BJP’s Blueprint for UP: Nationalism in West, Plan B for East?

The 80-seat Uttar Pradesh will go for polling in seven phases for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

Image used for representational purposes only.

(Photo: Rythum Seth/The Quint)

After the announcement of Lok Sabha election dates, the Opposition raised doubts over the polling schedule.

Bharatiya Janata Party’s campaign strategy for the 80 seats in the Uttar Pradesh, even before the announcement, seems to be in line with the declared dates.

Instead of eastern UP, BJP has shifted its focus to western UP, which is scheduled to go to polls in the first phase out of the total seven phases.

‘Nationalism Card’ in Western UP?

Western Uttar Pradesh, also known as ‘Jatland’ is known for communal violence and is more sensitive to communal tension. There have been multiple instances in the past where small issues have sparked conflicts between people from different religions.

The Muzzafarnagar and Meerut riots from five years ago can be seen stemming from the same issue. Few political parties are also known to survive on these tensions and it is a big factor during voting.

The area had witnessed extreme polarisation before the previous Lok Sabha elections too and after the Muzzafarnagar riots, the BJP was able to swipe the majority class in the area.

However, this time, BJP seems to have a weaker hold on the 'Jatland' or western UP in comparison to eastern UP.

After losing to SP-BSP-RLD coalition in Kairana bypolls, challenges for BJP has increased manifold. The voting for 16 Lok Sabha seats in this area will take place in two phases. However, this time, instead of using communal polarisation, BJP has inclined towards nationalism.

Strong Strategy Before Announcement of Election Dates

Compared to eastern UP, BJP has focussed more on western UP. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and many major leaders of the party have visited western UP quite a few times in the last month.

PM Modi has announced important schemes in the area along with his rally.

Few political forecasters hint that BJP might have been aware that elections are going to start from this area even before the schedule was announced.

File image of Prime Minister Narendra Modi(Photo: PTI)

Although the BJP aims for the entire Uttar Pradesh, party strategists assume a good start will make the rest of the phases easier. They seem to have set their players on the field even before the announcement of the election dates. As a result, the BJP which was not less prominent in western UP, is now visible on front-foot, causing the Opposition to raise doubts over the elections dates.

Plan B for Eastern UP

After Jatland, Rohilkhand and middle UP will go for voting.

Moradabad, Rampur, Sambhal, Firozabad, Mainpuri, Etah, Budaun, Aonla, Bareilly and Pilibhit are due in the third phase of the schedule.

The fourth phase will witness polling in Shahjahanpur, Kheri, Hardoi, Misrikh, Unnao, Farrukhabad, Etawah, Kannauj, Kanpur, Akbarpur, Jalaun Jhansi and Hamirpur.

It is said that the Yadav family has good influence in two areas and might be a problem for BJP. However, there will be a four-day gap between the third and the fourth phases.

According to the political forecasters, BJP will stress on its campaign during this interval and will try to maintain the wave of nationalism till the fourth phase. In failing to do so, BJP might act on its plan B – playing the Ram Mandir card.

The Supreme Court has given eight weeks time to the mediation panel and has directed the panel to not leak any information regarding it. The panel is expected to reach some decision by May and Saffron parties might take advantage.

Political experts say that by the time Ram Mandir issue will again make news, 14 seats of Ayodhya region will go for polling in the fifth phase. The Opposition feels BJP has kept the election dates accordingly.

Except the atmosphere this Lok Sabha elections, everything else is similar to the previous elections. Last general elections witnessed a Modi wave in the entire country along with UP, which, however, is not the scenario this time. Nevertheless, BJP's political strategists are trying their best to turn the atmosphere in their favour.

The selection of the Lok Sabha election dates this year are very crucial, especially for the Uttar Pradesh dynamics. Sixth and seventh phases will witness majority of the votes from eastern UP where BJP has a good hold.

However, this time BJP will have to fight Congress’ Priyanka Gandhi as well along with SP-BSP.

(This story was originally published on QuintHindi and has been translated by Mridula Arya)