Exit Polls 2024: 5 States Where BJP Is Predicted to Make Surprise Gains

Exit poll data released on 1 June, predicted unexpected gains for BJP in several states.

(Photo: The Quint)

Exit polls released on 1 June predict a clear majority for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. These polls, conducted by survey agencies such as C Voter, Axis-My India, and Chanakya in partnership with several news channels, hint at a historic third term for saffron party.

Among the more interesting trends to emerge from these polls are BJP's unexpected gains in states where the party previously had little to no ground.

These states are: West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Punjab, Telangana, and Odisha.

West Bengal 

At least three exit polls have predicted that the BJP will win between 23-31 seats in West Bengal. The party won 18 out of 42 seats in the state in the 2019 general election.

If the current predictions come true, the saffron party will overtake Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress (TMC) to become the single largest party in the state.

The BJP is also predicted to get 26-31 percent vote share, which is an increase of 10 percent from its 2019 tally.

Kerala 

If exit poll predictions come true, the BJP will have much to cheer for in Left's bastion of Kerala. As per the ABP-CVoter poll, BJP is expected to win 1-3 seats, Axis My India predicts 2-3 seats for the saffron party, while Today's Chanakya gave 1-4 seats to the party.

It is pertinent to note that the BJP has never won a seat in Kerala.

Tamil Nadu

Of the 39 seats that went to poll in Tamil Nadu, BJP is predicted to win 1-3 seats as per the India Today-Axis My India exit poll. ABP-CVoter predicted 0-2 seats for the saffron party, while Today's Chanakya gave 10 seats to the party.

In 2019, the BJP drew a blank in the Lok Sabha elections in the state. In 2014, it bagged one seat.

Telangana

As per the exit polls, BJP is expected to make significant gains in Telangana too. While CVoter predicts 7-9 seats for the party, Axis My India and Today's Chanakya are giving 11-12 and 12 seats to the party respectively.

In 2019, the party had only four MPs in the state with a vote share of 19.45 percent.

Odisha

The BJP is expected to make massive gains in Odisha with Axis My India exit poll predicting 18-20 seats for the party and a complete rout for the Biju Janata Dal (BJD).

Today's Chanakya predicts 16 seats for the party, while CVoter predicts 17-19 seats for BJP.

In 2019, the BJP won only 8 out of the 21 seats.

Punjab

Though the gains predicted for the BJP in Punjab aren't very high, they are significant as the BJP contested solo for the first time in over 25 years.

The BJP-SAD alliance broke in 2020 over the farm laws. If the exit polls are true, BJP might win up to four seats in Punjab.

As per the CVoter exit poll, the BJP is expected to win 1-3 seats in the state, while Axis My India and Today's Chanakya predict 4 and 2-4 seats for the party.

In 2019, when it was in an alliance with the Akali Dal, BJP won 2 out of 13 Lok Sabha seats in the state, while the SAD won 2.