Upcoming Assembly Bypolls Hold the Key For JD(S)-Cong in Karnataka

On 19 May, the state will see two crucial Assembly bypolls, in Chincholi and Kundgol.

Siddaramaiah (L), Yeddyurappa (C) and Kumaraswamy (R).

(Photo: Shruti Mathur/The Quint)

The two phases of elections for the 28 parliamentary constituencies in Karnataka concluded on 23 April, but political parties in the state are still on their toes. On 19 May, two crucial Assembly bypolls will take place in the state, which many believe will play an important role in the post-poll scenario in Karnataka.

The by-elections will take place in Chincholi (Gulbarga district) and Kundgol (Dharwad district). Both the seats were held by the Congress previously. If the results go in the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) favour, their strength in the Assembly would increase from 104 to 106; only seven short of the number needed to form the government.

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BJP state President BS Yeddyurappa recently claimed there was an "atmosphere" for his party to form government in the state. The Janata Dal (Secular)-Congress camp, too, has raised concerns about the BJP relaunching its ‘Operation Lotus’ to poach their MLAs, making these bypolls an important fight for the coalition.

Taking on the Defector

Bengaluru: Karnataka Congress MLA Umesh Jadhav (right) from Chincholi Assembly segment submits his resignation to Karnataka Assembly Speaker KR Ramesh Kumar at Kolar, near Bengaluru on 4 March 2019. (Photo: IANS)

The bypoll in Chincholi was announced after its legislator, Umesh Jadhav resigned from the Congress and contested the Lok Sabha polls on a BJP ticket. He was one of the five MLAs who were in touch with the BJP during the Operation Lotus 3, during the first week of January. While the other four returned to the party, only Jadhav decided to leave the Congress.

Apart from ensuring the coalition numbers stay intact, for the Congress, the bypoll in Chincholi is also about sending a strong message to the those contemplating defection.

In the 2018 Assembly elections, contesting on a Congress ticket, Jadhav had won the seat with a margin of 26,060 votes. Like several other parts of the state, even in Chincholi, caste plays a crucial role. The major communities in the constituency are Lingayat, Banjara, Scheduled Castes and OBCs. While the SCs and OBCs support the Congress, the Lingayats and Banjaras support the BJP.

However, Umesh Jadhav, who is from the Banjara community, had claimed a large number of the Banjara community had rallied behind the Congress because of him, during the Assembly election.

To take on Jadhav and eat into the Banjara vote bank, the Congress has fielded Subhash Rathod, a former BJP member, who is also from the Banjara community. Senior leaders of the party, too, have been campaigning frequently to ensure Jadhav’s defeat.

The BJP has field Jadhav’s son Avinash from the seat.

Will Sympathy Work for Congress in Kundgol?

The second bypoll will be in the Kundgol Assembly seat, which is going to polls as its representative CS Shivalli died of a heart attack in March. With a sympathy wave in his favour in the constituency, the Congress has fielded the late MLA’s wife, Kusumavathi, in an attempt to retain the seat.

The BJP has fielded Chikkanagouda Patil, who had contested against Shivalli in the last election. The BJP is counting on the fact that Patil lost the poll by only 680 votes. The question, however, remains that whether Patil can override the sympathy wave that is in the Congress’ favour.

The Number Game

Winning these two seats is crucial for the coalition to ensure it has enough seats to keep the BJP at bay. As things stand, the coalition has a total of 116 seats, while the BJP has 104 out of the total 222 (224-2) in the Lower House of the Assembly. If the BJP succeeds in winning these two seats, it will take its tally from 104 to 106.

This would mean that the BJP will only need to get seven coalition MLAs to change camp to topple the government. During its last attempt to destabilise the government, the BJP was in touch with at least five MLAs. And if the party does well in the Lok Sabha elections, there could be an exodus from the coalition, which in turn could bring down the government.

In short, for the Congress, winning the both these seats is crucial to ensure there are no more defections from the party.