Exit Poll Results 2024 LIVE Updates: NDA Headed For Third Term; Big Gains For BJP in West Bengal, South India
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Exit Poll Results of Lok Sabha Election 2024 Live Updates: All major exit polls predicted a resounding victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections which concluded on Saturday, 1 June. The INDIA bloc, meanwhile, is predicted to be the second largest alliance.
While the NDA is set to make unexpected breakthroughs in states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, the BJP is facing a tough fight in Maharashtra.
The Quint brings you results of exit polls by several pollsters including CVoter, India Today Axis-MyIndia, News24-Chanakya, and Republic-P-MARQ among others. Stay tuned with The Quint for live updates!
Here are the exit poll predictions across different parts of India put out by pollsters
According to predictions by CVoter and India Today-Axis My India, the INDIA bloc is expected to win big in all five southern states.
Some polls have predicted inroads for the BJP in Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Telangana. Meanwhile, massive losses are expected for the YSCRP in Andhra Pradesh.
Most polls have predicted between 15-20 seats for INDIA bloc in Maharashtra, while the NDA is expected to win between 30-33 of the 48 seats.
At least three polls have predicted massive gains for the NDA in Rajasthan and Bihar.
Results of PMARQ-Republic exit polls have predicted 359 seats for NDA, while INDIA is expected to get 154 seats.
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Welcome to The Quint's Live Blog!
Hello! Welcome to The Quint's live blog. With media agencies likely to publish the exit poll results for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections shortly, stay tuned with us as we bring you the latest updates, and key takeaways from the results.
Exit Poll Result 2024 Lok Sabha Elections: What, When & Where?
As the high-octane 2024 Lok Sabha elections come to a close, their results are now piquing the stakeholders’ interest.
But before the Election Commission (EC) declares results on 4 June, all eyes are on the exit polls which will start emerging shortly after the voting period officially ends at 5 pm on Saturday, 1 June.
This will shed light on trends on larger polling trends – Will the BJP-led NDA government win a third term, are the odds favouring the INDIA alliance, who will be the next prime minister of our country, among others. Read our explainer here
Which Exit Poll is More Accurate? Experts Answer
While the accuracy of an exit poll is determined by several factors – sampling, questionnaire design, fieldwork, how one collects and interprets data, etc – it is important for any polling agency to release the data and all the details of the poll.
Ashish Ranjan, Co-founder of Data Action Lab for Emerging Societies, claimed that in the last ten years, the focus of exit polls has shifted to only the number of seats a political party is winning, followed by their vote share. “This undermines the larger objective of the exit polls,” he said.
Congress To Boycott Exit Poll Debates
The Congress on Friday, 31 May said it would be boycotting all exit poll debates. In a post on social media platform X, Congress leader Pawan Khera wrote, “will not participate in the debates on exit polls.”
"The results will be out on 4th June. Prior to that, we do not see any reason to indulge in speculation and slugfest for TRP," Khera added.
Congress Takes U-Turn, Says It Will Participate in Exit Poll Debates
Congress spokesperson Pawan Khera on Saturday, 1 June said that the party will participate in exit poll debates. This comes a day after the party announced that it will not take part in the debates.
What Are Exit Polls and Why Is It Done?
One would wonder, what purpose do exit polls solve when the EC declares the result in 3-4 days after polling concludes?
According to Ashish Ranjan, election analyst and Co-founder of Data Action Lab for Emerging Societies (DALES), the larger objective of the exit polls was to understand:
Why a voter polled in favour of a party or candidate.
To Identify a pattern in case this reason varies based on the class, caste, gender, religion, location and education of the voter
Polling For Seven-Phase Lok Sabha Election Concludes
The high-octane seven-phase Lok Sabha elections concluded on Saturday, 1 June, registering a voter turnout of 58.34 percent. Read more here.
Who Are The Pollsters To Track?
The Quint brings you results of exit polls by several pollsters including CVoter, Axis-MyIndia, Chanakya, and P-MARQ among others.
How Are Exit Polls Data Collected?
Pre-poll and post-poll surveys can be conducted in many ways – over the phone, through an app, qualitative, quantitative, etc.
"Nowadays, call centres are roped in. The phone numbers of voters of a constituency are arranged and randomised. Call centre executives call voters, ask a set of questions and record their answers on the computer,” Political analyst Rajan Pandey told The Quint.
On being asked about if the trends on seat share are more important than vote share or vice versa, he explained:
How Accurate Were Exit Polls in 2019?
So before looking at the exit poll figures of these elections, let's see how accurate have the exit polls been in past Lok Sabha elections.
In Tamil Nadu, DMK Likely To Win 20-22 Seats
According to India Today- MyAxis' predictions, in Tamil Nadu, the MK Stalin-led Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam is likely to win 20-22 seats, while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is likely to win between 1 and 3 seats.
BJP: 1-3
DMK: 20-22
AIADMK: 0-2
Congress: 6-8
NDA To Win 359 Seats: Republic Pmarq
According to Republic Pmarq, here are the poll predictions in India:
National Democratic Alliance (NDA): 359
INDIA: 154
Other: 30
In Kerala, A Sweep For INDIA: ABP CVoter
According to ABP Cvoter, here are the seat projections for the 20 seats in Kerala:
NDA: 1 - 3
UDF: 17 - 19
OTHER: 0
BJP To win 20-22 Seats in Karnataka: India Today MyAxis
According to India Today MyAxis, here are the seat projections for the 28 seats in Karnataka:
BJP: 20-22
JDS: 2-3
Congress: 3-5
In Karnataka, NDA To Get 55% Vote Share: India Today MyAxis
According to India Today MyAxis, here are the vote share projections for Karnataka:
NDA - 55%
INDIA: 41%
Others: 4%
A Clean Sweep For INDIA in Tamil Nadu: ABP CVoter
According to ABP CVoter, here are the seat projections for the 39 seats in Tamil Nadu:
NDA 0-2
INDIA 37-39
AIADMK+ 0
OTHER 0
Here Are The Seat Projections By P-MARQ
In Andhra Pradesh, NDA To Win Between 21 & 25 Seats
According to ABP-CVOTER, here are the seat predictions in 25 Lok Sabha seats in Andhra Pradesh:
NDA 21-25
CONG 0
YSRCP 0-4
OTHER 0
BJP To Open Account in Kerala With 2-3 Seats: India Today-Axis My India
According to India Today Axis, here are the seat predictions in 20 Lok Sabha seats in Kerala:
NDA: 2-3
UDF: 17-18
LDF: 0-1
In Telangana, BJP To Win 7-9 Seats: ABP CVoter
According to ABP-CVOTER, here are the seat predictions in 17 Lok Sabha seats in Telangana:
BJP 7-9
CONG 7-9
BRS 0
AIMIM 0-1
In Uttar Pradesh, NDA To Win 69 Seats: Republic PMARQ
According to Republic PMarq, here are the seat predictions for the 80 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh:
NDA 69
INDIA 11
OTHER 0
Seat-share predictions:
NDA 50%
INDIA 39%
OTHER 11%
What Are The Seat Projections In Maharashtra? Find Out Here
According to Republic PMarq, here are the seat predictions for the 48 Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra:
NDA 29
INDIA 19
OTHER 0
In Uttarakhand, A Sweep For BJP: Today's Chanakya
According to News24-Chanakya, here are the seat projections for Uttarakhand:
BJP 5 ± 1 Seats
Congress 0 ± 1 Seats
Others NIL
BJP To Win 26 Seats in Gujarat: News24-Chankaya
According to News24-Chanakya, here are the seat projections for 26 seats in Gujarat:
BJP 26 ± 2 Seats
Congress+ 0 ± 2 Seats
Others NIL
In Bihar, RJD+ To Gain: India Today-Axis My India
In Bihar, while the BJP is likely to win 13-15 seats, the Lalu Prasad Yadav-led Rashtriya Janata Dal is projected to win between 6 and 7 seats, according to the exit poll released by India Today-Axis My India.
