In UP, Close Fight Between INDIA Bloc & NDA: Who's Winning These Key Seats?

As counting of votes continue, INDIA bloc has surpassed NDA's tally in Uttar Pradesh.

As per early trends in UP, BJP is leading in over 40 seats and INDIA is close to 30 seats.

(Photo: Aroop Mishra/The Quint)

Assessing the trends on Tuesday, 4 June, there seems to be a some shockers for Uttar Pradesh, electorally most crucial state which sends out 80 Lok Sabha MPs. Congress' Smriti Irani is all set to lose Amethi as KL Sharma looks at reclaiming their bastion.

While the NDA leads in 39 seats, the INDIA bloc is gaining ahead in 40 seats, making it a neck-to-neck fight. Chandrashekhar of the Azad Samaj Party is leading in Nagina.

• Other important trends indicate that PM Modi is leading in Varanasi, from where he is eyeing for a third consecutive term.

• BJP's Smriti Irani is all set to lose Amethi as Congress' KL Sharma is leading a margin of over 1 lakh votes.

• Congress' Rahul Gandhi is leading in Raebareli seat.

• Samajwadi Party's Dimple Yadav is also leading in Mainpuri constituency.

• Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav is trailing from Kannauj seat in Uttar Pradesh.

• BJP candidate Ravi Kishan is leading from Gorakhpur seat in Uttar Pradesh, as per early trends.

• BJP's Arun Govil is leading in Meerut seat.

• BJP leader and actor Hema Malini is leading in Mathura constituency.

• Union Minister Rajnath Singh seems to be taking a lead in Lucknow.

• SP's Dharmendra Yadav from Azamgarh is leading.

• Hema Malini from BJP is leading from Mathura.

You can read all our election results coverage here.

NDA Close; Leading in Over 30 Seats

Meanwhile, NDA is leading in over 30 seats, as per the latest reports.

Merely three days ago, the much-awaited exit polls predicted some big wins for the BJP in Uttar Pradesh, while also laying down a prognosis of wins that INDIA bloc could gain in the state.

It's a high-stakes battle for BJP in UP, where they need to bag more seats, in UP, the caste arithmetic and equations, local issues, but despite the Ram mandir issue being exploited for the elections, it doesn't seem to have helped them as substantially as they would have expected, the trends suggest.

BJP's triumph in UP would suggest that not only have they defeated the anti-incumbency wave but issue of farmers protests, the Lakhimpur Kheri violence, the mammoth fiasco of electoral bonds has not worked against them but their welfare schemes along with PM Modi's popularity seem to have made a mark.

Among the seats which are seeing a high-stakes fight are Varanasi with PM Modi eyeing a third term, Rajnath Singh in Lucknow, Congress' Rahul Gandhi in Raebareli and Akhilesh Yadav hoping to win Kannauj.

The BJP fielded candidates in 75 seats, leaving five for its smaller allies. Within the INDIA bloc, the Samajwadi Party contested 62 seats, Congress 17 seats, and the Trinamool Congress one seat.

The BJP-led alliance includes the Rashtriya Lok Dal, the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party and the NISHAD Party.

The ruling-BJP is contesting 75 seats, the RLD and SBSP two each, and the NISHAD party just one seat. Meanwhile, SP is contesting 62 seats and the Congress in 17 seats. The BSP was not part of the INDIA bloc this time.

The election was a bipolar competition between the NDA and the INDIA bloc. Last time, the BJP managed to uproot the Congress from Amethi, resulting in an embarrassing defeat for Congress president Rahul Gandhi.

Did Exit Polls Get it Right for UP?

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP-led NDA won 62 of the state's 80 seats, with the BSP and Samajwadi Party, then allies, winning 10 and five seats, respectively.

The major exit polls such India Today-Axis My India predicted 64-67 for BJP and 8-12 for INDIA bloc.

The BJP is expected to secure 46% of the vote share, while the Samajwadi Party and Congress are expected to secure 30% and 9% vote share respectively, as per Axis My India exit poll.

Even News24-Chanakya predicted 68 (-/+) 7 seats for the BJP and 12 (-/+) seats for the Congress. While on the other hand, 62-66 for NDA and 15-17 for INDIA.

Looking at the early trends, however, it looks like the gap was overstated and the margin is growing narrower between the possible seats the Opposition may gain.

Last time in UP alone, the NDA won a total of 64 seats. In 2019, Akhilesh Yadav's Samajwadi Party won 5 seats, only BSP gained 10 seats and Congress retained only one seat i.e. Raebareli.

In the Hindi belt, the BJP’s vote share decreased marginally in the 2017 state assembly election. Its vote share was predicted to decrease substantially in the 2019 general election. But, that did not happen, their vote share increased significantly to a historic high of 51%.

The exit polls in 2004 predicted that the NDA led by Atal Bihari Vajpayee was going to form the government with a comfortable victory of 240-275 seats. The UPA won 216 seats and the NDA won 187 seats.

Following demonetisation, the UP Assembly elections had exit polls predicting ahung assembly buy contrary to these prognosis, BJP won with an overwhelming 325 seats.

Even in 2014, exit polls predicted a win for the BJP-led NDA but suggested that it will fall short of a majority between 260-289, but NDA ended up securing 336 seats and BJP alone crossed the majority mark back then.