Ajit Pawar's Defeat in Maharashtra is Bigger Than It Looks: 4 Factors Show Why

Getting lesser votes in own Assembly seat, votes not transferring to BJP: A closer look at Ajit Pawar's losses.

(Photo: Facebook/Ajit Pawar)

"I fell short. The voters didn't back us. Eventually you have to accept the mandate of the people in a democracy," said Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) leader and Maharashtra deputy CM Ajit Pawar in a press conference held on Thursday, his first public appearance two days after the results of the Lok Sabha elections.

By winning eight of the 10 seats in Maharashtra, Sharad Pawar has settled the debate on the real NCP. But what's more uncertain than ever is the future of Ajit Pawar and his NCP. By winning just one out of the four seats it contested and a 3.6 percent vote share overall, his gamble of joining hands with the BJP has not only jeopardised the fate of the MLAs who joined him but also that of the ruling Mahayuti alliance in the state.

(Graphic: The Quint)

In the past two days, the rumblings within Ajit Pawar's NCP have been quite visible. Even though he was present at the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) Parliamentary meet on Friday, and also shared the stage with PM Narendra Modi, his absence from the NDA meet held a day after the results did not go unnoticed.

But how did Ajit Pawar and his NCP land in the position that it is currently in? If one looks at the blueprint of the performance of both NCP's, it's clear how.

Supriya's Baramati Win is Historic, Numbers Show

More than anybody else, it was for the staunch supporters of the NCP that Baramati was the most crucial battle. Torn between two Pawars for the first time ever, the verdict in Baramati was to be the most significant one to settle the debate on the 'real NCP'.

But make no mistake, it was the toughest battle of both Sharad Pawar and Ajit Pawar's political careers.

Sule won by a margin of over 1.58 lakh votes against Ajit Pawar's wife Sunetra. Despite this being her fourth consecutive Lok Sabha election, the 2024 battle saw the highest number of votes polled for Sule.

Graphic: The Quint

In 2009, her first Lok Sabha election, she received 4,87,827 votes and 66.46 percent vote share. The votes polled for her every election only increased gradually. This time, Sule received 732,312 votes and a 51.85 percent vote share. In the past three elections, the runner ups in Baramati have maintained a share of over 40 percent votes, with Sule retaining an average vote share of over 51 percent.

A higher number of votes and retaining her average vote share this time signifies more people came out to vote and voted for Sule than they usually would.

But what is interesting to note is that even in the Baramati Assembly constituency where Ajit Pawar himself is an MLA, Sule led by a margin of about 47,000 votes against Sunetra.

What's also pertinent to note is that out of six Assembly seats in Baramati, two are with the BJP (Daund and Khadakvasla) and two with Ajit Pawar's NCP (Baramati and Indapur). In the two seats which are with the Congress (Purandar and Bhor), Sule was ahead of Sunetra in both.

The defeat in Baramati becomes more peculiar for Ajit Pawar, considering most office-bearers and party workers sided with him when the NCP split in June 2023. In his relentless campaigning for his wife Sunetra, the narrative began with emotional appeals and eventually got murkier with allegations of intimidation of voters.

At least 26 complaints were lodged with the Election Commission by Sharad Pawar's NCP regarding money distribution, bogus voting, and pressure tactics a day before and on the day of polling in Baramati.

Ajit's Lakshadweep Candidate Gets Just 201 Votes

Since 2009, the Congress and the NCP have contested elections in Lakshadweep separately despite an alliance nationally.

Since 2014, a united NCP won the constituency twice consecutively, until this election when both NCPs fielded their own candidates.

Graphic: The Quint

While incumbent MP Mohammed Faizal, who sided with Sharad Pawar after the split, got 23,079 votes, Ajit Pawar's candidate Yousuf TP got just 201 votes (0.41 percent).

Faizal lost the seat to the Congress by 2,647 votes.

Ajit Pawar Cut to Size by Both Fadnavis & Voters

In June 2023, Ajit engineered a coup against Sharad Pawar, took over the NCP, and joined hands with the BJP to become the deputy chief minister of the state.

In subsequent months, much to the dismay of Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena, Ajit Pawar negotiated key portfolios for his party. With himself becoming the joint deputy CM and also taking over the finance ministry, portfolios like agriculture, food, consumer affairs, women and child development, sports, medical education, and disaster management were also bagged by the NCP in the cabinet. Ajit Pawar also took over as the guardian minister of Pune region.

In subsequent verdicts by the Election Commission and the Speaker, he won the party name and 'clock' symbol, which was used in his bid to further strengthen the 'real NCP' argument.

But come seat-sharing talks for Lok Sabha, Ajit Pawar got just four seats for the party, a significant drop from the 19 it had contested in 2019 and the lowest ever contested by the clock symbol in the history of the NCP since 1999.

Graphic: The Quint

The BJP and the united NCP were in a direct battle in 8 seats in 2019, out of which the BJP won seven. This time, Sharad Pawar's NCP won five of them. Clearly, the traditional votes of NCP, as Fadnavis would have hoped while forging the alliance with Ajit Pawar, did not get transferred to the BJP.

While justifying the takeover of the NCP, Ajit Pawar argued that the party had deteriorated under Sharad Pawar in the last few years due to poor decision-making, miscoordination, and favoritism. Ajit Pawar, at several points, has also blamed the 'ways of party functioning' for it losing the national party status with the Election Commission.

The performance of Sharad Pawar's NCP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, however, has have demolished several of these arguments in the minds of the voters.

Parties in Mahayuti Stare at Uncertainty

What will be interesting to watch in the coming months is the fate of the Mahayuti in Maharashtra ahead of the upcoming Assembly elections, with unrest in each party following the election results.

The absence of five of his MLAs from the meeting on Wednesday has already made headlines. Many senior leaders of Sharad Pawar's NCP, including Rohit Pawar, hinted that as many as 17-19 MLAs of Ajit Pawar's NCP want to return to Sharad Pawar.

Amid chatter of his possible return given his past record, party chief Sunil Tatkare, also the only candidate who won the Raigad seat, assured the media that the party is united.

"Misinformation is deliberately being spread that our MLAs are in touch with Sharad Pawar. I assure you that all our MLAs are with us and we are one team. Such rumours and fake videos were being circulated even during elections," Tatkare said.

The BJP, meanwhile, is facing its own struggles after it won just nine of the 27 Lok Sabha seats it contested. With Fadnavis' strategies being largely perceived as political blunders, he has offered to resign as the deputy CM in order to 'work fully to revive the BJP's fortunes' ahead of the upcoming elections.

But while the bargaining power of both Ajit Pawar and Fadnavis stands largely compromised, Fadnavis still has the vote share of the BJP on his side which saw a dent of less than 1 percent despite the drastic drop in the number of seats.

Shinde's position, meanwhile, seems to have strengthened in the alliance while having the best strike rate of the three parties, also neck and neck with Uddhav's Sena, and a significant vote share of 13 percent despite contesting lesser seats than Sena (UBT).

And while parties of the Mahayuti introspect, the Maharashtra Congress and Sharad Pawar, for now, are being perceived as the most stable parties in Maharashtra.