Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Four Factors That Will Decide West Bengal Results

Absence of INDIA in the state, and a competition between TMC and BJP's welfare schemes are some of the factors.

West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee's TMC and PM Modi's BJP are in a heated contest in the state. 

(Photo: Kamran Akhtar/ The Quint)

West Bengal is one of the three states that has had polling in all seven phases of the general election. The state is a battleground for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) with the party trying to better its 2019 tally of 18 seats. It is a prestige battle for the Trinamool Congress (TMC) ahead of the 2026 state elections where party supremo Mamata Banerjee will seek re-election for a fourth term. Ceding ground to the BJP would put them at a disadvantage in the run up to the state elections.

Ahead of the last phase in West Bengal, several factors would have played a part in sealing the fate of the two parties in the state. First, will the state once again witness differential voting in state and national election like in 2019 and 2021? Second, will BJP hold on to its fort in North Bengal? Third, will the TMC’s welfare-centric campaign retain its women voters? Finally, will the lack of an opposition alliance in the state give the BJP a significant advantage?

In this article, we will discuss all four factors.

Modi vs Mamata

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP had won 128 of the 294 assembly segments in the state, while the TMC won 158. At the time, the BJP had secured approximately 40 percent of the vote share and with the TMC being ahead by three percentage points at 43 percent.

In the 2021 assembly elections, the BJP won 77 seats with its vote share dropping to 38 percent. Meanwhile, the TMC bettered its 2016 performance by winning 215 seats and 48 percent vote share.

An important reason for the difference in the BJP and TMC voting patterns in the 2019 and 2021 election is the fact that voters, like in many other states, identified the difference between a national and state election. The 2019 election which, much like this one, was being fought on Prime Minister’s face, swung some seats, and considerably reduced margins in others.

For example, one of the key regions that demonstrated this is the SC/ST- dominated belt of Junglemahal which consists of the Purulia, Jhargram, Bankura and East and West Medinipur districts. The region accounts for a total of eight parliamentary seats and about 40 assembly segments. In 2019, the BJP won five of these, winning in 31 assembly segments. In 2021, the TMC hit back winning 25 assembly seats in the region.

What is significant is that two of the three seats that the TMC won in 2019- Tamluk and Kanthi- were won by members of Suvendu Adhikari’s family. Suvendu has since shifted to the BJP and is the leader of opposition (LoP) in the West Bengal assembly.

He defeated Mamata Banerjee by a narrow margin from Nandigram in 2021. In his bastion, Suvendu may impede the TMC from repeating its 2021 performance given the Modi factor.

In this election, both parties have tried to consolidate the SC/ST vote. For example, to woo voters from the community, the TMC, ahead of the elections, relaunched its ‘Tapashilir Sanglap’ programme that helped it consolidate SC/ST votes in the 2021 elections. As a part of the programme, TMC leaders were to go across the state to tribal dominated and areas and promote the impact of welfare schemes like Laxmi’r Bhandar that gives tribal women 200 rupees more as opposed to the general category. At the same time, they also highlighted the alleged mistreatment of the tribal community in BJP-ruled states.

The BJP, on the other hand, has made reservations a poll issue, assuring the SC/ST communities that their reservations will not be “given away to minorities”.

The outcome of these eight seats these will be key in deciding which party comes out on top in the state.

Will BJP retain all of North Bengal?

In both the 2019 and 2021 elections, the BJP did exceedingly well in the eight parliamentary seats in North Bengal, and the corresponding assembly segments. It won seven of the eight Lok Sabha constituencies in 2019. In 2021, though its performance dipped from 2019, the BJP won 25 of the 42 seats in the region.

It has been far from a smooth ride for the saffron party in this region this time around as it was fraught with factionalism. In the Alipurduar seat, for example, sitting MP John Barla, was replaced by Manoj Tigga. This led to a rebellion of sorts by Barla who refused to campaign for Tigga. Similarly, the BJP’s Raiganj MP, Debasree Chaudhuri, was shunted to the Kolkata South seat after district leaders dissented against her. In the Darjeeling seat, Bishnu Prasad Sharma, who is an incumbent BJP MLA contesting as an independent, may queer the pitch for the BJP. A factional war between BJP Bengal chief Sukanta Majumdar and LoP Suvendu Adhikari may also cost the former.

Much like Junglemahal, North Bengal is an important region for the BJP to sweep if it wants to better its 2019 tally.

Laxmi’r Bhandar vs Sandeshkhali

Unlike nationally where the Modi government is handling anti-incumbency, in West Bengal, it is the TMC that is fighting anti-incumbency after three terms of being in power. To tide over this, the TMC has depended on its welfare schemes, specifically its flagship Laxmi’r Bhandar scheme for women. As per the scheme, female heads of households get a monthly income support of 1,000 rupees while SC/ST families receive 1,200 rupees. The TMC is using this scheme to retain its women vote, sections of which- especially poor and marginalized groups- have stuck with the party since 2011.

The BJP, on the other hand, has made the issue of alleged mass rapes and land grab in Sandeshkhali one its main campaign planks against the TMC. The saffron party has termed the Sandeshkhali saga as a crime not just against women but specifically against tribal women, who form a significant part of Sandeshkhali’s population.

Women form 49 percent of West Bengal’s electorate. Of this, in 2021, 50 percent supported the TMC while 38 percent supported BJP.

Will lack of an INDIA alliance in the state help BJP?

The unravelling of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) in West Bengal, may prove to be detrimental for both TMC and the Left-Congress alliance, especially with respect to the seats that went to polls in the third and fourth phase. In seats like Malda Uttar, Malda Dakshin, Jangipur, Murshidabad and Berhampore, a fight between the Congress-Left and the TMC could queer the pitch for both. The entire belt was once a Congress bastion with the TMC and BJP making inroads over time. In the 2019 elections, the Congress won two of these five seats, TMC won two and BJP won one. In the seats where the TMC won, it gained at the expense of the Congress-Left. In Malda Uttar, where BJP won, the Congress and TMC cut each other’s votes in a predominantly Muslim constituency. In Malda Dakshin too, the Congress won by a wafer-thin margin. In Berhampore, the Congress’ vote share reduced by almost 5 percent at the behest of the TMC.

With the BJP paying special attention to candidate selection in these seats, the lack of an INDIA alliance could come back to bite both Mamata Banerjee and the Congress’ Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury.