Exit Polls 2022 Predict Big Wins for BJP & AAP: How Accurate Were They in 2017?

How accurate were the exit polls in predicting the outcomes for Punjab, UP, Goa, and others in last election?

As the clamorous election period is about to end, the release of exit polls results on Monday, 7 March, has heightened the anticipation for the counting of votes slated for 10 March.

(Photo: The Quint)

As the clamorous election period is nearing its end, the release of exit polls results on Monday, 7 March, has heightened the anticipation for the counting of votes slated for 10 March. The results for the state elections of Uttar Pradesh (UP), Punjab, Manipur, Goa, and Uttarakhand will be announced on the same day.

The post-polling surveys have predicted decisive wins for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in UP and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Punjab. However, their contenders have their hopes pinned on the day of the results to defy the projections.

In light of Monday's exit polls results, let us consider a question: How accurate were the exit polls in predicting the outcomes for the five states in the elections in 2017?

Uttar Pradesh

In the 2017 UP Assembly elections, the BJP had won the majority of the 403 seats in the state, with the Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), and Congress following closely:

• BJP: 312 seats

• SP: 47 seats

• BSP: 19 seats

• Congress: 7 seats

2017 Exit Polls

The exit polls, which were released three days before the actual counting of votes, had predicted a majority for the BJP, but had failed to estimate the overwhelming mandate by which the saffron party went on to win the elections.

The 2017 post-poll analysis by India Today-Axis-My-India had underestimated the BJP's seat share. Here's the seat share predicted by the survey:

• BJP: 251-279 seats

• SP-Congress: 88-112 seats

• BSP: 28-42 seats

The seat share projected by the India TV-CVoter exit polls had been far from the actual trends, and had predicted that the BJP would fail to capture a majority, suggesting a hung Assembly:

• BJP: 155-167 seats

• SP-Congress: 135-147 seats

• BSP : 81-93 seats seats

The exit polls results aired by News24, conducted by Today's Chanakya, had been the closest to the outcome. They had projected a massive victory for the BJP:

• BJP: 285 seats

• SP-Congress: 88 seats

2022 Exit Polls

This year, the exit polls have projected an easy win for the BJP again, with the SP trailing in its wake:

Punjab

Power for the 117-seats strong Punjab Assembly had been contested by the Congress, AAP, Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), and the BJP in 2017. The Congress had emerged victorious on a majority of seats:

• Congress: 77 seats

• AAP: 20 seats

• SAD: 15 seats

• BJP: 3 seats

2017 Exit Polls

The 2017 exit polls for the Punjab had presented a mixed bag, suggesting that the Congress would either win by a small margin or that the party and its chief contender AAP would be neck and neck.

The News24-Today's Chanakya exit polls had predicted that AAP and Congress would be neck and neck:

• AAP: 54 ± 9 seats

• Congress: 54 ± 9 seats

• SAD-BJP alliance: 9 ± 5 seats

The India TV-CVoter exit polls for the border state, which had predicted the AAP forming a majority, had been far from accurate that year:

• AAP: 59-67 seats

• Congress: 41-49 seats

• Akali Dal-BJP: 5-13 seats

The India Today-India-My-Axis post-poll analysis had been the closest to the final results:

• Congress: 62-71 seats

• AAP: 42-51 seats

• BJP-SAD: 4-7 seats

2022 Exit Polls

This year's exit polls predict a massive victory for AAP in the Punjab, with Congress trailing much behind:

Goa 

Goa, which has 40 seats in its state Assembly, had hosted a close contest between the BJP and Congress in 2017, with the latter trumping the BJP by a small margin. AAP, the Goa Forward Party (GFP) and a few others were also in the fray. Here's how many seats each party had attained:

• Congress: 17 seats

• BJP: 13 seats

• AAP: 0 seats

• Others: 10 seats

2017 Exit Polls

The India Today-Axis-My-India post-poll survey had estimated that the BJP would form majority in the coastal state with a slim margin:

• BJP: 22 seats

• Congress: 13-15 seats

• AAP: 3 seats

• Others: 1 seat

Predicting that the BJP may just achieve the number required for majority, the India TV-CVoter exit polls had given out the following projected seat share:

• BJP: 15-21 seats

• Congress: 12-18 seats

• AAP: 0-4 seats

• Others: 2-8 seats

2022 Exit Polls

For this year, most exit poll projections for the state of Goa indicate that there may be a hung Assembly:

Uttarakhand

The 2017 Uttarakhand Assembly elections had marked a sweeping victory for the BJP, with the Congress a far second. Here's the 2017 seat share of each party in the 70-member Assembly:

• BJP: 57 seats

• Congress: 11 seats

• Others: 2 seats

2017 Exit Polls

The India Today-India-My-Axis exit poll results in 2017 had been nearest to accurate that year:

• BJP: 41-46 seats

• Congress: 18-23 seats

The India TV-CVoter projections had been a little off the mark, suggesting that the BJP and the Congress would be neck and neck with each falling short of majority, leading to a hung Assembly:

• BJP: 29 to 35 seats

• Congress: 29 to 35 seats

• Others: 2 to 8 seats

2022 Exit Polls

The exit polls for 2022 have predicted that the seat share will largely be divided between the Congress and the BJP, with the two parties fighting neck and neck:

Manipur

Manipur had seen a hung Assembly in the 2017 state elections, with neither of the top contenders Congress and the BJP managing to win a majority in the state which has 60 seats.

• Congress: 28 seats

• BJP: 21 seats

• Others: 11 seats

2017 Exit Polls

The India TV-CVoter exit polls for Manipur had forecasted a hung assembly, but with the BJP in the lead:

• BJP: 25-31 seats

• Congress: 17-23 seats

• Others: 9-15 seats

The India Today-India-My-Axis post polls survey had been closer to the outcome, predicting that the Congress would lead:

• Congress: 30-36 seats

• BJP: 16-22 seats

2022 Exit Polls

The exit polls have predicted that the BJP will be the single largest party in Manipur for 2022.

The Zee News-Designboxed exit poll predicted that the BJP could return to power in Manipur, with the party likely to win 33-37 seats in the Assembly elections. The India Today-Axis My India survey too predicted that the BJP may win 33-43 seats, while Congress could win 4-8 seats.