Elections 2023: How Accurate Were Exit Polls in Tripura, Meghalaya & Nagaland?

We test the accuracy of different exit polls who delivered varied predictions after the voting concluded.

How Accurate Were Exit Polls in Tripura, Meghalaya & Nagaland?

(Photo: The Quint)

The final results of the Assembly elections in Tripura, Meghalaya, and Nagaland are finally out.

The BJP-IPFT coalition have retained their majority in Tripura and the saffron party's alliance with NDPP is also confirmed to return to power in Nagaland. No single party has managed to cross the majority mark in Meghalaya, where NPP has emerged as the single-largest party.

Now, let's test the accuracy of the exit polls conducted by different pollsters and news channels - and how their varied predictions fared on Counting Day.

Exit polls are usually seen as an indicator of polling trends. Sometimes, they are proven to be in sync with the final results, but on other occasions, they have ended up being inaccurate.

How Accurate Were the Exit Polls in Tripura Assembly Elections 2023?

The exit poll of Axis My India predicted that the BJP-led alliance will sweep the state of Tripura, winning 36-45 seats in the 60-member Assembly and that the Left-Congress coalition will win 6-11 seats. The TIPRA Motha Party (TMP) was predicted to win 9-16 seats according to the poll.

The Matrize exit poll, on the other hand, predicted 29-36 seats for the BJP-led alliance, 13-21 for the Left and Congress alliance, and 11-16 for the TMP.

The Times Now-ETG poll predicted 21-27 seats for BJP-IPFT, 18-24 seats for Left-Cong, and 12-17 for TMP.

And here are the actual results on Counting Day:

Total: 60 seats

• BJP-IPFT: 33

• Left-Congress: 14

• TMP: 13

All the exit polls were right in predicting that BJP-IPFT alliance will win the highest number of seats, but only Matrize's exit poll could forecast the range of the seats accurately.

Did Meghalaya Exit Polls Get It Right?

Most exit polls had predicted that while the National People's Party (NPP) will get the highest number of seats in the Meghalaya Assembly election, it won't be able to garner a clear majority.

According to the Matrize exit poll, the NPP would win 21-26 seats in the 60-member House, while the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) would win 8-13.

The poll also stated that the BJP will get 6-11 seats, Congress 3-6 seats, the United Democratic Party (UDP) 5-6 seats.

Axis My India, on the other hand, predicted 18-24 seats for the NPP, 6-12 for the Congress, 4-8 for the BJP, 8-12 for the UDP, and 5-9 for the AITC.

The TimesNow-ETG poll predicted 18-26 seats for the NPP, 3-6 for the BJP, 2-5 for the Congress, 8-14 for AITC, and 8-14 for UDP.

And here are the actual results on Counting Day:

Total: 59/60 seats

• NPP: 25

• Congress: 5

• AITC: 5

• UDP: 11

• BJP: 3

• Others: 10

Matrize and Times Now-ETG managed to predict the correct seat-range of NPP. Only Axis My India got the numbers right for AITC. UDP's numbers were correctly predicted by Times Now-ETG and Axis My India. Only Times Now-ETG got the seat-range of BJP correctly. Congress' seat-range was forecasted accurately by Matrize and Times Now-ETG.

How Close Were the Exit Polls in Nagaland Elections?

Most exit polls for the Nagaland Assembly elections had predicted a clean sweep by the BJP and its ally, the Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP).

According to the Matrize exit poll, the BJP+ would win 35-43 seats in the 60-member Nagaland Assembly.

The Congress, on the other hand, was predicted to win a meagre 1-3 seats, while the Naga People's Front got 2-5, according to the poll. Others were predicted to win 0-17.

The Times Now-ETG poll also stated that the BJP-NDPP alliance will sweep the state with 39-49 seats, whereas the NPF and Congress will win 4-8 and 0 seats, respectively. Others were predicted to win 6-17.

And the Axis My India poll predicted 38-48 seats for the BJP-led alliance, 3-8 seats for the NPF, and 1-2 seats for Congress. Others were predicted to win 5-15.

And here are the actual results on Counting Day:

Total: 60 seats

• BJP+NDPP: 37

• NPF: 2

• NPP: 5

• NCP: 7

• Others: 9

Only Matrize could accurately predict the seat-range of the BJP-NDPP alliance and NPF. And only Times Now-ETG could predict that Congress won't win even a single seat. All the pollsters were able to forecast the seat range of Others correctly.

All in all, the exit polls mentioned in this article were more or less accurate in their predictions this time around – they got the winning party and coalitions right on all three states, and their seat predictions were not off the mark by much either.