BJP: 13-15
JDU: 9-11
RJD: 6-7
CONG: 1-2
A Sweep In Karnataka, Yet Again: ABP-CVoter
In Karnataka ABP-CVoter has predicted a win for the BJP with 23-25 seats. Remember, in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won 25 out of 28 seats. Here's the breakdown for 2024:
NDA 23-25
INDIA 3-5
OTHER 0
48% Vote Share For NDA In Bihar: India Today-Axis My India
Here are the vote share predictions in Bihar:
NDA: 48%
INDIA: 42%
OTHERS: 10%
BJP To Win 6 Seats in Delhi: News24-Today's Chanakya
Out of the seven seats in the national capital of Delhi, News24-Today's Chanakya has predicted that the BJP will win six seats.
BJP 6 ± 1 Seats
Congress+ 1 ± 1 Seats
Others NIL
Vote share
BJP: 52% ± 3%
Congress+ : 44% ± 3%
Others: 4% ± 3%
BJP Gains In Jharkhand: India Today-Axis My India
According to the exit poll results released by India Today-Axis My India, here are the seat share projections in Jharkhand:
BJP: 8-10
AJSU: 0-1
CONG: 2-3
OTHERS: 2-3
BJP Set To Sweep Madhya Pradesh: News24 Today's Chanakya
The BJP is likely to sweep the state of Madhya Pradesh by winning 29 seats, predicts News24-Today's Chanakya.
BJP 29 ± 2 Seats
Congress+ 0 ± 2 Seats
Others NIL
BJP Leads, Congress Gains in Haryana: Today's Chanakya
According to the exit poll predictions released by News24-Today's Chanakya, BJP is likely to win in Haryana with six seats.
BJP 6 ± 2 Seats
Congress+ 4 ± 2 Seats
Others - 0
Here Are The Seat Projections By ABP-CVoter in South India
Here's What Pollsters Are Predicting in Rajasthan
Today's Chanakya
BJP 22 ± 3 Seats
Congress+ 2 ± 2 Seats
Others 1 ± 1 Seats
India Today-Axis My India
State: RAJASTHAN
BJP: 16-19
CONGRESS: 5-7
OTHERS: 1-2
BJP Set To Win in Gujarat: Exit Polls Predictions
The BJP is likely to sweep the state of Gujarat, India Today-Axis My India has predicted.
BJP: 25-26
CONGRESS: 0-1
OTHERS: 0
TODAY'S CHANAKYA - SEATS
BJP: 26 ± 2 Seats
Congress+ : 0 ± 2 Seats
Others: NIL
BJP Makes Gains in Telangana: Todays Chanakya
According to News24-Today's Chanakya's exit poll predictions, the BJP is likely to make significant gains in the state of Telangana.
BJP: 12 ± 2 Seats
Congress: 5 ± 2 Seats
BRS: NIL
Others: 0 ± 1 Seats
SEAT SHARE
BJP: 40% ± 3%
Congress: 38% ± 3%
BRS: 14% ± 3%
Others: 8% ± 3%
TDP Leads in Andhra Pradesh: Today's Chanakya
According to the poll predictions released by Today's Chanakya, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) is likely to win between 22 and 25 seats.
TDP+: 22 ± 3 Seats
YSR Cong: 3 ± 3 Seats
Congress+: NIL
Others: NIL
In Delhi, BJP Set To Win 6-7 Seats: Exit Polls
In the national capital of Delhi, the BJP is set to win six to seven seats, according to poll predictions by India Today-Axis My India.
