Jogi-Maya Alliance in Chhattisgarh May Well Flatter to Deceive

The Ajit Jogi-Mayawati alliance has created quite a buzz but numbers suggest it won’t get to be the kingmaker.

BSP supremo Mayawati (R) and Chhattisgarh Janata Congress President Ajit Jogi.

(Photo: TheQuint)

Just about a couple of months ahead of the Chhattisgarh Assembly election, a new prospect came to the fore. Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Ajit Jogi’s Chhattisgarh Janata Congress (CJC) forged an alliance that got political pundits considering new equations.

Will the alliance dominate the tribal votes? Will it emerge as the eventual kingmaker? Is it more of an alliance or a dalliance? And is it a threat to the prospective mahagathbandhan against the BJP in the larger scheme of things?

Speculation is rife but the alliance is definitely enjoying a lot of buzz. But is there enough substance to back that? Numbers suggest, it might well flatter to deceive.

WHICH GROUND IS JOGI-MAYA HOPING TO BREAK?

The BSP-CJC alliance roped in the Communist Party of India (CPI) too in its fold and the collective is contesting in all 90 seats of the state. However, the vote base of Mayawati and Ajit Jogi would converge in the 10 seats reserved for the Scheduled Caste (SC) category and the alliance would fancy their chances there.

WHO DOMINATES THE SC SEATS NOW?

In the last Assembly election in 2013, the BJP won a whopping 9 out of the 10 seats in this reserved category, while Congress managed to bag just one seat – Masturi. The fact that in the total tally, BJP (49 seats) and Congress (39 seats) were separated by 10 seats, underlines how crucial these seats proved for Raman Singh.

ISN’T THE THEN ALLIANCE A DIRECT THREAT TO BJP?

It could have been, had they decided to ally with the Congress. While Ajit Jogi did not fight the previous Assembly election as a separate entity, BSP did and the 2013 numbers suggest Mayawati’s best bet would have been to walk with the Congress.

In 3 out of the 10 seats in the reckoning here – Sarangarh, Mungeli and Bilaigarh – BSP garnered more votes than the BJP’s margin of victory in them and thus, an alliance with Congress could have seen them crossing the mark.

In another seat, Pamgarh, BSP in fact came second behind BJP. While electoral politics does not work in terms of simple arithmetic of transfer of votes, it is still one of the best yardsticks to discuss possibilities.

WILL THE ALLIANCE PROVE INCONSEQUENTIAL?

Going by the numbers again, and sadly so for the new alliance, it might well. In the last election, the BJP didn’t just win 9 out of these 10 seats, it won them convincingly. In 8 out of the 10 seats, the margin of victory, in terms of vote percentage, was more than 6.5 percent.

Further, the vote percentage share of BJP was about 9 percent more than that of the Congress, as far as SC reserved seats are concerned. The margin is striking, as in overall terms, the BJP led Congress by just 0.75 percent of the votes.

Further still, big margins of victory were quite a trend in the last election. The BJP defeated Congress by more than 10,000 votes in 23 seats while the Congress effected similar victories over BJP in 21 seats. So, just about the majority mark of the assembly, it showed a very decisive mood in the last election.

Now, Mayawati’s BSP received 4.27 percent of the total votes in 2013. In fact, its vote share has oscillated in the 4 to 6 percent range in Chhattisgarh. Even if the party matches its best performance – 6.1 percent in 2008 state election – it seems unlikely to make any significant difference. While it might affect the vote shares of BJP and Congress, it remains doubtful if that will translate into seats.

OKAY, THAT’S MAYA. BUT WHAT ABOUT JOGI?

What Jogi brings to the alliance’s table is votes of the Satnami sect and in the larger picture, his image among the tribal population. Satnamis are crucial to the road to Raipur as they constitute a big chunk of the of the 12.8 percent SC votes in the state. While Jogi still remains, arguably, the tallest political leader of the sect, Congress staged quite a coup by getting Satnami sect guru Baldas and his son Khushwant to join the party ahead of elections. Congress also has another religious leader of the sect, Rudra Kumar, in its ranks.

In the 2013 Assembly polls, Satnam Sena, a political outfit floated by Baldas, had contested elections on 21 seats. The party was not allowed a symbol and failed to win a single seat but played spoilsport for the Congress by eating into its SC votes, says a News18 report.

As far as his impact in the broader tribal base in concerned, he will have to pull a lot of weight in order to become a force of reckoning. In the last election, Congress won 18 out of 29 seats reserved for the Scheduled Tribes (ST).

Not just that, the Congress’s penetration into tribal votes was notable as its winning rate was better in seats with a high tribal population than seats with a lower tribal population, an Economic and Political Weekly report finds out. The report shows out of the 35 seats with a tribal population of 40% and above, the Congress won 22 (63%) and the BJP only 13 (37%).

Just like the BJP won SC-reserved seats by thumping margins, Congress did so in ST-reserved ones. Of the 18 seats won by Congress in this category, the margin of victory in terms of vote percentage is less than 5 percent in just 2 cases.

Furthermore, the third constituent of the alliance, CPI, is strong in the Naxal-dominated region – where once again Congress had won by comfortable margins last time.

In a nutshell, thus, the strong voter bases of all three parties of the alliance have run into constituencies where the sitting MLAs had won by big margins in 2013. Unless the Jogi-Maya combine springs a surprise, in the true sense of the word, it may well turn out be an also-ran.

(With inputs from News18 and Economic and Political Weekly)