PM Modi's Anti-Pakistan Rhetoric: Will It Help BJP in 2024 Elections?

Experts say invoking Pakistan may not just be linked with national security but also at creating a religious divide.

During an election rally in Karnataka's Bagalkot on Tuesday, 30 April, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that his government had killed terrorists by entering their home turf: "This is naya Bharat (new India), Ghar mein ghus ke maarega (kills inside one's enemy's territory)."

(Photo: Namita Chauhan/The Quint)

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's invocation of Pakistan and cross-border terrorism in multiple election rallies over the last few days shows that playing the 'nationalism card' remains an essential segment of the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) electoral ammunition.

During an election rally in Karnataka's Bagalkot on Tuesday, 30 April, Modi said that his government had killed terrorists by entering their home turf: "This is naya Bharat (new India), Ghar mein ghus ke maarega (kills inside one's enemy's territory)."

Addressing an election rally in Maharashtra's Latur on the same day, Modi cited the 26/11 Mumbai terror attack to say:

"At the time of the Congress regime, news headlines used to be about India handing over another dossier to Pakistan about terror activities and terrorists. It used to be big news. Some of our friends in the media used to clap after any such a dossier was sent."

In a rebuttal to Modi's attacks, Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge wrote an open letter to the prime minister last week urging him to seek votes on the basis of his government's performance instead of indulging in "hate speeches".

Kharge added that when the elections are over, people will remember Modi as the prime minister who gave "divisive and communal speeches filled with lies" to escape defeat.

Despite that, speaking at a rally in Gujarat's Anand on Thursday, 2 May, the prime minister took a dig at Congress leader Rahul Gandhi saying that Pakistan is hopeful for the "shehzaada" to replace Modi as India's PM.

"We know that the Congress is a mureed [disciple] of Pakistan. This partnership of Pakistan and the Congress has now been completely exposed. The enemies of the country don't want a strong government in India," he said.

Modi's statements came in the backdrop of Pakistan foreign policy spokesperson Mumtaz Zahra Baloch urging Indian politicians not to drag the country into their election speeches.

In a statement on 26 April, Baloch had said, "Indian politicians need to cease their reckless practice of bringing Pakistan into India's populist public discourse for electoral motives."

Modi's Speeches Reminiscent of BJP's 2019 Election Campaign

The BJP's fervent anti-Pakistan rhetoric is reminiscent of its campaign trail ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections – when there were heightened tensions between the two countries over the Pulwama suicide attack by a Jaish-e-Mohammed militant that killed 40 Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) jawans on 14 February of that year, and the airstrikes conducted by India in Pakistan's Balakot 12 days later in response to the attack.

A number of analysts had argued that the Balakot incident had added an edge to the BJP's campaign ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha polls – which until the time of the strikes were being looked upon by political pundits as a close contest.

A pre-election survey conducted by Lokniti in March 2019 had predicted that the Balakot airstrikes were among three decisions taken by the Modi government between 7 January and 26 February of that year which had the ability to change the course of the election. The other two were the announcement of the PM-KISAN scheme and 10 percent reservation for economically weaker sections (EWS).

According to the Lokniti survey, four out of five respondents interviewed had heard about the Balakot airstrike, and among them the preference to see Modi as prime minister was as high as 46 percent.

Several BJP leaders capitalised on the situation, admitting that the strikes had added bountiful gains to the party's strength ahead of the election.

These included former Karnataka Chief Minister BS Yediyurappa, who said a day after the Balakot incident that the air strikes had led to a "Modi wave" across India and would help the party win 22 out of 28 Lok Sabha seats in Karnataka.

On the other hand, former Jammu and Kashmir Governor Satya Pal Malik had claimed in an interview that the Pulwama terror attack occurred due to lapses on the part of the country's security apparatus, and that the incident was "politicised" by PM Modi for electoral benefits.

Will the Nationalism Card Reap the Same Benefits for BJP in 2024? 

While many believe that the Balakot strikes and the concomitant anti-Pakistan propaganda was one of the factors that contributed to the BJP's win in 2019, experts argue that the saffron party should not live under the illusion that the "nationalism card" will attain similar benefits in the 2024 elections as well.

"Using national security as an electoral tactic has been done by the BJP in the past and will be done in the future as well. But playing this card won't influence voters much ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections," Himanshu Roy, professor of political science at Jawaharlal Nehru University, said while speaking to The Quint.

