Congress 8, BJP 3 in Chhattisgarh. But Jogi Is X-Factor: Survey

Congress 8, BJP 3 in Chhattisgarh. But who gains from Ajit Jogi’s decision not to contest Lok Sabha polls?

(Photo: Kamran Akhter/The Quint)

The Congress had swept Chhattisgarh in the Assembly elections last year, winning 68 out of 90 seats, reducing the BJP to just 15 seats in a state it had ruled for 15 years. This was a huge turnaround from the 2014 Lok Sabha elections in which the BJP won 10 out of 11 seats in Chhattisgarh. In fact in the 2018 Assembly elections, the Congress led in 10 Lok Sabha seats while the BJP led in just one.

According to the survey conducted by Poll Eyes in early March, the Congress’ lead in Chhattisgarh has reduced a little. The survey says that the party is ahead in eight seats while the BJP is ahead in three.

The vote share prediction gives a better idea of the BJP’s improvement since the Assembly polls. According to the survey, the BJP’s vote share has increased from 33 percent in the Assembly elections held in November 2018 to 41 percent in March. However, the Congress’ vote share is also predicted to have increased from 43 percent to 44 percent.

The gains appear to be largely at the expense of independents, smaller parties and the alliance between Ajit Jogi’s Janata Congress Chhattisgarh and the Bahujan Samaj Party.

If we go seat-wise, according to the survey:

• BJP is ahead in three seats: Janjgir-Champa, Kanker and Bilaspur
• Congress is ahead in eight seats: Sarguja, Raigarh, Korba, Rajnandgaon, Durg, Raipur, Mahasamund and Bastar.

However, the lead on all the seats is less than 10 percent, so even a minor swing could change the outcome.

Jogi the X-Factor

A major factor that could change equations in Chhattisgarh is Ajit Jogi’s announcement that his party will not contest the Lok Sabha polls.

The people who voted for the JCC will now be faced with the choice of backing the BSP or going with Jogi’s former party Congress or voting for the BJP. The choice that these voters make would be crucial in determining the final tally from Chhattisgarh.

The maximum impact of JCC’s decision will be felt in Lok Sabha seats like Bilaspur and Korba, where the party’s influence is the greatest. These also happen to be areas where there is maximum concentration of Satnamis – a Scheduled Caste community which is said to be Jogi’s main vote bank. On the other hand, the impact will be comparatively lower in the tribal dominated districts in the extreme north and south of Chhattisgarh.

There are two other X-factors that could alter the equations in Chhattisgarh.

1. If the BJP’s rise continues the way it has over the past three months.
2. Possible gains for the Congress due to Rahul Gandhi’s Nyunatam Aay Yojana or NYAY Scheme as well as the party’s promises to farmers. For instance, in its manifesto, the Congress has promised a separate Kisaan Budget and that loan default by farmers won’t be treated as a criminal offence. Welfare schemes helped BJP’s Raman Singh stay in power for three terms in Chhattisgarh so the Congress’ promises could have a significant impact.

Given these three X-Factors – Jogi’s withdrawal, BJP’s momentum and Congress’ promises – the final tally in Chhattisgarh could be different from what has been predicted by the survey.

(Survey methodology: The survey was conducted in February in all Assembly segments across 10 states. 50 respondents were interviewed at different locations in each Assembly segment, using random stratified sampling.)

Do read out other survey stories from Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Haryana, Jharkhand, Odisha and Gujarat.