NDA: 6-7
INDIA: 0-1
OTHERS: 0
Vote Share
NDA: 54%
INDIA: 44%
OTHERS: 2%
Watch | BJP or INDIA Bloc, Who Has the Edge?
Here Are The Seat Projections in North India
BJP Gains in Maharashtra: Today's Chanakya
According to Today's Chanakya's exit poll results, here are the seat projections in Maharashtra:
BJP+ : 33 ± 5
Congress+ : 15 ± 5
Others: NIL
Vote Share
BJP+ : 43% ± 3%
Congress+ : 41% ± 3%
Others : 16% ± 3%
A Clean Sweep For BJP in Himachal Pradesh: Exit Polls
According to Republic-PMARQ's exit poll results, here are the exit poll results:
BJP 4
CONG 0
OTHER 0
UDF Leads in Kerala, BJP Makes Gains: Todays Chanakya
According to exit poll predictions, here are the seat predictions for the 20 seats in Kerala:
UDF: 15 ± 3 Seats
LDF: 1 ± 1 Seats
BJP+: 4 ± 3 Seats
Others: NIL
NDA Likely To Win in West Bengal, TMC Runner-Up: ABP CVoter
According to the ABP-CVoter's exit poll predictions, the NDA is likely to win between 23 and 27 seats in West Bengal.
NDA 23-27
CONG+ 01-03
TMC 13-17
Will INDIA Bloc Sweep South India Or Is The BJP Making Gains? Find Out Here
BJP To Sweep in Haryana: Exit Polls
Here are the exit poll predictions by India Today-Axis My India in the 10 Lok Sabha seats in Haryana:
BJP: 6-8
CONG: 2-4
OTHERS: 0
The BJP's vote share is predicted to be at 48%, and the Congress' at 40%.
BJP Makes Gains in Bihar: Surveys
According to Today's Chanakya's exit poll results, here are the predictions in Bihar.
BJP+ : 36 ± 4 Seats
Congress+ : 4 ± 4 Seats
Others : 0 ± 1 Seats
Which Way Is Western India Likely To Sway? Find Out
DMK-led INDIA To Sweep in Tamil Nadu
According to Republic PMarq's predictions for Tamil Nadu, the DMK-led INDIA alliance is likely to sweep in Tamil Nadu.
NDA 0
INDIA 38
OTHER 1
'India Have Voted in Record Numbers To Re-elect NDA': PM Modi
Soon after several exit poll surveys predicted a sweeping victory for the BJP-led NDA, Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday, 1 June said that the "people of India have voted in record numbers to reelect the NDA government."
In a social media post on X (Formerly Twitter), PM Modi said, "They have seen our track record and the manner in which our work has brought about a qualitative change in the lives of the poor, marginalised and downtrodden."
In Uttarakhand, Big Win For BJP
According to the exit poll results released by India Today-My Axis India, the BJP is winning all five seats in Uttarakhand.
BJP - 5
CONG - 0
OTHERS - 0
BJP or INDIA? Which Way Will North India Sway?
Congress To Win in Jammu & Kashmir: Exit Poll Surveys
According to exit poll predictions released by India Today-Axis My India, here are the seat projections in Jammu and Kashmir.
NDA: 2
CONG: 3
OTHERS: 0
'INDIA Headed For Clear, Decisive Victory': Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge
Shortly after exit poll results predicted a comfortable victory for the PM Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge on Saturday, 1 June, said that the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) was headed for a "clear and decisive victory with at least 295 seats."
Briefing reporters after a 2.5-hour-long meeting with alliance partners, Kharge disclosed that this was based on the party's internal feedback from across the country.