Roy says that highlighting past incidents like Balakot is just an attempt by Modi to remind people that his government takes care of national security. "However, it's just like old wine in a new bottle," he adds.

Similarly, others argue that the reason invoking Pakistan won't make much of a difference electorally for the BJP this time around is that there isn't a charged atmosphere between the two neighbouring countries as there was ahead of the previous Lok Sabha elections.

"The benefits of the nationalism card may not be as evident compared to 2019 because there's no 'sharp hook', so to speak, for taking a hard line on Pakistan," Michael Kugelman, Director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington DC, told The Quint.

"There's no compelling immediate reason why it's important to be tough on Pakistan on the campaign trail because you don't have a crisis with Pakistan playing out right now – unlike what happened in 2019. Things have been relatively quiet between the two countries."

Michael Kugelman

Following a new low in ties triggered by India's decision to abrogate Article 370 in August 2019 – which had led to a complete halt to trade and diplomatic exchanges between India and Pakistan – there has been a glimmer of hope between the countries in the last few years.

For one, a ceasefire that was inked between New Delhi and Islamabad in February 2021 has been successfully observed even three years after it was signed. Furthermore, the Indus Waters Treaty is being respected by both sides and there has been no disruption in religious pilgrimages through the Kartarpur Corridor.

The Other Side of Playing the Nationalism Card

Experts argue that Modi's constant evoking of Pakistan may not just be linked with national security, but also at purportedly creating a religious divide ahead of the elections.

"While the Opposition uses the border dispute with China to attack the Centre, the latter uses the Pakistan card because there is a historical legacy involved. Also, the moment you say the word 'Pakistan', it evokes words like 'Islam' and 'Muslims'. That kind of psyche is used to mobilise voters," Roy said.

During an election rally in Rajasthan last week, Modi had drawn the ire of the Opposition for saying that the Congress had declared that Muslims have the first right on the country's resources, and that if elected to power the party would re-distribute people's property and land among members of the minority community.

In another rally in Telangana on Wednesday, 1 May, Modi said that he would not allow reservations meant for Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes to be given to Muslims "as long as I am alive".

"One could argue that the BJP's Islamophobic messaging and raising of issues like nationalism and Pakistan are attempts by the party to cover all its bases, and persuade some voters who may yet be undecided regarding which party they want to cast their ballot for," Kugelman said.

India's Response to Allegations of Extrajudicial Killings Overseas

The BJP's assertion of nationalism is also evident in the way the government has reacted to allegations of its role in extrajudicial killings on foreign soil.

Allegations made by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau last year of India's purported hand in the murder of Khalistani extremist Hardeep Singh Nijjar were met with a sharp condemnation and unequivocal denial by the Ministry of External Affairs.

A similar response was meted out to the US after it claimed that an Indian government official had planned the assassination of separatist leader Gurpatwant Singh Pannun in New York. On Thursday, 30 April, the Indian government also slammed a report by The Washington Post which named the alleged Research and Analysis Wing official involved in the alleged plot.

However, India's response to allegations of similar covert murders in Pakistan drew a starkly different response.

The Guardian had reported on 5 April that India had carried out around 20 assassinations of individuals on Pakistani soil since 2020. Most of those targeted were convicted terrorists purportedly associated with militant groups involved in attacks against India, the report claimed.

While the MEA denied the allegations as being "false and malicious propaganda", Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, when questioned about the media report in an interview with News18, said:

"If any terrorist from a neighbouring country tries to disturb India or carry out terrorist activities here, he will be given a fitting reply. If he escapes to Pakistan we will go to Pakistan and kill him there. Muh tod jawaab denge (We will give a befitting reply)."

Subsequently, The Guardian published an article saying that Singh's comments appeared to be an admission of India's role in covert assassinations in Pakistan.

Normally, media reports highlighting alleged illegal killings undertaken by India would be looked upon as being harmful to the Centre's reputation and bring ignominy upon it; but experts suggest that the reports are conversely quite beneficial to the BJP and add to its "muscular nationalism" narrative.

"Such media reports have reaped major electoral benefits to the BJP in recent weeks. It is quite ironic given how critical the BJP is of the western media and constantly accuses them of election meddling and maligning the party," Kugelman told The Quint.

"What the BJP can do with these media reports is two things: It can say that western media is propagandistic and is trying to malign India. Or it can use it to its advantage: BJP supporters can point to these reports and say, 'Look how strong India has become – it shows just how far India is willing to go to curb threats from overseas'. And that's a big difference from what we saw with the Congress."

Michael Kugelman