Mission 150.’

BJP’s loss will also indicate that none of  the party’s  last ditch efforts of tweaking the reservation matrix, promoting an aggressive Hindutva  campaign, and sops announced in the poll manifesto  could help mitigate the strong anti-incumbency sentiment it was facing.

Questions could also arise over the Central leadership’s decision to not give tickets to Lingayat leaders including former CM Jagadish Shettar. The BJP national leadership’s decision to cut former Chief Minister BS Yediyurappa to size, after using him to garner Lingayat votes of the party for years, could also be questioned.

Meaning, a loss for the BJP in Karnataka may force the BJP’s national leadership to rethink its electoral strategy in Karnataka.

JD(S)'s HD Kumaraswamy May Emerge Kingmaker

Those who will have the last laugh, in the event of the exit poll projections coming true, will be the Gowda family. Though HD Kumaraswamy had in his campaign been asserting that this time the JD(S) would fare well and be in a position to form the  government on its own by winning  123  seats, his loss could be compensated if he gets a say on who gets to form the government in the state.

Pollsters claim that both the Congress and the BJP are expected to turn to the JD(S) to get the numbers to form the government in the event of a hung Assembly.

But the moot question is who will Kumaraswamy oblige, even though he has been one of the leaders to oppose the BJP’s Hidutva pitch of banning hijab in educational institutions and scrapping reservation for Muslims who used to fall under the Backward Classes list. Indications are that Kumaraswamy may talk to the  BJP once again  to strike a bargain the saffron party, which will be desperate  to  give into his demands as long as it  gets the reins of power again.

(Naheed Ataulla is a senior political journalist based in Bengaluru.)