NDA Predicted To Sweep Maharashtra: India Today-My Axis India
According to exit poll results released by India Today-My Axis India, the BJP-led NDA is predicted to sweep Maharashtra. Here are the projections:
BJP - 20-22
Shiv Sena (Led by Shinde) - 8-10
NCP - 1-2
CONG - 3-4
NCP (SP) - 3-5
Shiv Sena (UBT) - 9-11
OTH - 0-2
A Sweep For The BJP In Uttar Pradesh
Here are the exit poll projections by News24-Today's Chanakya in Uttar Pradesh
BJP+ - 68 ± 7 Seats
Congress+ - 12 ± 6 Seats
Others - NIL
INDIA Bloc Gains in Delhi: ABP CVoter
What has ABP-CVoter predicted in Delhi?
NDA 4-6
INDIA 1-3
OTHER 0
BJP Predicted To Win in Bihar
In Bihar, the BJP is predicted to win between 34 and 28 seats, according to exit poll projections released by ABP-CVOTER
NDA 34-38
INDIA 3-5
OTHER 0
BJP Makes Big Gains in West Bengal: Exit Poll Surveys
In a surprise, the BJP is predicted to make big gains in the state of West Bengal.
TMC: 11-14
BJP: 26-31
LEFT:0-2
OTHERS: 0
BJP Predicted To Win 60+ Seats in Uttar Pradesh
According to exit poll projections in ABP CVoter, the BJP is predicted to win over 60 seats in Uttar Pradesh.
NDA 62-66
INDIA 15-17
OTHER 0
Big Gains For BJP in Telangana, BRS Trails: India Today-Axis My India
The BJP has managed to make huge inroads into the state of Telangana, if exit polls are to be believed.
NDA: 11-12
INDIA: 4-6
BRS: 0-1
AIMIM: 0-1
The BJP has also increased its vote share to 43%, while the BRS' share has been reduced to 13%. Meanwhile, the Congress, which is in power in Telangana, has a predicted vote share of 39%.
PM Modi-Led NDA Headed For Hattrick: Exit Polls
According to exit poll projections, the PM Modi-led NDA is headed for a hattrick.
ABP CVoter
NDA 353 -383
INDIA 152 - 182
OTHER 4-12
Today's Chanakya
BJP 335 ± 15 Seats
NDA 400 ± 15 Seats
Congress 50 ± 11 Seats
INDIA 107 ± 11 Seats
Others 36 ± 9 Seats
In Andhra Pradesh, TDP-BJP Alliance Predicted To Win
According to the India Today-Axis My India's exit poll projections, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) is likely to win between 13 and 15 seats.
BJP: 4-6
YSRCP: 2-4
TDP: 13-15
OTHERS: 0
Big Loss For BJD in Odisha: India Today-Axis My India
In a setback for the Naveen Patnaik-led Biju Janta Dal (BJD), the BJP has made huge inroads in Odisha, according to India Today-Axis My India's exit poll projections.
BJP: 18-20
BJD: 0-2
INDIA: 0-1
OTHERS: 0
Which Way Will Central India Sway? Find Out What Pollsters Have to Say
NDA Predicted To Win Over 350 Seats: India Today-My Axis India
Here are the exit poll projections of India Today-My Axis India for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections
NDA: 361-401
INDIA: 131-166
OTH: 8-20
Losses For Congress in UP, BJP Predicted To Win: India Today-Axis My India
In Uttar Pradesh, the BJP is predicted to win between 64 and 67 seats, whereas the Congress will suffer losses and is predicted to win only 1-3 seats.
BJP: 64-67
SP+: 7-9
CONGRESS-1-3
BSP: 0-1
'For Tamil Nadu, This Is Just a Beginning...': State BJP president Annamalai
After multiple exit polls predicted that the BJP will open its account in Tamil Nadu, state BJP president K Annamalai told news agency ANI:
Watch | BJP-JD(U) Set to Win, But With Fewer Seats Than 2019
'Exit Poll Has Been Prepared In The BJP's Office': AAP MP Sanjay Singh
After the exit polls predicted a resounding victory for the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, AAP's Rajya Sabha MP Sanjay Singh told news agency ANI:
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Published: 01 Jun 2024,06:02 PM IST